The Fourth Annual Metropolitan Little Rock Economic Report Card Presented by The Arkansas Economic Development Institute and Gregory L. Hamilton Ph.D., Senior Research Economist

About AEDI Website: ualr.edu/aedi The Arkansas Economic Development Institute (AEDI) provides research and strategies to state, community and industrial leaders to promote economic growth and enhance the quality of life in Arkansas. The AEDI produces original economic research, maintains the Arkansas’ State Census Data Center and Geographic Information Systems Laboratory, and provides community economic development technical assistance and assessment statewide. Website: ualr.edu/aedi 2

Overview Comparison Data Variables How does the economic performance of the Little Rock-North Little Rock-Conway Metropolitan Statistical Area compare to other Metropolitan Statistical Areas. Utilized Data from various government and private sector sources ● American Community Survey ● Bureau of Labor Statistics Variables ● Bureau of Economic Analysis Conduct general economic comparisons of different economic and quality of life variables. 3 ● EMSI

Methodology Main Indicators Data Analysis Five Main Indicators to Explore Economic Performance ● Baseline averages established ● Performance Indicators ● Z Scores calculated for all indicators ● Structure Indicators ● Number of indicators above and below average calculated ● Quality of Life Indicators ● Indicators ranked based upon position above or below the average ● Entrepreneurship & Innovation Indicators 4 ● Knowledge Based Indicators

Ranking 4 3 2 1 Very Good Performance Good Performance Significantly Above Average Good Performance Above Average Poor Performance Below Average Very Poor Performance Significantly Below Average 5

Comparable MSAs Little Rock, AR ● Kansas City, MO ● Springfield, MO ● Greensboro, NC ● Nashville, TN ● Knoxville, TN ● Tulsa, OK Oklahoma City, OK ● ● Memphis, TN ● Little Rock, AR ● Columbia, SC ● Birmingham, AL ● Jackson, MS ● Austin, TX ● Baton Rouge, LA 6

Comparative Levels of Economic Activities

Performance Indicators Explanation ● Real GDP Value of Economic Output Adjusted for Price Changes ● Unemployment Rate Number of People Seeking Work (number of unemployed/labor force) ● Labor Force Participation Ratio of Labor Force (employed plus unemployed) to Population Employment Number of People within the MSAs Currently Employed ● Average Worker Productivity Growth in the Output per Employee ● Per Capita Personal Income Measures the Average Income Earned divided by Total Population ● 8

Growth Ave Productivity Performance Indicators Overall Little Rock MSA Results ● Poor Performing Real GDP ● Low Labor Force Participation Averages ● Very Poor Employment Performance ● Very Low Per Capita Personal Income (PCPI) ● Higher Level of Ave Productivity of Employees ● Very Low Unemployment Rate ● Ranks 6th Overall MSA Growth Real GDP (2010-2015) Growth Employment (2010-2016) Growth Ave Productivity (2010-2015) Unemployment Rate (2010-2016) LF- Participation (2010-2015) Growth PCPI Sum of Scores Performance Indicators Overall Austin, TX 4 24 1 Baton Rouge, LA 3 2 11 9 Birmingham, AL Columbia, SC 10 Greensboro-High Point, NC Jackson, MS Kansas City, MO 14 5 Knoxville, TN 12 8 LR-NLR-Conway, AR 13 6 Memphis, TN 7 Nashville, TN 22 Oklahoma City, OK Springfield, MO Tulsa, OK 20 9

Structure Indicators Explanation Employment Specialization by Industry Number of LQ’s>1 by Industry 2016 ● Occupational Specialization Number of LQ’s>1 by Occupation 2016 ● Shift Share Analysis Method Regional Job Growth is attributed to Industrial Mix and Unique Regional Factors 2009-2016 ● 10

