regional climate and climate change in past decades: CoastDat Reconstruction of regional climate and climate change in past decades: CoastDat Hans von Storch, Frauke Feser, Ralf Weisse and Matthias Zahn Institute for Coastal Research, GKSS Research Center, Germany and KlimaCampus, U of Hamburg, Germany 15 min’s Abstract Reference Number: 693550 Abstract Title: Reconstruction of regional climate and climate change in past decades Paper Number: A31H-01   Presentation Type: Oral Presentation Presentation Date and Time: December 16, 2009; 8:00 AM to 8:15 AM Presentation Length: 15 minutes Location: 3002 (Moscone West)

What is coastDat? A set of model data of recent, ongoing and possible future coastal climate (hindcasts 1948-2008, reconstructions and scenarios for the future, e.g., 2070-2100) Based on experiences and activities in a number of national and international projects (e.g. WASA, HIPOCAS, STOWASUS, PRUDENCE) Presently contains atmospheric and oceanographic parameter (e.g. near-surface winds, pressure, temperature and humidity; upper air meteorological data such as geopotential height, cloud cover, temperature and humidity; oceanographic data such as sea states (wave heights, periods, directions, spectra) or water levels (tides and surges) and depth averaged currents, ocean temperatures) Covers different geographical regions (presently mainly the North Sea and parts of the Northeast Atlantic; other areas such as the Baltic Sea, subarctic regions or E-Asia are to be included) http://www.coastdat.de, contact: Ralf Weisse (ralf.weisse@gkss.de)

Overview Construction of CoastDat Validation of CoastDat Applications

Downscaling cascade. run with NCEP, 1948-2008

global model variance Spatial scales Insufficiently resolved Well resolved Spatial scales

regional model variance Spatial scales Added value Insufficiently resolved Well resolved Spatial scales Added value

Concept of Dynamical Downscaling RCM Physiographic detail 3-d vector of state Known large scale state projection of full state on large-scale scale Large-scale (spectral) nudging

Extreme wind speeds over sea – simulated and recorded These plots are the quantile-quantile diagrams (REMO & NCEP Vs Observations) for 10-m wind speed at 2 buoys station. The first one is an Atlantic offshore buoy (ZBGSO, located at 48.7N,12.40W), already assimilated by NCEP. The second one shows results from a Mediterranean buoy (ZATOS, located at 39.96N, 24.72E, Aegean Sea), whose data have NOT been previously assimilated by NCEP.

Hourly data, 50 km grid, 1948-2008

Interannual Variability Water Levels (Weisse and Plüß 2006) Annual mean winter high waters Cuxhaven red – reconstruction, black – observations

Applications N European Storm Climate and related issues (incl. industrial applications) Polar Lows in the North Atlantic Polar Lows in North Pacific Typhoons in E Asia Pathways of gasoline lead pollution

Changing significant wave height, 1958-2002 waves 50,75, 90, 95, 99 and 99.9%iles of significant wave heights (m) and linear trends wind

Some applications of coastDat - Ship design Problem: . RoRo liners operating on fixed routes . Operation time critical Idea: . Optimization of velocity profile taking environmental conditions into account (e.g. water depth, wave height, wave angle) Example: . 200 m RoRo liner Zeebrügge-Immingham . Compared to conventional approach delayed in 7% of time; only in 0.5% more than 30 min . Reduced operation costs (200 TEUR/year due to reduced fuel consumption) Source: Flensburger Schiffbau Gesellschaft

Climate simulations with CLM ( ~50km) for Polar Lows 1948-2007 Zahn, M., and H. von Storch, 2008: A longterm climatology of North Atlantic Polar Lows. Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L22702, doi:10.1029/2008GL035769 For scenarios, see poster: Future projections of North Atlantic polar low frequency

North Atlantic Polar Lows

Flow and deposition of substances Lead deposition in Europe Many anthropogenic substances released into the environment are transported over long distances and are deposited all over Europe and the rest of the world. Long term and spatially representative measurements unavailable. Alternative: use of circulation and precipitation from long-term weather reconstruction to model fate of substances. Flow and deposition of substances die Emissionsdatenbasen stammen von Pacyna und wurden im wesentlichen aus Schätzungen von Experten aus den einzelnen europäischen Ländern zusammengestellt. Diese Emissionen gibt es für 70, 75, 80, 85, 90, 93 Die europäischen BaP Emissionen werden deutlich durch die stationäre Verbrennung von fossilen Brennstoffen dominiert. Mit ca. 45% der Gesamtemissionen 1990 waren industrielle Produktionsprozesse wie Kokerei, Stahl und Aluminium Produktion die bedeutendste Quellkategorie, gefolgt von der nicht industriellen Verbrennung von Kohle. Emissionen aus mobilen Dieselmotoren trugen insgesamt mit knapp 6% bei. von Storch, H., M. Costa-Cabral, C. Hagner, F. Feser, J. Pacyna, E. Pacyna, and S.Kolb, 2003: Four decades of gasoline lead emissions and control policies in Europe: A retrospective assessment, The Science of the Total Environment (STOTEN) 311, 151-176

Lead in Europe, 1975 Emissions Depositions

model estimate

Weisse, R. , H. von Storch, U. Callies, A. Chrastansky, F. Feser, I Weisse, R., H. von Storch, U. Callies, A. Chrastansky, F. Feser, I. Grabemann, H. Günther, A. Plüss, T. Stoye, J. Tellkamp, J. Winterfeldt and K. Woth, 2009: Regional meteo-marine reanalyses and climate change projections: Results for Northern Europe and potentials for coastal and offshore applications. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. 90: 849-860 (open access)