John McCartney CVEN 5454 Spring 2003

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Presentation transcript:

John McCartney CVEN 5454 Spring 2003 Relationship between Streamflow and Large-Scale Climate Indicators for: The San Juan River at Bluff Utah John McCartney CVEN 5454 Spring 2003

Topography of San Juan / Escalante Region

Annual Streamflow Cycle For data ranging from 1929 to 2001

Monthly Streamflow PDFs

Relationship between Streamflow and Large-scale Climate Indices Mutual Information = 0.107 r = 0.241 r = 0.372

Relationship between Streamflow and Large-scale Climate Indices

Streamflow Relative to Different Phases in the Climate Signal El Nino: winter ENSO > 0.25 Neutral: -0.25 < winter ENSO < 0.25 El Nina: winter Enso < -0.25 I chose this so that there were sufficient numbers of corresponding streamflows in each category

Streamflow Relative to Different Phases in the Climate Signal

Probabilistic Forecast of Streamflow Levels P(High ENSO) = 0.25 P(Neutral ENSO) = 0.35 P(Low ENSO) = 0.4 Upper flow threshold = 6500 cfs Lower flow threshold = 3000 cfs Conditional Matrix: P(High Flow) = 0.2320802 P(Neutral Flow) = 0.3224028 P(Low Flow) = 0.4455171

Simulated Average Spring Streamflow Scenario from Probabilistic Forecast

PDF Analysis of 100-yr flood ~5300 cfs

Extreme Distribution/LOCFIT Analysis of 100-yr Flood ~5300

AR(1) Parametric Time Series Analysis of Monthly Streamflow Statistics

k-Nearest-Neighbor Nonparametric Time Series Analysis of Monthly Streamflow

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