Momentum and International Markets

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Presentation transcript:

Momentum and International Markets John Lewis, CMT Sr. Portfolio Manager

NASDAQ Dorsey Wright Asset Manager Research Platform Index Platform Over $1 Billion in assets tracking Dorsey Wright strategies via SMA/UMA strategies that utilize NDW’s relative strength methodolgy. Research Platform Nasdaq Dorsey Wright Technical analysis database used by financial professionals and portfolio manager worldwide. (Contains market insights, actionable ideas, research, and tools designed for asset allocation, stock selection, market insights, and portfolio management). Index Platform Index/model provider for over 30 ETFs and Mutual Funds available through top fund providers, including First Trust, Invesco, and State Street. DORSEY WRIGHT

DORSEY WRIGHT

Asset Class Returns Source: Dorsey Wright & FactSet DORSEY WRIGHT

International Cycles Source: Dorsey Wright, FactSet DORSEY WRIGHT

International Allocation Benefits Source: Fidelity Investments DORSEY WRIGHT

International Allocation Benefits Source: Nationwide Financial DORSEY WRIGHT

Premier Investment Factors The relative strength strategy is NOT a guarantee. There may be times where all investments and strategies are unfavorable and depreciate in value. Relative Strength is a measure of price momentum based on historical price activity. Relative Strength is not predictive and there is no assurance that forecasts based on relative strength can be relied upon to be successful or outperform any index, asset, or strategy. Past performance is no guarantee of future returns. Potential for profits is accompanied by possibility of loss. Source: Ken French Data Library DORSEY WRIGHT

Momentum Environments What market environments are favorable for relative strength? Stable leadership Large dispersion in returns between the leaders and laggards What market environments are unfavorable for relative strength? Major changes in leadership Choppy, trendless markets The relative strength strategy is NOT a guarantee. There may be times where all investments and strategies are unfavorable and depreciate in value. Past performance is no guarantee of future returns. Potential for profits is accompanied by possibility of loss. DORSEY WRIGHT

U.S. Dollar Source: FactSet DORSEY WRIGHT

Dollar’s Impact Source: Dorsey Wright DORSEY WRIGHT

U.S. vs. The World Source: FactSet DORSEY WRIGHT

Emerging vs. Developed Source: FactSet DORSEY WRIGHT

Latin America vs. International Source: FactSet DORSEY WRIGHT

Go Active In International Source: Lazard Asset Management DORSEY WRIGHT

SRS International- Investment Process US ADR Market Screen For Liquidity Rank Macro Sectors Rank Individual Securities US ADR Universe 3,000+ US listed level 1 & 2 ADRs are screened for liquidity TOP DOWN 10 Macro sectors are ranked and weighted based on relative strength BOTTOM UP The ADR universe is ranked by a proprietary relative strength scoring to select the strongest companies Disciplined Sell Stops for each position are implemented based on relative strength scoring

Benefits of ADRs Exposure to over 3,000+ international companies in U.S. Dollar U.S. securities, issued by a U.S. bank, that represent a non-U.S. company’s equity Access to every major international market Trade on U.S. exchanges (NYSE, NASDAQ) and the over-the-counter (OTC) market Dividends paid in U.S. Dollars Can be created and redeemed like ETF’s

Buy Methodology-Macro Sector Weights Technology- Max Weight Max Weight Utilities- Zero Weight Zero Weight The relative strength strategy is NOT a guarantee. There may be times where all investments and strategies are unfavorable and depreciate in value. Past performance is no guarantee of future returns. Potential for profits is accompanied by possibility of loss. Source:: Dorsey Wright

Buy/ Sell Methodology- Core Zones Hold Sell The relative strength strategy is NOT a guarantee. There may be times where all investments and strategies are unfavorable and depreciate in value. Past performance is no guarantee of future returns. Potential for profits is accompanied by possibility of loss. Source: Dorsey Wright

Active Management Active share measures the percentage of fund holdings that are different than the benchmark. The higher the percentage the more active a manager is in their stock selection. SRS International Active Share: 98%1 1 As of June 30, 2018, calculated by eVestment verse the Nasdaq Global ex US index.

Trade Distribution Total Trades Since Inception: 355 Period Count % of Trades Real Performance 6 MO 73 20.6% -17.25% 12MO 112 31.5% -13.13% 18MO 66 18.6% 8.53% 24MO 41 11.5% 26.56% 30MO 32 9.0% 40.55% 36MO 9 2.5% 64.26% 42MO 11 3.1% 125.72% 48MO 3 0.8% 241.37% >48MO 8 2.3% 188.98% All portfolio and index returns are as of 6/30/2018. The hypothetic chart shown above is supplementary to the GIPS disclosure document. For full composite returns and statistics, please consult the disclosure. This example is presented for illustrative purposes only, and does not represent a past or present recommendation. Past performance is not indicative of future results.  Potential for profits is accompanied by possibility of loss. Source: Dorsey Wright

Historical Allocation- EM vs. DM Below are the historical regional allocations of the strategy since inception. The strategy continually adapts to changing markets, reallocating from weak companies to areas of strength regardless of the country or region or the benchmarks allocation. Portfolio holdings as of 6/30/2018

Historical Allocation- Region Below are the historical regional allocations of the strategy since inception. The strategy continually adapts to changing markets, reallocating from weak companies to areas of strength regardless of the country or region or the benchmarks allocation. Portfolio holdings as of 6/30/2018

Strategy Drawdown Depth Length Recovery Peak Valley SRS International   Depth Length Recovery Peak Valley SRS International -58.27 16 55 October-07 February-09 Nasdaq Global ex- US -57.48 56 All portfolio and index returns are as of 6/30/2018. The hypothetic chart shown above is supplementary to the GIPS disclosure document. For full composite returns and statistics, please consult the disclosure. This example is presented for illustrative purposes only, and does not represent a past or present recommendation. Past performance is not indicative of future results.  Potential for profits is accompanied by possibility of loss.

