Talent Advantage Series Cameron Macht DEED Labor Market Information Office Regional Analysis & Outreach www.mn.gov/deed/data/ April 11, 2018

Labor Force Constraints From 1976 to 2001, Minnesota gained +993,000 workers Average of about +40,000 new workers per year From 2001 to 2017, Minnesota gained +218,402 new workers Average of about +13,650 workers per year Region 5 gained +23,317 workers from 1990-2017 +19,967 workers from 1990-2001 +3,350 workers from 2001-2017 Region 5 now has 83,576 workers Peaked at 85,035 in 2010

Projected Labor Force Changes From 2020 to 2030, Minnesota is projected to gain +73,525 workers Average of about +7,350 workers per year This includes a big decline in 55-64 year old workers Huge increase in Millennials and workers aged 65 & over! Region 5’s labor force is projected to decline slightly from 2020-2030 Similar growth for Millennials Huge loss of 45-64 year olds Less growth in 65-74 year olds Similar growth 75 years & over Tight labor markets are now recognized as one of the most significant barriers to growth 0.9 jobseekers per vacancy in 2017

Employment Disparities Minnesota has significant employment disparities for minority groups; but it’s getting better Closing these gaps is crucial! Participation rates are lower and unemployment rates are higher for: Younger workers Workers with disabilities People with lower educational attainment The challenges we face over the next decades are so great we’ll need to tackle them with a multi-pronged approach to attract and retain workers of all demographic characteristics Getting the American Indian unemp rate down to the white rate (4.7%) would fill over 200 jobs; Hispanic rate down to white rate would fill 70 jobs; some other race & two or more races rate down to white rate would fill about 40 jobs – by itself, that would fill over 300 jobs without adding to the labor force

Racial Diversity Region 5 is relatively non-diverse, but increased racial diversity will be a key component of growth White population is much older than minority population State Demographic Center projects that the minority population will grow +37.3%, compared to +4.1% for whites (primarily due to aging) Region 5’s population growth was mostly due to a natural increase 1,945 more births than deaths Only 1.5% of the county’s population is foreign- born (state = 7.7%) Largest number is from Latin America

Commute and Labor Shed Region 5 is a net labor exporter (more people than jobs) 47,166 people both live & work in Region 5 14,950 people commute in Otter Tail, Beltrami, Hubbard, Stearns 24,809 people commute out Stearns, Hennepin, Benton, Otter Tail Workers are commuting to jobs in health care, manufacturing, educational svcs.

Economic Growth Region 5’s economy is growing steadily Added nearly +4,500 net new jobs (+7.4%) since 2000 (state = +9.5%) Added +3,362 net new jobs (+5.5%) from 2009-2017 (state = +11.9%) +232 jobs (+0.4%) from 2016-2017 (state = +1.1%) Health care & social assistance (11,065 jobs) is the largest industry +1,118 jobs Retail Trade & Acc. & Food Services Provide 28.4% of jobs! Low wages, growth Manufacturing and Transportation are less concentrated here than in the state Lost jobs since 2007

Workforce Demographics Different sectors rely on different age groups Accommodation & Food Services; Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; and Retail Trade utilize younger workers Transportation; Other Services; Utilities; Real Estate; and Educational Services have the oldest workers The workforce is aging over time – more workers aged 55 years & over

Wage Growth Median wages have been rising across the board, for all age groups Rising fastest for the youngest workers; though they have the lowest wages New opportunities have opened since 2011; more job mobility & wage competition Accommodation & Food Services Hours are also up!

Wage Growth Wages are lower in Region 5 – North Central than the state Lowest median hourly wage of any region (Twin Cities = $21.55) $1.78 below Region 7W $2.08 below Region 7E $1.24 below Region 4 Wage gaps are relatively small for lower-paying occupations; but large for high- paying jobs

Job Vacancies Job vacancies in Region 5 support the picture of a strong labor market with extensive job opportunity Averaging about 2,700 job vacancies over the past 4 years Record level of 4,117 vacancies in Qtr. 2 2017 (Qtr. 4 2017 = 2,397) Postsecondary education requirements have not changed dramatically over time – typically between 25% and 40% of vacancies… But wage offers are climbing From $10.95 in Q4 2014 to $12.16 in Q4 2017 http://mn.gov/deed/jvs

Occupations in Demand Over 200 occupations in demand in Region 5 Ranging from short-term on-the-job training to advanced degrees Northwest Minnesota region is projected to gain nearly 9,250 net new jobs from 2014-2024 61,000 replacement openings Largest growth in health care and support; sales & related; personal care & service; and construction & extraction Declines in production; office and admin. support; manage- ment; education, training & library; and farming https://mn.gov/deed/eo/

Cost of Living Tool $47,040 (state = $55,200) Hourly Wage = $15.90 What is the basic needs cost of living budget for a typical family? $47,040 (state = $55,200) Hourly Wage = $15.90 mn.gov/deed/col/ Find out how much it costs to make it from county to county Regions, EDRs, Counties One full-time worker | Two full-time 2,080 hours | 4,160 hours Cost of living for a Single person with no children = $28,692 Required Hourly Wage = $13.79 Median hourly wage offer was $12.16 8 of the 14 industries had median wage offers lower than that in Qtr. 4 2017…

Regional Profiles Demographics Labor Force Incomes, Wages Occupations https://mn.gov/deed/data/regional-lmi/northwest-lmi.jsp Demographics Labor Force Incomes, Wages Occupations Economy Manufacturing Profiles Local Look blog posts https://mn.gov/deed/data/locallook/ northwest/northwest-blog.jsp

THANK YOU! Questions? Cameron Macht Regional Analysis & Outreach Manager 320-441-6596 cameron.macht@state.mn.us Labor Market Information Office http://mn.gov/deed/data/