Jan Freeke Glasgow City Council

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Presentation transcript:

Jan Freeke Glasgow City Council BSPS Annual Conference 2008 Stream: Local Authority, Census and Planning Housing Tenure Change in Scotland A comparison between 1991-2001 and 2001-2006 Jan Freeke Glasgow City Council

Housing tenure change in Scotland Reason for Interest: Application of cohort component method to forecast social rented housing demand in Glasgow showed significant differences between rates of change before and after 2001. Therefore a need to investigate housing tenure change in Scotland.

Cohort Component Method

Housing tenure change in Scotland Two central questions: How different are the rates of change before and after 2001? What are the components of this change? Data Sources: 1991 Census and 2001 Census for changes 1991-2001 Scottish Household Survey for changes 2001-2006 Scottish Longitudinal Study for components of change 1991-2001 This presentation: focus on social rented sector in Scotland Three aspects: Changes in population by age Changes in population (age 16-74) by economic status Changes in households by type

Housing tenure change in Scotland Conclusions: Decline in social rented housing is only partly due to tenure shift Decline is also influenced by natural change (age cohorts) and migration Most important differences 2001-2006 as compared with 1991-2001: Reduced annual loss for younger people Reduced annual reduction for employed people Reduced annual reduction for larger households There are indications that some of these changes are due to factors other than tenure shift

Housing tenure change in Scotland Methodological Comments: Tenure change tends to be measured in terms of households by tenure. It would be beneficial to also measure change in terms of population, and their characteristics. Scottish Longitudinal Study data allow changes to be broken down by component, which contributes to a better understanding of recent tenure change. A better understanding of recent tenure change will assist in the projection of future tenure change, both in terms of numbers and composition of households and population by tenure.