The residualisation of social housing: An update Becky Tunstall, Prof. Emeritus, University of York Becky.tunstall@york.ac.uk, 07588 630 478 www.york.ac.uk/chp @CHPResearch HSA conference, Sheffield 11th-13th April 2018 Centre for Housing Policy

U-turns Seemingly inexorable social and structural trends can reverse – eg: After constant decline since 1918, the proportion of households in private renting in England started to grow in 2001, and overtook social renting in 2011. After constant increase, the proportion in home ownership peaked at 69% of all households in 2004. These U-turns take a while to be recognised… If Right to Buy sales are stripped out, ownership peaked in 2001 at 63%. If only homes being bought with a mortgage are considered, ownership peaked in 1995 at 43%.

Three well-known facts about social housing… It is shrinking away; It houses people on low incomes; This is more and more true over time.   The first fact remains true, but less than in the past. The second fact only really started being true in the 1970s. After a U-turn, the third fact stopped being true as long ago as the 1990s.

‘Residualisation’ “the growing concentration of social tenants amongst the lowest income groups”; “one of the most pronounced trends of the 1980s and 1990s” (Hills 2007:45).

But - Hills et al. 2010… “inequalities [in income] between tenures… were actually slightly smaller in 2006-08 than they had been [in 1997-99]” (Hills et al. 2010:289). Similarly, 54% UK social renters ‘poor’ in 2001/01 46% in 2008/09 (Tunstall 2011)

2014 - Pearce and Vine* Used household income from the Survey of English Housing 1984-2010 1984-1991 - the proportion of social renting HoHs/HRPs in bottom fifth and bottom two-fifths of the income distribution increased 1991 - change stopped. The proportion in each fifth of the income distribution then remained steady 1991-2010. *Pearce, J and Vine, J (2014) ‘Quantifying residualisation: the changing nature of social housing in the UK’ Journal of Housing and the Built Environment 29(4) pp657-675

Next data: 1)-1983 - Survey of English Housing in Bentham, G (1986) ‘Socio-tenurial polarisation in England, 1953-83: The income evidence’ Urban Studies 23(2) pp157-162 2)1999/00-2015/16 - English Housing Survey

Residualisation: Proportion of households in the tenure in lowest quarter of incomes compared to the average 1953/54-1983

Residualisation: Median income of renting households as a percentage of median income of owners (gross income before housing costs, not taking account of household size), 1953/54-1983

Change: 1999/00-2015/16

Change: Economic status rates for HRPs in social housing relative to HRPs overall, 1984-2016/17

Change: Unemployment rates for HRPs in social housing relative to HRPs overall, 1984-2016/17

No change?: Unskilled manual HoH/HRPs in social renting relative to population: Overepresented 1961-81; relatively stable; recent trends unclear

Summary: 1991 - ‘Residualisation’ of social housing in terms of income ended; income mix stable 1991-2010 (Pearce and Vine 2014) Early 2000s – Residualisation ended and reversed for economic activity, employment and full-time employment rates Late 2000s – ended and reversed for unemployment Limited evidence on class More U-turns? Since 2015/16 – new trend?