Water Sector Overview Moving towards a Water Sensitive Society Valerie Naidoo Water Research Commission NCPC / DTi Industrial Efficiency Conference ICC Durban 2015 22nd July 2015

Drivers Population Growth Coverage (water, energy, food) Industrialization /Development Consumption of resources Improved wealth Deterioration of environment Urbanization Densification To centralize or decentralize? New solutions Limitation on Natural resources Water (quantity and quality) Food Energy Changes to natural environment Droughts Floods Shortages Scarcity Temperature changes

Urban Population (% and agglomerations by size class) – 2011 Highest Urbanizing countries in the world (7/10 are in Africa) All the world stats point to Africa being in a rapid urbanization phase. Only a few countries in Africa can be considered to between 75 and 100% urbanized, A few are moving to the next stage of > 50% urbanized. But majority of African countries are considered to be emerging cities or as some have referred to them as cities : that are growing up. United Nations (Dept of Economic and Social Affairs) : World Urbanization Prospects, the 2011 Revision

Climate Change is being taken seriously in SA unlike ……… POLICY IMPLEMENTATION Predictions : Drier western half of the country and wetter more variable weather in the eastern half 15-Nov-18 File name

Water In SA Current context 15-Nov-18

Legislative Environment Legislation Principles Water Act Common resource to all No ownership but right to use Unity of water cycle and interdependence of its elements Water Services Act Mandated to Local Government Achieve equitable access for all Achieve sustainable use (ie some for all, forever) Achieve efficient and effective use (i.e. optimum social and economic benefits) Priority to basic human needs and ecological sustainability (ecological reserve) Water is viewed first as a common good Water is also viewed as an economic good Broad spectrum of actors in water management: DWS ; Waterboards; Local government (WSI), CMA’s

Mean Annual Precipitation (460 – 495 mm) Physical Environment Mean Annual Precipitation (460 – 495 mm) Rainfall distribution – decreases from east to west. Concentration along the coastal areas and escarpment i.e. suggest orographic/relief/mountain influence. 60% of the land-surface area is semi-arid to arid with a highly variable rainfall.

RAINFALL DISTRIBUTION

SEASONAL DISTRIBUTION RAINFALL

EVAPORATION RATES mm/annum

Management Environment: Dams and Interbasin Transfers DWA, 2004 South Africa has 794 large dams which can store up to 32 billion m3/annum

Energy Intensive System Models

Planning Environment :Water Quantity WR2005 = 49 000 Mm3 (surface water) 98% allocated (77%) Groundwater = 10 000 Mm3 (or 7 500 Mm3 under drought conditions) (9%) Indirect Reuse = 30 to 60% return flows (14%) Slight decline in the assessment figures. Why? Daily observations have improved, number of records increased, computing ability enhanced, etc. WR2012

Water Use in SA DWS Water Sector Overview Report, 2013

Planning Environment : Supply vs Demand

So what do we know! Based on rising population, economic growth projections, scarcity of resources as well as current use and efficiency levels, South Africa will demand 17 percent more water than exists by 2030. The net deficit between supply and demand could grow to between 2.7—3.8 billion m3 Summary of water quality issues by geographical area in South Africa (Source: CSIR 2010) 2018/11/15

Global Risk Assessment (WEF)…..900 leaders 10th global risk assesment - 900 leaders – trends business is just not business – you are connected

Water Supply Settlements The Mix (Supply Side) Water Supply Settlements Surface Groundwater Stormwater Rainwater Wastewater Ecological Reserve Minewater Transfers Seawater Aquifer recharge greywater 15-Nov-18 File name

Cost vs Value of Water

Urban water management transition states (Brown et al Urban water management transition states (Brown et al., 2009) (Developed World) Socio-political

Socio-political and economic reality Framework for Water Sensitive Settlements in RSA, “Two histories, one future” (Developing World) Socio-political and economic reality Armitage et al, 2014 – adapted from Brown

City/village/town/settlement Research Models Trans-disciplinary approach Level of Certainty Scenarios Technologies Demonstrations Impact analysis The water balance City/village/town/settlement Surface water Rainwater Stormwater Groundwater Brackish water Sea water Wastewater Greywater Mine water Reduced island heat effect Ecological infrastructure Storage Fit for purpose streamflows Built infrastructure Source and yield Technologies Setting correct water quality objectives

Sustainable Urban Drainage in Cities

Sustainable Urban Drainage in Cities

Sustainable Urban Drainage in Cities

Sustainable Urban Drainage in Cities

9 South African Cities End use modelling Data - Property and HH data ; Local area specific climate date Looked at RWH, GWH, WED, on site leakage reduction ; Water demand variations % water savings of 50% - with combinations 15-Nov-18 File name

integration (from WRC Project ; K5/2071) While we are moving to this optimum centre of a water sensitive settlement/city we will also need to through research and adaptation of current knowledge prepare ourselves to deal with new water resources, the blue-green infrastructure and maximizing value of all resources by continuously adapting to change and building resilient institutions and communities in the process. This requires a trans-disciplinary approach. I am now going to share with you some example of research and research products that are aimed at filling these gaps. 15-Nov-18 File name (from WRC Project ; K5/2071)

A Water Wise Society – “enlightened” The Water Sector 2025 – Institutional Landscape – WRC TT514-11

With any crisis comes opportunities for innovation and change.

Thank You