106 105 104 *Swetnam and Betancourt, Science, 1993 FIRE! NO BIG SURPRISE! Clear Link: Regional Fire Years and ENSO* Climate & Policy Linkages Predictability at Local Scales Concerned Stakeholders New Direction for CLIMAS Key points about fire: 1. Wet (usually El Nino) years increase fine fuels 2. When followed by dry years (usually La Nina), then fire hazard increases dramatically and predictably 3. Mention the overall trend in the graph -- due chiefly to the “Smokey the Bear effect,” I.e., a century of fire suppression 4. Mention that the Feb. 2000 workshop occurred IN ADVANCE OF the 2000 fire season -- INTENTIONALLY and with GREAT WISDOM on the part of CLIMAS

FIRE! NO BIG SURPRISE! Clear link: regional fire & ENSO Local scale predictability Concerned decision makers FIRE! NO BIG SURPRISE! Clear Link: Regional Fire Years and ENSO* Climate & Policy Linkages Predictability at Local Scales Concerned Stakeholders New Direction for CLIMAS Key points about fire: 1. Wet (usually El Nino) years increase fine fuels 2. When followed by dry years (usually La Nina), then fire hazard increases dramatically and predictably 3. Mention the overall trend in the graph -- due chiefly to the “Smokey the Bear effect,” I.e., a century of fire suppression 4. Mention that the Feb. 2000 workshop occurred IN ADVANCE OF the 2000 fire season -- INTENTIONALLY and with GREAT WISDOM on the part of CLIMAS