TROY SCHOOL DISTRICT: ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS November 2, 2011 Frederick R. Ignatovich, Ph.D. STANFRED Consultants Frequently, presenters must deliver material of a technical nature to an audience unfamiliar with the topic or vocabulary. The material may be complex or heavy with detail. To present technical material effectively, use the following guidelines from Dale Carnegie Training®.   Consider the amount of time available and prepare to organize your material. Narrow your topic. Divide your presentation into clear segments. Follow a logical progression. Maintain your focus throughout. Close the presentation with a summary, repetition of the key steps, or a logical conclusion. Keep your audience in mind at all times. For example, be sure data is clear and information is relevant. Keep the level of detail and vocabulary appropriate for the audience. Use visuals to support key points or steps. Keep alert to the needs of your listeners, and you will have a more receptive audience.

F. Ignatovich - November 2, 2011 IT IS NOT GOOD FOR A MAN TO BE WITHOUT KNOWLEDGE, AND HE WHO MAKES HASTE WITH HIS FEET MISSES HIS WAY. (Proverbs 19:2) F. Ignatovich - November 2, 2011

This Presentation Will Focus on Two Themes The Process Used to Do the Projections The Projections for the District

THEME I: THE PROCESS DATA SOURCES CONTEXTUAL INFORMATION BIRTHS ENROLLMENT HISTORY CONTEXTUAL INFORMATION BUILDING PERMITS CENSUS PROFILE REGIONAL ENROLLMENT DATA PROGRAM AND HISTORICAL INFORMATION DISTRICT PERSONNEL

DATA SOURCES - BIRTHS ANNUALLY BIRTHS ARE REPORTED BY THE RESIDENCE OF THE MOTHER FOR EACH COUNTY IN THE UNITED STATES Sources: Michigan Department of Community Health and The National Center for Health Statistics

DATA SOURCES – ENROLLMENT HISTORY EACH FALL ENROLLMENTS ARE COUNTED, AUDITED, AND REPORTED TO THE MICHIGAN DEPARTMENT OF EDUCATION. Source: Michigan Department of Education

PROJECTING KINDERGARTEN WE DETERMINE THE PERCENTAGE OF BIRTHS THAT ENROLL IN KINDERGARTEN FIVE YEARS LATER THIS IS DONE BY COMPARING THE RESIDENT BIRTH DATA WITH ACTUAL ENROLLMENT DATA THIS IS DONE FOR A LARGE NUMBER OF YEARS F. Ignatovich - November 2, 2011

Birth to Kindergarten Ratios Troy School District SCHOOL YEAR B-K RATIO 95-96 5.10 96-97 4.69 97-98 4.55 98-99 4.42 99-00 4.58 00-01 4.46 01-02 02-03 03-04 4.67 04-05 4.61 05-06 4.65 06-07 4.95 07-08 5.46* 08-09 5.27* 09-10 5.22* 10-11 5.62* 11-12 5.66* Birth to Kindergarten Ratios Troy School District F. Ignatovich - November 2, 2011

F. Ignatovich - November 2, 2011 PROJECTING GRADES WE DETERMINE WHAT CHANGES OCCUR TO A COHORT OF STUDENTS AS THEY PROGRESS THROUGH THE GRADES. THIS IS DONE BY COMPARING THE ENROLLMENT DATA FOR A GRADE WITH THE ENROLLMENT IN THE NEXT HIGHER GRADE THE NEXT YEAR. THIS IS DONE FOR A LARGE NUMBER OF YEARS FOR EACH GRADE LEVEL. F. Ignatovich - November 2, 2011

Troy School District Kindergarten to 1st Grade Cohort Ratios SCHOOL YEAR K – 1 98-99 106.72 99-00 106.85 00-01 106.97 01-02 105.54 02-03 106.05 03-04 109.70 04-05 112.13 05-06 105.42 06-07 106.88 07-08 103.57 08-09 101.92* 09-10 10-11 106.40 11-12 111.80* F. Ignatovich - November 2, 2011

ALTERNATIVE DISTRICT PROJECTIONS WE PRODUCE THREE SETS OF PROJECTIONS WITH EACH SET ASSUMING DIFFERENT DEGREES OF UPSIDE AND DOWNSIDE OCCURRANCES AFFECTING ENROLLMENTS: LOW VOLITILITY, MEDIUM VOLITILITY, AND HIGH VOLITILITY EACH PROJECTION SET CONSISTS OF THREE ALTERNATIVE PROJECTIONS: A LOW, MOST LIKELY, AND HIGH PROJECTION A TREND ANALYSIS OF THE LAST THREE YEARS IS CONDUCTED TO DETERMINE WHICH SET OF PROJECTIONS AND THE ALTERNATIVE PROJECTION WITHIN THE SET THAT HAS BEEN THE MOST ACCURATE F. Ignatovich - November 2, 2011

