Future Thinking and Deregulation in Education Hiroshima, November 6, 2006 Marc Vermeulen TiasNimbas IVA Policy Research and Consultancy

Presentation Thinking about the future and uncertainty Deregulation and consequences A Stakeholder perspective

Dealing with unpredictables Uncertainty React Influence

Dealing with unpredictables anticipate Uncertainty React Influence Quality of analysis Defines strategic capacity Role modeling

Which trends ?

Global + Local= GloCal Phenomena System and tradition Trend

Assignment I Please write down 10 important developments influencing Japanese schools Rank them in the grid predict vs dynamics Conclusions?

Dynamics versus prediction Stable Highly dynamic Unpredictable Gender specific educational choices Climate change Youth cultures and consumer behavior Predictable Changes in educational system Urbanization Aging

OECD scenarios 2001 STATUS QUO Bureaucratic School Systems Teacher exodus 'meltdown' RE-SCHOOLING Schools as Core Social Centres Schools as Focused Learning Organisations DE-SCHOOLING Learning Networks and the Network Society Extending the Market Model

Thinking scenarios Time Present scenario a scenario b scenario c scenario d Analyses: Path dependency early-warning

if man defines a situation as real, it will be real in its consequences (thomastheorema)

Stakeholders analyses   influence interest - importance perception evaluation stakeholder high/low shared friends?

Try to commit them actively Friends or enemies High influence Low influence High interest Allies: Try to commit them actively Audience :applause pu Low interest Possible enemies Try not to upset them No energy