Crystal Ball Richard Norris.

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Presentation transcript:

Crystal Ball Richard Norris

Creation Invented by Decisioneering Based in Denver, 1986 Develop packages for companies to better assess risk In 2000, became international; London / Frankfurt, Germany

Crystal Ball History Created in 1986 - 1st project of Decisioneering 1998, launched Crystal Ball Pro Won: 1998 Risk and Insurance Magazine Software Award 1999, created Open Crystal Ball - Platform independent version

Facets of American Industry Oil and gas Financial Services Aerospace Transportation Environmental Waste Assessment Portfolio Planning Sales Forecasting Pharmaceuticals

Oil & Gas BP, Chevron, Shell Analysis of oil reserves Petroleum Price Amount of oil to extract Number of oil wells

Pharmaceuticals Pfizer, Johnson & Johnson, Merck Prospective new product effectiveness NPV / IRR Net Present Value / Internal Rate of Return New product lines

Environmental Woodward Clyde, Golder Associates, EPA Management nuclear waste storage Groundwater contamination Cleanup analysis Sensitivity**

Monte Carlo……. “casino?!” Random Number Utilizer!!!! Flexible, easily modified Convergence rate of error~ (1/√(N)) N = number of random number iterations

Quotes "I found the software very versatile - whether developing patient treatment models or performing cost analyses." -- Dr. Brian Murphy, Director, Clinical Studies Program, St. Vincents Hospital and Medical Center "Crystal Ball is a very flexible tool that allows very quick stochastic analysis. It allows for transparency and inclusion of uncertainty into any analysis." -- Jack Kloeber, Director, Portfolio Management, J&J "Doing a business case analysis without Crystal Ball is like driving with your lights off at night." -- Chad Lander, Senior Financial Analyst, Sprint

References www.crystalball.com Intro O.R. textbook Wikipedia.org