SA Economic Indicators Report updated: May 2016 Next update: June 2016 SA Economic Indicators

SA Economic Indicators What is the SA Economic Indicators report? Ti’s SA Economic Indicators report is a clear and easy-to-read view of the most currently available data for South Africa’s key economic indicators. Produced on a monthly basis by Ti Research, it draws on official information from various public and private institutions. The report is released in the first week of each new month, reporting on the available data up to and including the last day of the previous month. How to read this report Depending on the indicator itself, data is released by the various institutions on a daily, monthly or quarterly basis. The frequency and release date has been indicated at the foot of each slide, next to the data source. These dates are indicative however, since the institutions may publish the data with a delay. Data lag: Data availability varies according to the data source, at times with a lag of a couple of months. e.g. Retail Trade Sales for July 2015 were released with a two-month lag in September 2015 GDP figures for Q2/2015 were released two months after Q2 (i.e. in August 2015) Readers are reminded to bear this data lag in mind when looking for parallels between indicators. It might therefore be necessary to go back to previous months’ reports in order to correctly analyse indicators over the same reporting periods.

SA Economic Indicators Inflation | March 2011 to March 2016 BASKET WEIGHTING 2008 Food 15.7% Petrol 4.8% Electricity 1.9% BASKET WEIGHTING 2012 Food 15.4% Petrol 7.3% Electricity 4.2% SOURCE: StatsSA | Frequency: Monthly | Release date: 3rd Wednesday of the successive month

SA Economic Indicators Inflation | CPI by Category – March 2013 to March 2016 Electricity crisis and resulting increase in electricity prices Rand depreciation pushes up Food inflation SOURCE: StatsSA | Frequency: Monthly | Release date: 3rd Wednesday of the successive month

SA Economic Indicators Inflation | CPI by Food Type – at March 2016 8 categories experienced inflation above the upper target band. SOURCE: StatsSA | Frequency: Monthly | Release date: 3rd Wednesday of the successive month

SA Economic Indicators Inflation across the income groupings is above the upper target band. Lower-end consumers are exposed to higher inflation rates due to their higher exposure to commodities. Inflation | CPI by Expenditure Quintile* – at March 2016 NOTE: StatsSA divides the 5 quintiles* by household expenditure as follows: quintile 1 up to R21 399, quintile 2 R21 400 – R35 750, quintile 3 R35 751 – R61 624, quintile 4 R61 625 – R142 083, quintile 5 R142 084+ *A quintile refers to an equitable division of the population into 5 equal groups SOURCE: StatsSA | Frequency: Monthly | Release date: 3rd Wednesday of the successive month

SA Economic Indicators Inflation COMMENTARY CPI for March 2016: increased by 6.3% (February 2016: 7.0%), higher than 2015 average of 4.6% and higher than the upper band target of 6% Transport: decreased by -0,8% from February to March 2016, mainly due to the drop in petrol price Food and non-alcoholic beverages: increased by +1.6% from February to March 2016– the items with the highest monthly rates were fruit (7.9%) and breads & cereals (3.4%) Food inflation is expected to continue to increase This is due to an increase in local maize prices (and therefore also meat and dairy prices) as a result of the drought Other factors coming into play are the weak rand and unstable fuel price Core inflation*: Measured +5.4% year-on-year CPI for goods increased +6.9% year-on-year (7.9% in February) CPI for services increased by +5.7% year-on-year (6.1% in February) Inflation is expected to average 6.8% in 2016 and 7% in 2017, above the target band of 3-6% *Excludes volatile prices such as food, petrol, non-alcoholic beverages and energy

Dig a little Deeper You’ve read the overview – now improve your insights into the SA Trade with these detailed reports Malls to Markets Report Your essential guide to consumer goods retail in South Africa Independent Wholesale and Route-to-Market Channel Report Your tools for a winning strategy in a dynamic and growing channel  Forecourt Convenience Channel Formal retailers are on the move in forecourts – is your business ready to move with them?  Shopper Marketing at Retail Optimise your POS marketing spend in your key customers’ stores with this comparative visually detailed report. Would you like to know more? Contact Talisha on +27(31) 303 2803 or talishaw@tradeintelligence.co.za

Maryla Masojada | Head Analyst Tarryn Butler | Senior Retail Analyst