Noel 2007 Chronicle Herald
Noel: Storm History 28 October – 4 November, 2007 Slow moving tropical storm moved through the Caribbean torrential rains from slowly moving storm devastated the Dominican Republic, Haiti, Jamaica, E. Cuba and the Bahamas 163 deaths, thousands of homes destroyed or damaged 80,000 evacuated in Cuba mostly a rain event in the Caribbean
Noel: Storm History Winds increased to Hurricane force only after passing the Bahamas Extra-tropical transition SE of Cape Hatteras Hurricane-force winds as it moved over Yarmouth (western tip of Nova Scotia), into the Bay of Fundy, southeastern New Brunswick then into the Gulf of St. Lawrence Coastal storm surge damage along the south coast of Nova Scotia Max rain amounts over southeastern Gaspe Peninsula (135 mm) and 60+ cm of snow in the Mountains of the Gaspe
WBV YHZ WCP
UNOFF CWCP 040046Z AUTO 10034KT 16/15 RMK PK WND 1039 0020Z PRESFR ALTM MISG SLP868 58100= UNOFF CWCP 040146Z AUTO 12032G39KT 16/16 RMK PK WND 1253 0121Z PRESFR ALTM MISG SLP845 56091= UNOFF CWCP 040246Z AUTO 13032G42KT 17/16 RMK PK WND 1345 0153Z PRESFR ALTM MISG SLP813 56091= UNOFF CWCP 040346Z AUTO 14035G43KT 16/14 RMK PK WND 1554 0313Z PRESFR ALTM MISG SLP778 58090= UNOFF CWCP 040446Z AUTO 14045G60KT 14/12 RMK PK WND 1460 0442Z PRESFR ALTM MISG SLP741 58104= UNOFF CWCP 040546Z AUTO 14044G54KT 12/11 RMK PK WND 1568 0503Z PRESFR ALTM MISG SLP685 58128= UNOFF CWCP 040646Z AUTO 21039G49KT 11/10 RMK PK WND 1453 0550Z PRESRR ALTM MISG SLP709 55069= UNOFF CWCP 040746Z AUTO 22039G52KT 10/09 RMK PK WND 2252 0745Z PRESRR ALTM MISG SLP776 53035= UNOFF CWCP 040846Z AUTO 25048G58KT 07/06 RMK PK WND 2460 0825Z PRESRR ALTM MISG SLP859 53174= UNOFF CWCP 040946Z AUTO 25044G55KT 08/05 RMK PK WND 2560 0859Z PRESRR ALTM MISG SLP907 51198= UNOFF CWCP 041046Z AUTO 26041G51KT 08/04 RMK PK WND 2553 1006Z PRESRR ALTM MISG SLP940 51164= UNOFF CWCP 041146Z AUTO 26036G45KT 09/04 RMK PK WND 2652 1052Z PRESRR ALTM MISG SLP970 51111= UNOFF CWCP 041246Z AUTO 25031G38KT 09/05 RMK PK WND 2643 1150Z PRESRR ALTM NOTE THAT T and Td DROPPED WITH THE GUSTY WINDS PRIOR TO THE WINDSHIFT AND PRESSURE JUMP !! IS THIS EVIDENCE OF EVAPORATIVELY COOLED AIR IN THE DRY SLOT BEING MIXED TO THE SURFACE?