CONTEXTUAL INFORMATION – BUILDING PERMITS MONTHLY THE NUMBER OF APPROVED SINGLE FAMILY HOME BUILDING PERMITS IS REPORTED FOR EACH CIVIL SUBDIVISION (E.G. CITY, VILLAGE, AND TOWNSHIP) IN OAKLAND COUNTY. Source: SEMCOG

CONTEXTUAL INFORMATION – HOUSING DEVELOPMENT AND TURNOVER Constituent Civil Subdivisions Generally Highly Developed – Development Potential for New Homes Low Within Troy School District Slow Gradual Turnover of Existing Housing Expected with Low Foreclosure and Low Vacancy Rates F. Ignatovich - November 2, 2011

CONTEXTUAL INFORMATION – CENSUS PROFILE THE 2000 CENSUS AND 2010 CENSUS PROVIDES DEMOGRAPHIC INFORMATION FOR THE STATE OF MICHIGAN AND THE MAJOR CIVIL SUBDIVISIONS OF A SCHOOL DISTRICT. Sources: 2000 CENSUS (NORTHWEST MICHIGAN COUNCIL OF GOVERNMENTS), 2010 CENSUS (SEMCOG AND THE CENSUS BUREAU )

F. Ignatovich - November 2, 2011 CENSUS COMPARISON 2000 VS 2010 MICHIGAN AND CITY OF TROY MI MI TROY TROY 2000 2010 2000 2010 6.8% vs. 6.0% 6.2% vs. 5.2% 12.3% vs. 13.8% 10.2% vs. 13.8% 73.8% vs. 72.1% 77.3% vs. 76.0% 10.6% vs. 14.6% 2.8% vs. 6.7% 26.2% vs. 27.9% 22.7% vs. 24.0% UNDER 5 YEARS 65 YEARS AND OVER OWNER OCCUPIED HOMES VACANT HOUSING UNITS RENTER OCCUPIED F. Ignatovich - November 2, 2011

CONTEXTUAL INFORMATION – REGIONAL ENROLLMENT DATA ENROLLMENTS IN OAKLAND ISD PUBLIC AND NONPUBLIC SCHOOLS OVER MULTIPLE YEARS HELP IDENTIFY TRENDS AND PROVIDES INSIGHTS REGARDING FACTORS AFFECTING ENROLLMENTS IN A LOCAL SCHOOL DISTRICT. Sources: MICHIGAN DEPARTMENT OF EDUCATION AND CEPI – MICHIGAN DEPARTMENT OF TREASURY

Regional Enrollment Data Troy School District The Number of Oakland ISD K-12 Public School Districts Was Constant From The Fall 2001 To The Fall 2009: N= 28 The Number of Non-Public Schools In Oakland ISD Decreased From 123 In The Fall 2001 To 107 In The Fall 2009 The Number of Public School Academies (PSA or Public Charter Schools) In Oakland ISD Increased From 12 In The Fall 2001 To 19 In The Fall 2009 K-12 Enrollment in Oakland ISD K-12 Public School Districts Decreased Slightly From 188,511 In The Fall of 2001 to 185,501 In The Fall of 2009 (a -3,010 loss or -1.6% over eight years) Enrollment in Oakland ISD Non-Public Schools Decreased Very Substantially From 31,029 In The Fall of 2001 to 25,447 In The Fall of 2009 (a -5,582 loss or -17.9% over eight years) K-12 Enrollment in Oakland ISD Public School Academies (PSA or Public Charter Schools) Increased dramatically From 7,017 In The Fall of 2001 to 11,034 In The Fall of 2009 (a +4,017 gain or +57.2% over eight years) F. Ignatovich - November 2, 2011

HISTORICAL AND PROGRAM INFORMATION OVER A NUMBER OF YEARS CONVERSATIONS WERE CONDUCTED TO IDENTIFY HISTORICAL EVENTS AND PROGRAM CHANGES THAT AFFECT THE PROGRESSION OF STUDENTS THROUGH THE GRADES AND ARRIVAL OR DEPARTURE OF STUDENTS IN THE DISTRICT (e.g. non-public schools, charter schools, schools of choice, migrant students, local economy, local housing, and changes in programs and policies).

Historical and Program Information Troy School District Increased Participation of Troy School District Residents in Programs of Neighboring Districts (Troy School District Residents Attending Other Public School Districts): Fall 2002 – 299, Fall 2006 – 279, Fall 2008 – 326, Fall 2009 – 395, Fall 2010 – 432) Increased Enrollment of Non-Resident Students Attending Troy School District: Fall 2002 – 295, Fall 2006 – 320, Fall 2008 – 450, Fall 2009 – 572, Fall 2010 – 683 Recent Increased Participation by Troy School District Residents Attending Charter Schools: Fall 2002 – 21, Fall 2006 – 21, Fall 2008 – 25, Fall 2009 – 39, Fall 2010 – 75 {Huron Academy 25, Michigan Virtual Charter Academy 10, Manoogian School 9, Four Corners Montessori Academy 9, Others 22}) (continued on next slide) F. Ignatovich - November 2, 2011

