Secession and Self-Determination

Difference of focus: 1.      Identity (Ethnic, national, state) level 2.      Cultural nationalism (voluntary associations, religion, civil society) 3.      Political mobilization: parties 4.      Political action: Timing, strategy, tactics, violence question. 5.      Role of International Context becomes Important as a constraining or enabling factor. (Resources, Recognition, Military opposition or support)  

Secession and Self-Determination Multi-ethnic States Secession/separatism vs Self-determination Latter need not imply a desire to break free: Federalism - group representation at institutions of centre; power to federal unit Devolution of powers: legislature, symbols/culture, taxation, military Self-Determination aims not inevitable (60% of 285); Violent rebellion even less so (25% of self-determination cases)

Nationalism and Secession Role of ideology of nationalism Culture and politics should be congruent 'Foreign' rule illegitimate Separate state within an international system of states Trappings of state 'Copycat' contagion effect in 'waves'

Nations and Secession Primary ethnic groups rather than secondary Integration often prelude to agitation, as ethnie becomes nation Fewer attempts at secession prior to the modern period More 'backward' secessionists often suffer more splinter movements

Horowitz' Theory (1985) Domestic forces key in fomenting separatism (ethnic conflict, etc) International forces key in success Confluence of region and group advancedness/backwardness conditions secession Role of precipitants Conflicts with advanced seceders more clear-cut

The Role of Economic Motives Advanced look at contribution, Backward look at GNP inequity Instrumentalist view Older view: 'internal colonialism' (Nairn) favours poorer Recent approach: ethnic entrepreneurialism, favours better off (Hechter) Possibility: money counts, so advanced groups secede from poorer, while backward groups think they can do better

Ethno-Symbolist View Ethno-symbolist view - if money counts, why would a poor group secede? A shaky foundation Role of symbolic conflicts (Horowitz) Katanga secession splits into N and S movements Lunda/Bayeke vs Baluba

New Quantitative Research New Quantitative studies based on large datasets and statistical techniques (esp. MAR dataset) Coding is a weak spot Statistical problems due to chicken-egg problems and lack of good time-series Many missing variables Can state the obvious

Factors Causing Self-Determination Movements (Gurr & Quinn 2003) Major Factors: Group Organisation & Cohesion (membership of groups & mobilisation) Change in Communication Technology (landline growth) Minor Factors Demographic Stress Geographic Concentration Separatist Kin Political Discrimination (-)

Factors Causing Secession (Ayres & Saideman 2000) Group Geographic Concentration Separatist Kin Contagion from regional protest movements Tenuous link to Gurr study through importance of compact, mobilised base and separatist kin Points to role of primary ethnicity rather than secondary Horowitz' factors more central when it comes to violence

Irridentism Irridentism: unredeemed Irredentism involves a kind of separation, but there may be no desire for subunit to join with irridentist state Types: ethno-historical geo-political (Falkland Is.; Ceuta) historical-suzerainty (W. Sahara, W. Irian, Tibet)

Irridentism Irredentists less likely to press claims if they feel they'll wind up in a more hostile state Irridentism more likely if ethnic kin are engaged in separatism or dominate a nearby state (Saideman/Ayres 2000) Irridentism less likely for ethnic than civic nations (Saideman & Ayres 2008)

Ethnie versus Nation Secession raises theoretical question about pull of ethnicity versus 'artificial' nations (esp. Africa) Ethnic nationalism usually drives secession, but not always. Can be political, regional (Confederacy, Venezuela, Eritrea) Or partly both (Vojvodina)

Instrumentalist Perspective Instrumentalists look to institutional (Brubaker 1996) or interest-based (Hechter, Breuilly, Gellner) explanations for minority secession Power vacuum, weakening of established parties (i.e. ex-USSR) Monetary gain (i.e. Biafra, Scotland)

Ethno-Symbolist & Primordialist Perspectives Ethno-symbolists emphasise 'blueprint' of ethnic group myths, mental maps and memories Ethnic groups will be more emotionally resonant than state Secession likely if practical conditions allow, especially under impetus of nationalist ideology Primordialists: relatedness conditions trust, but unclear where boundaries will fall. More and more difficult as governing unit grows

Conclusion When nationalists turns to concrete politico-territorial goals, self-determination is the quest Self-Determination aims not inevitable ; Violent rebellion even less so Factors related to a group's degree of integration are central (geographical compactness, communication, mobilisation by associations)

Conclusion… Grievances play more of a role in violence than mere nationalist self-determination Evidence does not support instrumentalist explanations for nationalist self-determination, though poverty related to levels of violent conflict Some aspects support modernist account (i.e. integration as key), others favour ethno-symbolists (i.e. lost autonomy, separatist kin)