METAR CYHZ 040200Z 13029G44KT 2SM -RA BR OVC005 15/15 A2941 RMK ST8 PRESFR RERA /R10/ SLP964 SKYXX= SPECI CYHZ 040227Z 14032G48KT 1 1/2SM -RA BR OVC002 RMK ST8 SKYXX= METAR CYHZ 040300Z 14033G50KT 2SM -RA BR OVC003 16/16 A2932 RMK ST8 SLP929 58095 SKYXX= METAR CYHZ 040400Z 14034G45KT 1 1/2SM -RA BR VV001 16/16 A2922 RMK FG8 PRESFR SLP895 SKYXX= METAR CYHZ 040500Z 14037G52KT 1 1/2SM -RA BR OVC002 17/17 A2910 RMK ST8 PRESFR SLP856 SKYXX= SPECI CYHZ 040520Z 14036G46KT 1 1/2SM RA BR OVC004 RMK ST8 PRESFP SKYXX= SPECI CYHZ 040539Z 15036G50KT 3SM -RA BR OVC004 RMK ST8 RERA SKYXX= METAR CYHZ 040600Z 15036G52KT 3SM -RA BR OVC004 17/17 A2902 RMK ST8 PRESFR RERA SLP827 58100 SKYXX= METAR CYHZ 040700Z CCA 16050G61KT 5SM -RA BR SCT008 OVC012 15/15 A2893 RMK SC4SC4 PRESFR SLP797 SKYXX= SPECI CYHZ 040734Z 16041G59KT 2SM -DZ BR OVC012 RMK SC8 SKYXX= METAR CYHZ 040800Z 17035G56KT 1 1/2SM -SHRA BR OVC010 12/12 A2884 RMK ST8 PRESFR SLP768 SKYXX= METAR CYHZ 040900Z 18036G51KT 2SM -RA BR OVC005 10/10 A2882 RMK ST8 SLP760 56067 SKYXX= METAR CYHZ 041000Z 20032G44KT 3SM -RA BR OVC004 10/10 A2888 RMK ST8 PRESRR SLP780 SKYXX= METAR CYHZ 041100Z 23035G55KT 6SM -RA BR OVC011 08/08 A2899 RMK ST8 PRESRR SLP819 SKYXX= SPECI CYHZ 041123Z 24029G49KT 12SM BKN012 BKN022 RMK ST5SC2 PRESRR SKY99= METAR CYHZ 041200Z 24025G39KT 15SM BKN015 OVC025 06/05 A2917 RMK SC5SC3 PRESRR SLP879 53117 SKYXX= METAR CYHZ 041300Z 25026G40KT 15SM BKN013 OVC025 06/05 A2928 RMK SC5SC3 PRESRR SLP915 SKYXX= METAR CYHZ 041400Z 24023G32KT 15SM OVC019 07/05 A2937 RMK SC8 PRESRR SLP947 SKYXX= METAR CYHZ 041500Z 23023G31KT 15SM OVC017 07/05 A2946 RMK SC8 PRESRR SLP977
UNOFF CXMI 040200Z AUTO 12039G46KT 15/14 RMK PK WND 1148 0129Z PRESFR ALTM MISG SLP940 58098= UNOFF CXMI 040300Z AUTO 13044G53KT 16/14 RMK PK WND 1353 0251Z PRESFR ALTM MISG SLP909 56098= UNOFF CXMI 040400Z AUTO 13043G50KT 16/15 RMK PK WND 1452 0347Z PRESFR ALTM MISG SLP879 56095= UNOFF CXMI 040500Z AUTO 13045G53KT 16/15 RMK PK WND 1353 0458Z PRESFR ALTM MISG SLP839 58101= UNOFF CXMI 040600Z AUTO 14043G52KT 17/15 RMK PK WND 1363 0517Z PRESFR ALTM MISG SLP819 56090= UNOFF CXMI 040700Z AUTO 16049G58KT 15/12 RMK PK WND 1665 0621Z PRESFR ALTM MISG SLP787 56092= UNOFF CXMI 040800Z AUTO 17061G73KT 12/10 RMK PK WND 1773 0757Z PRESFR ALTM MISG SLP753 58086= UNOFF CXMI 040900Z AUTO 18049G62KT 10/09 RMK PK WND 1769 0801Z ALTM MISG SLP753 56066= UNOFF CXMI 041000Z AUTO 21046G61KT 10/08 RMK PK WND 1965 0919Z PRESRR ALTM MISG SLP798 53011= UNOFF CXMI 041100Z AUTO 24043G63KT 08/04 RMK PK WND 2171 1022Z PRESRR ALTM MISG SLP858 53105= UNOFF CXMI 041200Z AUTO 24034G47KT 08/04 RMK PK WND 2352 1137Z PRESRR ALTM MISG SLP901 51148= UNOFF CXMI 041300Z AUTO 25026G39KT 07/04 RMK PK WND 2554 1216Z PRESRR ALTM MISG SLP935 51137= UNOFF CXMI 041400Z AUTO 25026G37KT 08/04 RMK PK WND 2439 1302Z PRESRR ALTM MISG SLP965 51107= UNOFF CXMI 041500Z AUTO 24022G32KT 09/04 RMK PK WND 2336 1431Z PRESRR ALTM MISG
UNOFF CWBV 040600Z AUTO 15045G52KT 16/15 RMK PK WND 1557 0535Z PRESFR ALTM MISG SLP866 58099= UNOFF CWBV 040640Z AUTO 15047G59KT 15/14 RMK PRESFR ALTM MISG SLP840 58103= UNOFF CWBV 040700Z AUTO 15047G61KT 15/14 RMK PK WND 1661 0654Z PRESFR ALTM MISG SLP836 58096= UNOFF CWBV 040740Z AUTO 18045G60KT 14/14 RMK ALTM MISG SLP840 56076= UNOFF CWBV 040800Z AUTO 17041G50KT 14/13 RMK PK WND 1860 0732Z ALTM MISG SLP831 56074= UNOFF CWBV 040840Z AUTO 18046G59KT 13/11 RMK PRESFR ALTM MISG SLP814 56066= UNOFF CWBV 040900Z AUTO 18054G68KT 12/10 RMK PK WND 1868 0856Z PRESFR ALTM MISG SLP810 56056= UNOFF CWBV 040940Z AUTO 19058G72KT 10/09 RMK ALTM MISG SLP798 58042= UNOFF CWBV 041000Z AUTO 19056G71KT 10/08 RMK PK WND 1974 0941Z ALTM MISG SLP796 58040= UNOFF CWBV 041040Z AUTO 20055G73KT 10/08 RMK ALTM MISG SLP816 55024= UNOFF CWBV 041100Z AUTO 21052G65KT 09/08 RMK PK WND 2074 1032Z PRESRR ALTM MISG SLP830 55001= UNOFF CWBV 041140Z AUTO 22056G66KT 09/06 RMK PRESRR ALTM MISG SLP860 53046= UNOFF CWBV 041200Z AUTO 23053G66KT 09/07 RMK PK WND 2270 1103Z PRESRR ALTM MISG SLP882 53072=
