WP3: Linkages of Arctic climate changes to lower latitudes

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Presentation transcript:

WP3: Linkages of Arctic climate changes to lower latitudes EU H2020 Blue-Action WP3: Linkages of Arctic climate changes to lower latitudes Yongqi Gao, Guillaume Gastineau and WP3 Partners

Arctic Warming Kug et al. 2015 Figure 1 | SAT trends and Arctic temperature (ART) indices. a,b, The linear trend in surface air temperature during December–February for the periods 1979/1980–1997/1998 (a) and 1997/1998–2013/2014 (b) from the observed DATA. Arctic warming (winter) has decadal variations. Kug et al. 2015

AMO (1870-2015) https://climatedataguide.ucar.edu/climate-data/atlantic-multi-decadal-oscillation-amo

PDO (1900-2016) http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/elnino/decadal/pdo.html

Objective To investigate the Arctic warming impact and its modulation by the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and Interdecadel Pacific Oscillation (IPO) on the Arctic warming impact since 1979 by using specifically-designed coordinated multi-model experiments (both Atmosphere General Circulation Models and Coupled Climate Models)

Coordinated AGCM Experiments (T3.1) External forcing: CMIP6 Boundary forcing: Daily SIC and SST from HadISST.2.2.0.0 (http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadisst2/) Ensemble size:minimum 5 members for high resolution models or 20 members for standard resolution.

Coordinated AGCM Experiments (T3.1) Exp1: Daily SIC and SST from 1979 to present Exp2: daily SIC climatology in Arctic or Northern Hemisphere (mean of 1979 to present) and daily-varying SST from 1979 to present Arctic warming impact =Exp1 minus Exp2

Coordinated AGCM Experiments (T3.1) Exp3: daily-varying SIC from 1979 to present and time- varied daily SST (1979 to present) with PDO signal removed in Pacific (25oS-60oN) (25oS-Bering Strait) (Transition zone: 35oS to 25oS in Pacific sector) Impact of PDO =Exp1-Exp3 Exp4: daily-varying SIC from 1979 to present and time- varied daily SST (1979 to present) with AMO signal removed in North Atlantic (0-60oN) (tropical-Greenland- Iceland-Scotland Ridge) )(Transition zone: 10oS-0 in Atlantic sector) Impact of AMO=Exp1-Exp4

Coordinated AGCM Experiments (T3.1) Boundary Forcing is available for Exp.3 and Exp.4

Jennifer Mecking1, Sybren Drijfhout1, Malcolm Roberts2 Atmosphere model setup: Unified Model (UM), GA7.1 N216, approx. ½° latitude by ¾° longitude SST SIC # ensemble members Exp1 Inter-annual 10 Exp2 mean 1979-2014 Exp2 early mean 1979-1983 5 Exp2 late mean 2010-2014 Exp3 Inter-annual no PDV 5 computing Exp4 Inter-annual no AMV Jennifer Mecking1, Sybren Drijfhout1, Malcolm Roberts2 1 University of Southampton at National Oceanography Centre, Southampton UK 2UK Met Office, Exeter UK

EC-Earth AMIP & Reanalysis Mean AMET of the entire series from 20N to 90N of EC-Earth, compared with the results from reanalysis products (see WP2). Yang, Ronald, Gijs, Jisk & Wilco from Netherlands eScience Center

Coordinated AOGCM Experiments (T3.2) Constrain/nudge the Arctic sea ice concentration, the Pacific and the Atlantic SST in AOGCM Sea surface temperature; albedo; surface heat flux; model bias

Suo et al. 2017, Environ. Res. Lett. Sea Ice Free Arctic Slows Down the Projected Warming over the North Atlantic Suo et al. 2017, Environ. Res. Lett.

Experimental Design

Annual SAT Changes

Conclusions Sea-Ice free Arctic contributes to the projected NA warming minimum by weakening the AMOC. The weakened AMOC is sustained by the weakened wind stress and by a freshening of the ocean surface layer in the sub-polar North Atlantic Ocean.

IPSL+CNRS-EPOC (Juliette Mignot & Didier Swingedouw) contributions to WP3 T3.3 Impact of Arctic Ocean freshening on Northern Hemisphere climate: IPSL-CM6 still not frozen We plan to run IPSL-CM6 model with surface nudging and including FW input for the period 1900-2015. We plan also to make historical simulation with such a freshwater input for detection-attribution purpose We want to understand pathways of freshwater release around Greenland by the use of passive tracers Two postdocs will arrive this spring: Marion Devilliers will help to develop freshwater release based on new estimate provided by Jonathan Bamber (agreement from him on this aspect) and Jason Box (data received) Mohamed Ayache, expert in passive tracers, will do passive tracer simulations using IPSL-CM6 (1°) and also GLORYS reanalysis (1/4°)

Coordinated AGCM Experiments (T3.4) Repeat T3.1 with improved scheme for surface heat flux

WP3 Talks Richard Davy (NERSC): Measuring Arctic amplification Jennifer Mecking (UoS): The Simulated Atmospheric Response to Changes in Sea Ice Extent