Strategy Statistics Strategy Statistics* 3 Years 9.95 -- 1.15 1.00 SRS International (Gross) MSCI EAFE ND Alpha 9.95 -- Beta 1.15 1.00 R- Squared 0.53 Sharpe Ratio 0.96 0.49 Information Ratio 0.95 Up Capture 155.09 100.00 Down Capture 29.53 Standard Deviation 16.29 10.33 Strategy Statistics* 5 Years SRS International (Gross) MSCI EAFE ND Alpha 13.08 -- Beta 1.30 1.00 R- Squared 0.59 Sharpe Ratio 1.19 Information Ratio 1.27 Up Capture 202.84 Down Capture 48.84 Standard Deviation 17.77 10.43 *Risk Index: MSCI EAFE ND Risk free index: Citi 3 Mo. T-Bill *Risk Index: MSCI EAFE ND Risk free index: Citi 3 Mo. T-Bill All portfolio and index returns are as of 6/30/2018. Statistics are based on the Gross returns of the strategy verse the risk free and risk index. All calculations are done using eVestment’s portfolio analytics tool. Please see evestment.com for a full list of formulas and parameters used to calculate the statistics.

SRS International- Annual Returns eVestment and its affiliated entities (collectively, "eVestment") collect information directly from investment management firms and other sources believed to be reliable; however, eVestment does not guarantee or warrant the accuracy, timeliness, or completeness of the information provided and is not responsible for any errors or omissions. Performance results may be provided with additional disclosures available on eVestment’s systems and other important considerations such as fees that may be applicable. Not for general distribution. * All categories not necessarily included; Totals may not equal 100%. Copyright 2013‐2015 eVestment Alliance, LLC. All Rights Reserved.

Strategy Returns- Rolling 6 Mo. Excess Returns All portfolio and index returns are as of 6/30/2018. The hypothetic chart shown above is supplementary to the GIPS disclosure document. For full composite returns and statistics, please consult the disclosure. This example is presented for illustrative purposes only, and does not represent a past or present recommendation. Past performance is not indicative of future results.  Potential for profits is accompanied by possibility of loss.

Disclosures Dorsey, Wright & Associates, LLC, a Nasdaq Company, is a registered investment advisory firm. Registration does not imply any level of skill or training. Some performance information presented is the result of back-tested performance. Back-tested performance is hypothetical (it does not reflect trading in actual accounts) and is provided for informational purposes to illustrate the effects of the strategy during a specific period. Back-tested performance results have certain limitations. Back-testing performance differs from actual performance because it is achieved through retroactive application of a model investment methodology designed with the benefit of hindsight. Performance results (both backtested and model performance) do not represent the impact of material economic and market factors might have on an investment advisor’s decision making process if the advisor were actually managing client money. Dorsey, Wright & Associates, LLC (collectively, with is parent company and affiliates “DWA”) believes the data used in the testing to be from credible, reliable sources, however; DWA makes no representation or warranties of any kind as to the accuracy of such data. The relative strength strategy is NOT a guarantee. There may be times where all investments and strategies are unfavorable and depreciate in value. Relative Strength is a measure of price momentum based on historical price activity. Relative Strength is not predictive and there is no assurance that forecasts based on relative strength can be relied upon to be successful or outperform any index, asset, or strategy. The returns of the strategies do not include dividends for stocks or ETFs but do account for distributions in mutual funds. Unless otherwise stated, returns of the strategies do not include all fees or other transaction costs. Management and other expenses can have a material impact on performance when compounded over time. Past performance, hypothetical or actual, does not guarantee future results. In all securities trading there is a potential for loss as well as profit. It should not be assumed that recommendations made in the future will be profitable or will equal the performance as shown. Investors should have long-term financial objectives. There are risks inherent in international investments, which may make such investments unsuitable for certain clients. These include, for example, economic, political, currency exchange, rate fluctuations, and limited availability of information on international securities. The information contained herein has been prepared without regard to any particular investor’s investment objectives, financial situation, and needs. Accordingly, investors should not act on any recommendation (express or implied) or information in this material without obtaining specific advice from their financial advisors and should not rely on information herein as the primary basis for their investment decisions. Information contained herein is based on data obtained from recognized statistical services, issuer reports or communications, or other sources believed to be reliable (“information providers”). However, such information has not been verified by DWA or the information provider and DWA and the information providers make no representations or warranties or take any responsibility as to the accuracy or completeness of any recommendation or information contained herein. DWA and the information provider accept no liability to the recipient whatsoever whether in contract, in tort, for negligence, or otherwise for any direct, indirect, consequential, or special loss of any kind arising out of the use of this document or its contents or of the recipient relying on any such recommendation or information (except insofar as any statutory liability cannot be excluded). Any statements nonfactual in nature constitute only current opinions, which are subject to change without notice. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed shall constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation or an offer to buy any securities, commodities or exchange traded products. This document does not purport to be complete description of the securities or commodities, markets or developments to which reference is made. Each investor should carefully consider the investment objectives, risks and expenses of any Exchange-Traded Fund ("ETF") prior to investing. Before investing in an ETF investors should obtain and carefully read the relevant prospectus and documents the issuer has filed with the SEC. ETF's may result in the layering of fees as ETF's impose their own advisory and other fees. To obtain more complete information about the product the documents are publicly available for free via EDGAR on the SEC website (http://www.sec.gov).