Friends and Partners of Aviation Weather Summer 2016 Meeting

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Presentation transcript:

Friends and Partners of Aviation Weather Summer 2016 Meeting Date: August 3, 2016 Surface Winds Presented to: FPAW Presented by: Kevin Johnston

Surface Wind Challenges? During Center Weather Service Unit (CWSU) Site Reviews, NWS and FAA team members received feedback from Traffic Flow Managers that wind forecasts in the NWS Terminal Aerodrome Forecasts (TAF) do not assist/support TFM decisions. Do we have a problem? If so, how do we resolve it? How often are TMI implemented for wind? Where do we go from here?

Ground Delay Programs Jan 2015-May 2016

Wind: Second Most Percentage of Flights Affected

Wind: Second Most Percentage of Flights Affected YYYY-DD # Flights Affected: WEATHER/WIND # Flights Affected: All Others % Wind 2015-01 8296 15036 36% 2015-02 9231 18759 33% 2015-03 5586 24907 18% 2015-04 7223 16383 31% 2015-05 1273 27835 4% 2015-06 4064 34966 10% 2015-07 1171 32473 3% 2015-08 2206 28072 7% 2015-09 3194 15482 17% 2015-10 6898 15801 30% 2015-11 6884 17423 28% 2015-12 5735 27174 2016-01 5201 16463 24% 2016-02 9278 17707 34% 2016-03 14398 14406 50% 2016-04 6356 16079 2016-05* 858 11388 Total 97852 350354 22%

Wind: Second Most Percentage of GDPs Issued

Wind: Where Are the GDPs? Airport # of Flights Affected # of GDPs LGA 23530 60 EWR 15204 44 JFK 14559 58 SFO 10842 24 ORD 9453 15 CYYZ 5551 21 LAS 3192 11 MSP 2714 DEN 2334 8 BOS 1868 7 PHL 1345 5 TEB 1225 LAX 990 2 IAH 951 SEA 878 DFW 865 1 MEM 597 4 CYUL 525 3 DCA 485 IAD 335 CLT 309 DTW 100

Possible Next Steps Engage industry… Work with industry and determine if finer resolution wind forecast, tied to traffic flow management decisions, would be helpful or is this a government only concern? Why aren’t more GDPs for wind implemented? Are we too reactive when it comes to wind? If so, how can we improve? Is wind forecasting only important at the surface? If not, what levels above the surface are needed? Further discussion and exploration likely needed.