Gore Radar (XGO) near Halifax Set replay end time at 4 November 0400Z, loop length 6 hours, run the SERF, try some cross sections too Describe the nature of the precipitation Stratiform vs convective, banded, sloped? Plot the Velocity Azimuth Display (VAD) and loop What is the shape of the hodograph? What does this imply about the nature of the system (tropical vs extra- tropical)? How do the winds near the surface compare with observed gusts? Which side of Gore is the system passing? How do you know? Is there a steering flow? If so, how does it change with time?
Compositing Run the Winter Drill Down Display (WIDDS) Compare the CAPPI 1.0W (winter) with the CAPPI 1.5 (rain) Do you notice a difference in the method of compositing? Examine the 3 HR PA Sn (3 hour precip accumulation – snow) What method of compositing is being used for snow? Can you think why this method was chosen? What is causing the “ridges” in the PA product?
Marion Bridge (XMB) Cape Breton Island Set replay end time at 4 November 1100Z, loop length 2 hours, run the SERF Comment on the structure of reflectivity and the strength of the winds crossing Cape Breton
“Sting Jets” Term coined by British researcher Keith Browning Narrow zone of strong, gusty wind observed in the dry slots of rapid deepeners Crescent-shaped low-cloud bands sometimes observed in satellite imagery Possibly linked to slantwise convection mixing high velocity air to the surface Zone of strongest winds appears on satellite imagery just ahead of the tip of the comma head
From Browning and Field 2004
Conceptual model of a dry, high-momentum sting-jet outflow interacting with a colder and relatively moist boundary layer to produce strong wind gusts at the surface just behind a convergence line detectable as a line of boundary-layer cloud. (Browning and Field 2004)
* Example from “Great Storm of 1987” in England Meteosat infra-red images for (a) 0130 UTC and (b) 0230 UTC, 16 October 1987, using the E1 enhancement scheme to show the structure of the middle- and high-level cloud. Axes of three cloud-head bands, a, b and c (and four others), are denoted by red lines. The blue lines, labelled A, B and C, show the axes of boundary-layer convergence lines. The green lines show the surface frontal analysis. L is the surface low-pressure centre and the small white asterisk in (a) denotes the centre of the region of strongest surface winds. (Browning and Fields 2004) *
References Browning, K. A. (2004). The sting at the end of the tail: damaging winds associated with extratropical cyclones. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 130: 375-399. Clark, P. A. & Browning, K. A. (2005) The sting at the end of the tail: model diagnostics of fine scale 3D structure of the cloud head. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 131:2263-2292. Browning, K.A. and M. Field (2004). Evidence from Meteosat imagery of the interaction of sting jets with the boundary layer. Meteorol. Appl. 11, 277–289.