Shared, Electric, & Autonomous Vehicles – What it means for the grid E2 Engage delta county Garrett Fitzgerald| Sept 29th, 2017| Paonia, CO Transforming global energy use to create a clean, prosperous, and secure low-carbon future.

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Easter Parades on Fifth Avenue, New York, 13 years apart 1900: where’s the first car? 1913: where’s the last horse? ?

Policy and Economics are shifting the market Gas car bans announced EV models announced Norway: 2025 India:  2030 Britain: 2040 France: 2040 Netherlands: 2040 Germany: "I cannot name an exact year yet, but the approach is right” - Angela Merkle China: Work has begun on a timetable, according to China's vice minister of industry, Xin Guobin. Ford plans to ship 13 EV models in the next five years. Volkswagen has announced that it intends to launch 30 models of EVs over the next nine years. Volvo projects that all of its new models will include electric drive by 2019 BMW and Mercedes-Benz expect EVs to be 15–25% of their sales by 2025. Porsche announced that it now thinks electric models will be half of its production by 2030. Bloomberg New Energy Finance anticipates that by 2020, there will be 39 models of PHEVs and 44 models of EVs available in North America

U.S. eV market on the cusp of rapid growth Three OEMs have dominated the U.S. EV market in the past; In 2020 all major OEMS will offer a range of BEV options. You are here Next generation long-range, mid-class, EVs (Tesla 3, Chevy Bolt) address the mass market Cost parity of EV/ICE exists today for high mileage vehicles and is expected to be achieved for average mileage as soon as 2019-2022 Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance

Grid impacts are small today; Benefits (or challenges) will be big Soon System level load profile on the California grid: 2015 2025 Time of Day 2025 Uncontrolled: 11% increase in peak demand IN 2025 EVs could increase kWh sales by up to 13% but Uncontrolled charging could increase peak demand by 11%. However, controlled charging could increase system load factors by up to 6 percentage points (i.e. 0.68 t0 0.74 in CAISO). Low load factors cost utilites and rate payers money Controlled: 9% increase in system load factor OR Spend Money Save Money

Connected and Autonomous Vehicles will disrupt the market further

Autonomous Vehicles will enable widespread Transportation as a service Transportation-as-a-Service is a shift away from personally owned modes of transportation and towards mobility solutions that are consumed as a service. Combining transportation services from public and private transportation Single account payment Pay per trip or a monthly fee Mobility of goods and people Uber or, someone like them, will offer autonomous shared vehicle services. Widespread adoption of such services would reduce the amount of vehicles needed to accomplish the same amount of transportation by between 75% and 90%.

Automated conductive charging

Stationary wireless charging WiTricity’s DRIVE series of wireless EV charging pads come in 3.7 kilowatts, 7.7 kilowatts and 11 kilowatts -- typical sizes for consumer vehicles. The company also plans to scale to 22 kilowatts and higher to power bigger vehicles like electric buses

Wireless charging in motion

“I believe the auto industry will change more in the next five to 10 years than it has in the last 50, and this gives us the opportunity to make cars more capable, more sustainable and more exciting than ever before.” ” — General Motors CEO Mary Barra Timeline Today TI - energy and water efficient plant was 30% cheaper to build, so stayed in the U.S. saving 1,000 U.S. jobs Mining - 2004 project for Anglo American not only saved energy but improved health and recoveries and paid back in a few years. In 2015, we created Sunshine for Mines, bringing benign renewable energy to remote mines more cheaply and reliably than remote fuel logistics. 2020 202? 20?? AV pilots operating in: Tempe, AZ San Francisco, CA Pittsburgh, PA Boston, MA Autonomous Vehicles deployed without drivers in select cities AVs overtake personal vehicle ownership Shared, Autonomous, Electric Vehicles provide 90% of mobility

Thank you Garrett Fitzgerald, RMI gfitzgerald@rmi.org