Job Specialization by Industry

Structure Indicators Little Rock MSA Results ● Very Poor Employment Specialization ● Poor Shift Share due to Competitive Effect ● Good Occupational Specialization ● Ranks 8th Overall MSA Employment Specialization by Industry 2016 Occupational Specialization 2016 Shift Share 2009-2010 Sum of Scores Structure Indicators Overall Austin, TX 4 3 11 1 Baton Rouge, LA 2 7 6 Birmingham, AL 8 Columbia, SC 5 Greensboro-High Point, NC 12 Jackson, MS 10 Kansas City, MO Knoxville, TN 9 LR-NLR-Conway, AR Memphis, TN Nashville, TN Oklahoma City, OK Springfield, MO Tulsa, OK 13

Quality of Life Indicators Explanation ● Crime Rate Number of Violent and Property Crimes per 100,000 (2010- 2015) ● Health Care Access Number of People Employed in Health Care Professions per 1,000 People (2010-2016) ● Culture and Recreation Number of People Employed in Culture and Recreation Jobs per 1,000 People (2010-15) ● Accommodation and Food Services Number of People Employed in Hotel and Restaurant Jobs per 1,000 People (2010-15) ● Poverty Number of People Living in Poverty per 1,000 People (2010-15) ● Means of Transportation to Work Ratio of Those Who Carpool, Ride Public Transporation to Work to those that Drive Alone per 1,000 People (2010-14) ● Housing Affordability Ratio of Household Income and Household Value (2010-15) ● Air Quality Air Quality Measures (2010-2016) ● Real Estate Tax Regression of Real Estate Tax Against Quality of Life Indicators (2010-15) 14

Quality of Life Indicators Little Rock MSA Results ● Very High Crime Rates ● Poor Access to Accommodation and Food Services ● Very High Access to Health Care ● Very Low Poverty Rate ● Good Access to Culture and Recreational Activities ● Very High Housing Affordability ● Ranks 6th Overall MSA Crime Rates (2010-2015) Health Care Access per 1,000 Culture and Recreation per 1,000 Accommoda-tion and Food Services per 1,000 Poverty Rate Means of Transportation to Work Housing Affordability Air Quality Real Estate Tax Sum of Scores Quality of Life Indicators Overall Austin, TX 4 1 2 28 Baton Rouge, LA 3 12 14 Birmingham, AL 16 13 Columbia, SC 23 8 Greensboro-High Point, NC 19 Jackson, MS 21 10 Kansas City, MO 25 5 Knoxville, TN 20 11 LR-NLR-Conway, AR 6 Memphis, TN 26 Nashville, TN Oklahoma City, OK 27 Springfield, MO 24 7 Tulsa, OK 22 9 15

Entrepreneurship & Innovation Indicators Explanation ● Business Churn: Large and Small Businesses Change in the Ratio of Small Businesses (250<) to Large Business Establishments (500>) 2009-2014 Number of Establishments per 1,000 workers Annual Change in the Number of Establishments Per 1,000 workers 2009-2014 ● Ratio Non Farm-Proprietor’s Income to Earnings by Place of Work Average Share 2010-2015 Rate of Change in Share 2011-2015 ● Professional and Technical Services Index of Annual Change for Professional Technical Services Jobs 2010-2015 ● Innovation Index Ranking of Stats America Innovation Indicators: Human Capital, Business Dynamics, Productivity and Employment, Economic Well-Being, and Innovation 16

Entrepreneurship & Innovation Indicators Little Rock MSA Results ● Very Poor Bus Churn Ratio ● Very Poor NF-Prop EPOW Rate of Change ● Very Low Number of Professional and Tech Service Jobs ● Very High Changes in the Number of Establishments per 1,000 Workers ● Poor Performance on the Innovation Index ● Above Average Change in Pro to EPOW ● Ranked 12th Overall MSA Bus. Chum: Change in the Ratio Lg to Sm Establishments Bus. Chum: Change in the # of Establishments Per 1000 Workers NF-Proprietor’s Share of EPOW Rate of Change NF Prop Share of Income Professional & Technical Services Innovation Index Sum of Scores Entrepreneurship and Innovation Indicators Overall Austin, TX 3 4 1 20 Baton Rouge, LA 2 14 7 Birmingham, AL 11 13 Columbia, SC Greensboro-High Point, NC Jackson, MS 16 5 Kansas City, MO 17 Knoxville, TN 10 LR-NLR-Conway, AR 12 Memphis, TN Nashville, TN 15 6 Oklahoma City, OK Springfield, MO Tulsa, OK 18 17

