Operational Analysis in Dstl Steve Lea, Chief Scientist Policy and Capability Studies LASEORS - 9 Nov 04

Dstl Department Structure Policy & Capability Studies Miles Hunt Joint Systems Chris Gibson Systems Peter Starkey Naval Systems Neil Stansfield Land Systems John Hunt Air Systems Kevin Wagstaff Information Management Paul James Technology Mike Jenden Missiles & Countermeasures Alistair Feltham Energetics Simon Sanderson Sensors Alec McKie Electronics Ken Brigden Science Richard Scott Environmental Sciences John Richards Biomedical Sciences Mark Fulop Detection Alexis Hammer Physics Sue Holmes 15 November 201815 November 2018

Linking Research and Analysis Capability Managers changes in world circumstance, policy, needs ADVICE Integrated research, analysis and assessment achievable performance and cost technology breakthroughs, civil technology, ‘blue skies’ research new operational concepts, scenarios, doctrine Systems design Systems analysis performance and cost goals experience and lessons identified from in-service assessment 15 November 201815 November 2018

Policy & Capability Studies Department Policy formulation Peacetime management Capability planning Policy Operational training Operations Support to Operations Procurement Force planning Manpower and training Logistics WHY ARE WE HERE? “To support MOD in making the best policy, procurement and operational decisions” Equipment acquisition 15 November 201815 November 2018 Dstl/CP12170

Policy and Capability Studies Department The Policy and Capability Studies Department undertakes high level operational analysis to support MOD and wider government in its decision making processes. Main areas of activity are: support to policy formulation support to overall force planning support doctrine development and concepts of operation support to military capability decisions support to peacetime management of MOD support to other Government departments 15 November 201815 November 2018 Dstl/CP12170

Policy & Capability Studies Department Manager Chief Scientist Operations GL GL GL GL GL GL Co- ord Policy and Strategic Equipment Logistics Analysis Support to Planning Analysis Capability Analysis Experimentation Operations Analysis Analysis & Simulation Programme Co- Ord Policy Assessment Strategic Effects Costs Logistics Data and OA Operations AWC Resource Analysis Model Support Support Waddington Co- ord Force Structure Development Analysis Joint BOI Sustainability Future Analysis PJHQ AWC Operational Effects Manning Methods Waddington Analysis C4/ISTAR Deployment Operations MWC PPA: Main focus is support to MoD HQ’s Policy Area via their Force Development process, which seeks to: “Evaluate future warfare and technology trends in order to recommend the balance of future military capabilities and force structures that underpins defence policy.” ECA support the Joint Capabilities Board (JCB). To help shape the MOD’s forward equipment plan (EP) by informing balance of investment decisions between competing defence programmes. EP ~£6B pa and covers development and procurement of new equipment over the next 20 years. AES: MoD departments on : development and use of Synthetic Environments to support all phases of equipment acquisition, research and development training requirements and the design and use of virtual environments for collective training and mission rehearsal the experimentation programmes, and the use of live trials, virtual environments, and constructive simulations development and use of modelling and simulation tools for analysis to support MoD policy and acquisition decisions Concepts/Doctrine Training AWC Historical Analysis Sea/Air CBRN/Medical Northwood & Pol-Mil Gaming Analysis OAB, HQ Maritime Synthetic Campaign Environment AWC Development Land Warfare Information Campaign Land/Air High Wycombe Techniques Centre Support Analysis (JFAC) Graduate Group Experimentation Administration Group 15 November 201815 November 2018

Support to Operations (S2O) The Work The aim of the Support to Operations Group is to provide analysis and scientific advice on military trials, exercises and operations The Group has 75 staff Over 50 embedded in Headquarters, Warfare Centres Ready to deploy to theatre with UK forces Gulf War 1 , Bosnia and Kosovo, Afghanistan, Op Telic Support to Other Government Departments Fuel Crisis (Home Office), Foot and Mouth(DEFRA, Cabinet Office), Fire-fighters Strike (Cabinet Office) 15 November 201815 November 2018 Dstl/CP12170

Support to Operations (S2O) The Impact Examples of Recent Iraq Analysis Support (1) Combat Operations Support Strategic, Operational and Tactical Wargaming/Course of Action analysis Casualty profiling/medical analysis Logistics analysis - ammunition requirements Review of impact of weather on Combat Operations Post Combat Support Continuous Iraqi Attitude Survey (CIAS) Contacts Analysis Fuel Analysis Campaign Measures of Effectiveness 15 November 201815 November 2018 Dstl/CP12170 15

Strategic Analysis (SA) The Work SA provides support to (evidence-based) development and testing of Policy, Strategy and Plans Develops and undertakes techniques for adversary analysis e.g. regime leadership and non-state actor networks Undertakes Historical Analysis Analysis of regional security issues Helps understanding of how socio-technical systems might respond to intervention Focus on senior decision-makers’ needs (MoD & OGD) Expand the areas where OA can give useful advice Adapt the ways in which OA supports decisions The role of OA is to extract as much meaning as possible from the available objective evidence, so as to help clarify the issues for those who make the decisions. As with other forms of OA, Strategic Analysis does not remove autonomy from decision-makers; it simply provides advice to them. 15 November 201815 November 2018 Dstl/CP12170

Strategic Analysis - how it does it Regional risk assessment Info Ops planning & evaluation Strategy & Policy development & assessment Contingency planning support Evidence-based policy support Effects-based Planning Regime-level modelling Analysis of Socio-technical systems Influence analysis Strategic Assessment Method (SAM) roadmapping Scenario-based planning gaming Pol-Mil Social network analysis System dynamics Historical Content & context analysis Multi-disciplinary teams In order to analyse issues and options at the strategic level we need access to a broad range of disciplines, including some that are not commonly found in Dstl. Experience has shown that buying in this expertise is very inefficient for analysis purposes – we get some very elegant essays, but little that can support OA with out considerable extra work and interpretation. Instead we have recruited into the group people who are specialists in the required disciplines and are also able to operate in an analytical framework and work alongside operational analysts with more traditional backgrounds. Having these ‘embedded specialists’ gives us the internal capability to apply a much broader, multidisciplinary approach to problem structuring and analysis. It also gives us access to a much richer contact network and allows us to act as an intelligent customer for extramural research and support. Psychology Anthropology, Sociology Operational Analysis International Relations Political Science Management & Systems Science Physical Sciences Philosophy, Law, Ethics, War Studies, Intelligence analysis Economics Maths & Stats 15 November 201815 November 2018 Dstl/CP12170

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