Pittsburgh Economic Trends

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Presentation transcript:

Pittsburgh Economic Trends March 2018 Christopher Briem Program in Urban and Regional Analysis University Center for Social and Urban Research University of Pittsburgh cbriem@pitt.edu

This presentation Overview of where the regional economy is today Demographics and the local economy Economic shifts within the region Emerging trends

G-20: September 2009

Pittsburgh MSA Unemployment Rate 1970-2017 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 Unemployment Rate (%) December 2017 = 4.9% 2 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Difference Between Pittsburgh MSA and US Unemployment Rates 1970 to 2017 +9 Pittsburgh MSA Unemployment Rate Above US Rate +7 +5 +3 +1 -1 -3 Percentage Point Difference Jan 2007 - May 2015 Pittsburgh MSA Unemployment Rate Below US Rate -5 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Annual Net Population Migration Pittsburgh MSA – 2000 to 2016 +10000 +8000 +6000 +4000 +2000 -2000 -4000 -6000 -8000 -10000 7,595 5,317 4,730 3,588 3,045 1,338 509 -1,159 -3,010 -2,695 -3,174 -3,629 -5,555 -6,638 -6,543 -8,996 Source: Census Bureau Estimates

Components of Population Change Pittsburgh MSA, 2015 -2016 Net International Migration +4,023 Net Domestic Migration -7,652 Natural Population Change -4,187 -12,000 -8,000 -4,000 4,000 8,000 12,000 Source: Census Bureau Estimates

Wage Trends Pittsburgh MSA compared to Metropolitan US 1969-2015 Average earnings per job - Inflation adjusted $2015 $65,000 US2015: $60,361 $60,000 $55,000 $50,000 $45,000 $40,000 Pittsburgh US 9 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Recent Trends by County - 2016Q3 to 2017Q3 Total Employment (Place of Work) 2016Q3 Allegheny Armstrong beaver Butler Fayette Washington Westmoreland Average Weekly Wage Allegheny Armstrong beaver Butler Fayette Washington 2017Q3 Change Change % 691,119 16,254 51,138 85,050 39,444 85,950 133,126 697,513 16,261 51,754 85,447 39,452 87,855 133,757 6,394 7 616 397 8 1,905 631 0.9% 0.0% 1.2% 0.5% 2.2% $1,099 $756 $815 $948 $736 $972 $827 $1,076 $745 $813 $943 $729 $985 $839 -23 -11 -2 -5 -7 +13 +12 -2.1% -1.5% -0.2% -0.5% -1.0% 1.3% 1 1.5%

County Employment Trends Since (Baseline 2001Q1) Place of work data 1.4 1.3 1.2 Butler +26% Washingtion+23% 1.1 Fayette +4% Westmoreland +1% Allegheny -1% Beaver -8% 1.0 0.9 Armstrong -15% 0.8 0.7 0.6 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Recent Pennsylvania Mining Employment Trends 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Oil and Gas Extraction Mining Support Coal Other Mining

Pittsburgh MSA Manufacturing Jobs 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Manufacturing Jobs as share of total Nonfarm Jobs Pittsburgh MSA, 1990-2017 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% December 2017 =7.0% 4% 2% 0% 20… 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2001 2007 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Is this cracker our future?

Or this cracker plant?

Pittsburgh MSA Employment, 2001-2017(Q3) Scientific Research and Development Services (NAICS 5417) 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000

Scientific Research and Development Services (NAICS 5417) and Iron and Steel Mills (NAICS 3311) 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000

Ethane Cracker – Beaver County Multi-year construction effort Severe strain on specialized construction workforce: welders/boilermakers/ steamfitters Many workers will have to come from outside Western Pennsylvania Steady state employment: ~400-600 jobs Secondary industry growth?

A tale of two Pittsburghs Mining/Shale itself 2 stories: Coal/Natgas Nuclear Biz suffering Manufacturing Eds/Meds: Note 4 new UPMC Hospital Projects Research activity expanding in private sector

Near term Stability returned to state natural gas Demographic pressures (natural population decline) similar to recent past Ethane Cracker construction pressures Eds and Meds continuing slow/steady growth Westinghouse? New private sector R&D (?)

A more positive future? University Center for Social

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