Applied Physics Laboratory MURI Presentation David Jones May 21, 2002 11/14/2018 Applied Physics Laboratory

Applied Physics Laboratory Overview The Navy forecaster environment TAF Information TAF Workflow Model Preliminary Conclusions Visualization improvements 11/14/2018 Applied Physics Laboratory

Applied Physics Laboratory The Work Conditions The forecaster desk Limited space Multiple monitors and data sources 11/14/2018 Applied Physics Laboratory

Forecaster Interactions Customer service Interruptions Multiple tasks 11/14/2018 Applied Physics Laboratory

Applied Physics Laboratory Forecaster Support The AG observer Helps anchor the model predictions Forecaster backup 11/14/2018 Applied Physics Laboratory

Creating a TAF: Info Used Product Source MM5 Numerical Model UW Atmos web site GOES West TAF and METARS AFWIN NOGAPS (altim settings) JMV Local observations Observer & ASOS 11/14/2018 Applied Physics Laboratory

Applied Physics Laboratory Time with Information Info Sources Time (sec) % Total Wordpad 541 32.5 MM5 472 28.3 NOGAPS (altim settings) 370 22.2 Satellite 126 7.6 TAFS & METARS 109 6.6 Observer 45 2.7 ASOS 2 0.1 11/14/2018 Applied Physics Laboratory

Applied Physics Laboratory MM5 Breakdown MM5 Product Time (sec) % Total 12 km domain, 3 hour precipitation 218 46.2 36 km domain, SLP, 10m winds, 925 mb temp 137 29.0 4 km domain, SLP, 10m winds, 925 mb temp 117 24.8 11/14/2018 Applied Physics Laboratory

A TAF Workflow Model Review Satellite Review Num. Pred. SPIN-UP Check model initialization against satellite & obs Uncertainty Review local TAFS Confirm Check specific model fields Decisions Write TAF parameters Submit TAF 11/14/2018 Applied Physics Laboratory

Preliminary Conclusions Heavy reliance on UW MM5 web site Small portion is used most: loops EFS not used, yet Verification of past forecasts not done Concern with model initialization vs. sat & obs Tools at hand does not make this easy Biggest uncertainty for the TAF is whether to stick with model or offset it 11/14/2018 Applied Physics Laboratory

Visualization Improvements What we can’t do Use the “New Paradigm” as a framework for vis. tools Support where uncertainty is largest 11/14/2018 Applied Physics Laboratory

Applied Physics Laboratory Future Work Analysis of current tapes More CTA NWS Additional Navy forecast center Based on CTA develop a prototype interface that includes the verification system & EFS Test of multi-monitors & curved screen (Psych, APL & MS) 11/14/2018 Applied Physics Laboratory