Knowledge Based Indicators Explanation ● Dependency Ratio Ratio of Those below 16 and above 74 to Those 16 to 74 (2010-2016) ● Stem Jobs Ratio of Number of STEM Jobs as a Percent of Total Jobs (2010-2015) ● High School Graduates Percent of MSA Population Who Hold a High School Degree (2010-2015) ● Bachelor Degree or Higher Percent of MSA Population Who Hold a Bachelor or Advanced Degree (2010-2015) 18

% Bachelors Degree or Higher Knowledge Based Indicators Overall Little Rock MSA Results ● Above Average Dependency Ratio ● Below Average Number of College Graduates ● Very High Amount of STEM Jobs ● Ranks 6th Overall ● Very Large Number of High School Graduates MSA Dependency Ratio STEM Jobs % High School Graduates % Bachelors Degree or Higher Sum of Scores Knowledge Based Indicators Overall Austin, TX 4 3 15 1 Baton Rouge, LA 2 8 9 Birmingham, AL 7 11 Columbia, SC 14 Greensboro-High Point, NC 6 12 Jackson, MS Kansas City, MO 13 Knoxville, TN LR-NLR-Conway, AR Memphis, TN Nashville, TN Oklahoma City, OK Springfield, MO Tulsa, OK 19

2016 Score Card All Ranked Indicators MSA Structure Indicators Performance Indicators Quality of Life Indicators Entrepreneurship & Innovation Indicators Knowledge Based Indicators Overall Rank Austin, TX 1 Baton Rouge, LA 6 9 14 7 11 Birmingham, AL 8 13 Columbia, SC 5 2 Greensboro-High Point, NC 12 Jackson, MS 10 Kansas City, MO 4 3 Knoxville, TN LR-NLR-Conway, AR Memphis, TN Nashville, TN Oklahoma City, OK Springfield, MO Tulsa, OK 20

Final Score Little Rock MSA Results ● Little Rock MSA Ranked 9th out of 14 MSAs MSA Final Rank Ordered Austin, TX 1 Oklahoma City, OK 2 Kansas City, MO 3 Nashville, TN 4 Springfield, MO 5 Columbia, SC 6 Knoxville, TN 7 Tulsa, OK 8 LR-NLR-Conway, AR 9 Jackson, MS 10 Baton Rouge, LA 11 Memphis, TN-MS 12 Birmingham, AL 13 Greensboro-High Point, NC 14 21

Little Rock-NLR-Conway MSA Pros and Cons POSITIVES NEGATIVES ● Very High Education Levels and Access to STEM Jobs ● Very High Crime Rate ● Low Number of Professional and Tech Service Jobs ● Very High Growth Business Establishments per 1,000 Employee's ● Above Average Occupational Specialization ● Very Low Employment Specialization ●Very Low Unemployment Rates ● Very Low Ratio of Small & Large Business Establishments ● Housing Affordability ● Very Low PCPI growth ● Above Average Health Care Access ● Very Low Employment Growth Rates ● Below Average Poverty Rates 22

Report Card Results by Year 2013-2016 MSA 2013 Report Card 2014 Report Card 2015 Report Card 2016 Report Card Austin, TX 1 Above Average Baton Rouge, LA 6 5 Below Average 11 Birmingham, AL 13 Columbia, SC 9 Greensboro-High Point, NC 14 Jackson, MS 8 12 10 Kansas City, MO 4 3 Knoxville, TN Average 7 LR-NLR-Conway, AR Memphis, TN Nashville, TN Oklahoma City, OK 2 Springfield, MO Tulsa, OK 23

THANK YOU 2801 South University Avenue Little Rock, AR 72204-1099 Phone: (501) 569-8519 ● FAX (501) 569-8538 ualr.edu/aedi