Presidential Elections and the Market

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Presentation transcript:

Presidential Elections and the Market The Impact of Presidential Elections on the S&P 500® Eisenhower to Obama

Stock Market Reaction to Presidential Elections Eisenhower 1952 to Obama 2012 S&P 500 Return on the day after the election Year President 1-Day Change 2012 Obama -2.4% 1980 Reagan -1.8% 2000 W. Bush -1.6% 2008 Obama* -1.4% 1974 Nixon Resigns 1956 Eisenhower -1.0% 1984 -0.7% 1992 Clinton 1988 H. Bush 1972 Nixon -0.6% 1964 Johnson 0.0% 1968 0.2% 1952 0.3% 1975 Ford Assassination Attempt 1960 Kennedy 0.4% 1976 Carter 0.5% 2004 1.1% 1981 Reagan Assassination Attempt 1.3% 1996 1.5% 1963 Kennedy Assassination 4.0% *Net change from 11/3/2008 to 11/5/2008. On Election Day, the market rose 4.1% only to fall 5.3% on the day after the election.

Electoral College and Popular Vote Results Trump vs. Clinton 2016* Candidate Party Electoral Votes Popular Donald Trump Republican 276 59,215,097 Hillary Clinton Democratic 218 59,390,851 *Election results as of November 9th, 2016 8:00AM

Electoral College and Popular Vote Results Eisenhower 1952 to Obama 2012 Year Candidate Party Electoral Votes Popular Votes 1952 Dwight D. Eisenhower Republican 442 33,936,234 Adlai E. Stevenson Democratic 89 27,314,992 1956 457 35,590,472 73 26,022,752 1960 John F. Kennedy 303 34,226,731 Richard M. Nixon 219 34,108,157 1964 Lyndon B. Johnson 486 43,129,484 Barry M. Goldwater 52 27,178,188 1968 301 31,785,480 Hubert H. Humphrey 191 31,275,166 1972 520 47,169,911 George McGovern 17 29,170,383 1976 Jimmy Carter 297 40,830,763 Gerald R. Ford 240 39,147,973 1980 Ronald Reagan 489 43,899,248 49 36,481,435 Year Candidate Party Electoral Votes Popular Votes 1984 Ronald Reagan Republican 525 54,455,075 Walter F. Mondale Democratic 13 37,577,185 1988 George H. Bush 426 48,886,097 Michael S. Dukakis 111 41,809,074 1992 William J. Clinton 370 44,909,889 168 39,104,545 1996 379 47,402,357 Robert J. Dole 159 39,198,755 2000 George W. Bush 271 50,456,002 Albert A. Gore 266 50,999,897 2004 286 62,028,285 John F. Kerry 251 59,028,109 2008 Barack Obama 365 66,862,039 John McCain 173 58,319,442 2012 332 62,616,535 Mitt Romney 206 59,090,075

Appendix RISK DISCLOSURES ANALYSIS METHODOLOGY INDEX DEFINITION The performance exhibits are generic and educational in nature, and do not pertain to your actual portfolio. The exhibits were designed to illustrate the relationship between risk and return, and the uncertainty of stocks relative to bonds. Market risk is the risk that the value of an investment will decrease due to moves in market factors. Securities of small companies are often less liquid than those of large companies. As a result, small company stocks may fluctuate relatively more in price. Foreign securities prices may decline or fluctuate because of: (a) economic or political actions of foreign governments, and/or (b) less regulated or liquid securities markets. Investors holding these securities are also exposed to foreign currency risk (the possibility that foreign currency will fluctuate in value against the U.S. dollar). ANALYSIS METHODOLOGY Back-tested performance is provided for informational purposes only and does not represent actual performance. It is strictly hypothetical. Actual performance may have been materially lower and future performance may be materially lower. Results also do not reflect actual trading and market factors that could have impacted a client’s or Asset Dedication’s decision-making process. No matter how positive historical audits have been over any time period, the potential for loss is always present due to factors which may not be accounted for in the historical audit. The nature of a back-tested audit creates the potential for a financial professional to select superior performance results in order to get the desired audit results. INDEX DEFINITION An index is list of stocks provided by an index provider that tracks a given segment of the investment universe s and serves as a benchmark against which performance and characteristics are measured. Indices are not available for direct investment; its performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio. The S&P data are provided by Standard & Poor's Index Services Group. The S& P 500 is an index consisting of 500 stocks, which are weighted by market value. Its performance is thought to be representative of the stock market as a whole and provides a broad snapshot of the overall U.S. equity market.  

Disclosures Asset Dedication, LLC is a registered investment adviser located in San Francisco, California. Asset Dedication may only transact business in those states in which it is registered, or qualifies for an exemption or exclusion from registration requirements. Asset Dedication’s written disclosure statement discussing Asset Dedication’s business operations, services, and fees is available from Asset Dedication upon written request. Asset Dedication does not make any representations as to the accuracy or completeness of any information prepared by any unaffiliated third-party. Past performance is not a guarantee of future investment results. Investing in securities involves the risk of loss, and there is no assurance that any investment will be profitable. Historical performance results for investment indices and categories generally do not reflect the deduction of transaction and custodial charges, nor the impact of taxes; the incurrence of which would have the effect of decreasing performance results. Asset Dedication and Dimensional Fund Advisors are not affiliated with each other. Dimensional Fund Advisors is an investment advisor registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Consider the investment objectives, risks, and charges and expenses of the Dimensional funds carefully before investing. For more complete information about the Dimensional funds, please read the prospectus carefully before investing by calling Dimensional Fund Advisors collect at (310) 395‐8005 or at www.dimensional.com. Dimensional funds are distributed by DFA Securities LLC, an affiliate of Dimensional Fund Advisors, 6300 Bee Cave Road, Building One, Austin, TX 78746.