Prediction of cervical cancer incidence in England, UK, up to 2040, under four scenarios: a modelling study Alejandra Castanon, MD, Rebecca Landy, PhD,

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Presentation transcript:

Prediction of cervical cancer incidence in England, UK, up to 2040, under four scenarios: a modelling study Alejandra Castanon, MD, Rebecca Landy, PhD, Francesca Pesola, PhD, Peter Windridge, PhD, Prof Peter Sasieni, PhD The Lancet Public Health Volume 3, Issue 1, Pages e34-e43 (January 2018) DOI: 10.1016/S2468-2667(17)30222-0 Copyright © 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license Terms and Conditions

Figure 1 Rates of and yearly averages of cervical cancer under the status quo scenario (A) Cervical cancer rates per 100 000 women per age and year of diagnosis. (B) Yearly average numbers of cervical cancer cases per age and year of diagnosis. (C) Cervical cancer rates per 100 000 women per birth cohort and age of diagnosis. (D) Yearly average numbers of cervical cancer cases per birth cohort and age of diagnosis. The Lancet Public Health 2018 3, e34-e43DOI: (10.1016/S2468-2667(17)30222-0) Copyright © 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license Terms and Conditions

Figure 2 Effect of the introduction of HPV primary testing on age-standardised cervical cancer rates in women aged 25–64 years HPV=human papillomavirus. The Lancet Public Health 2018 3, e34-e43DOI: (10.1016/S2468-2667(17)30222-0) Copyright © 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license Terms and Conditions

Figure 3 Effect of vaccine type, vaccine uptake, and screening coverage on cervical cancer rates Vaccination was introduced in England, UK, to girls aged 12–13 years in 2008–09 with a catch-up cohort aged 17–18 years (uptake in this cohort was poor). Not all women aged 30–34 years will have been vaccinated with the nine-valent vaccine by 2040, 24% will have received the four-valent vaccine instead. The Lancet Public Health 2018 3, e34-e43DOI: (10.1016/S2468-2667(17)30222-0) Copyright © 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license Terms and Conditions