Historical and Program Information Troy School District Increased Intake of Kindergarten School of Choice (SOC) Students from Fall 2006 to Fall 2011 : Fall 2006 – 31, Fall 2007 – 50, Fall 2008 – 49, Fall 2009 – 71, Fall 2010 – 102, Fall 2011 – 106 Variable Intake of First Grade School of Choice Students from Fall 2006 to Fall 2011 : Fall 2006 – 20, Fall 2007 – 12, Fall 2008 – 8, Fall 2009 – 13, Fall 2010 – 28, Fall 2011 – 35 Initial Intake of Middle School SOC Students for Fall 2011 (Only at Baker Middle School): Fall 2011 – 25 Development and Phase In of High School International Academy East (IAE) Program Starting in the Fall 2008 (Grade 9) with Full Implementation in the Fall 2011 (Grades 9-12) Increased Intake of Non Resident High School Freshman (Via Tuition/Waiver/Child of Employee/IAE(105C) Fall 2008 to Fall 2011 : Fall 2008 – 30, Fall 2009 – 37, Fall 2010 – 33, Fall 2011 – 61 F. Ignatovich - November 2, 2011

THEME II: THE PROJECTIONS ENROLLMENTS AND PROJECTIONS FOR TROY SCHOOL DISTRICT TROY SD K-12 HEAD COUNT** TROY SD 6-8 HEAD COUNT** TROY SD 9-12 HEAD COUNT** TROY SD SENIOR CLASS HEAD COUNT** ** EXCLUDING ECP [EARLY CHILDHOOD PROGRAM], SCSE [SELF CONTAINED SPECIAL EDUCATION], AND GROW [POST SECONDARY SPECIAL EDUCATION] STUDENT COUNTS

F. Ignatovich - November 2, 2011

TROY SD K-12 HEAD COUNT OUTLOOK K-12 HEAD COUNT enrollment was very stable from 1997-98 to 2010-11 from 11,837 to 11,849 (an increase of +12 students or +0.1%) A very substantial increase of +287 students or +2.4% occurred from 2010-11 to 2011-12 (increasing to 12,136) The High projection indicates a moderate increase (a +706 student gain or +5.8% over five years) from 2011-12 to 2016- 17 (from 12,136 to 12,842) The Most Likely projection indicates a slight increase (a +83 student gain or +0.7% over five years) from 2011-12 to 2016- 17 (from 12,136 to 12,219) The Low projection indicates a moderate decline (a -524 student loss or -4.3% over five years) from 2011-12 to 2016- 17 (from 12,136 to 11,612) F. Ignatovich - November 2, 2011

F. Ignatovich - November 2, 2011

TROY SD K-5 HEAD COUNT OUTLOOK K-5 HEAD COUNT enrollments generally decreased from 1997-98 to 2003-04 (a -315 student loss or -6.0% over six years) from 5,230 to 4,915) K-5 HEAD COUNT enrollments generally increased from 2003-04 to 2011-12 (a +319 student gain or +6.5% over eight years) from 4,915 to 5,234) The High projection indicates a modest increase (a +147 student gain or +2.8% over five years) from 2011-12 to 2016-17 (from 5,234 to 5,381) The Most Likely projection indicates a modest loss (-108 students or -2.1% over five years) from 2011-12 to 2016-2017 (from 5,234 to 5,126) The Low projection indicates a substantial loss (-366 student loss or -7.0% over five years) from 2011-12 to 2016-2017 (from 5,234 to 4,868) F. Ignatovich - November 2, 2011

F. Ignatovich - November 2, 2011

TROY SD 6-8 HEAD COUNT OUTLOOK 6-8 HEAD COUNT enrollments generally increased from 1997-98 to 2002-03 (a +110 student gain or +3.9% over five years) from 2,855 to 2,965 6-8 HEAD COUNT enrollments generally decreased from 2002-03 to 2011-12 (a -140 student loss or -4.7% over nine years) from 2,965 to 2,825 The High projection indicates a very substantial increase (a +333 student gain or +11.8% over five years) from 2011-12 to 2016-17 (from 2,825 to 3,158) The Most Likely projection indicates a substantial increase (a +208 students gain or +7.4% over five years) from 2011-12 to 2016-2017 (from 2,825 to 3,033) The Low projection indicates a modest increase (a +86 student gain or +3.0% over five years) from 2011-12 to 2016-2017 (from 2,825 to 2,911) The ten year long range projections from 2011-12 to 2021-22 indicate: for the High a +255 student gain or +9.0%, for the Most Likely a -8 student loss or -0.3%, and for the Low a -257 student loss or -9.1%. F. Ignatovich - November 2, 2011

F. Ignatovich - November 2, 2011

TROY SD 9-12 HEAD COUNT OUTLOOK 9-12 HEAD COUNT enrollments generally increased from 1997-98 to 2006- 07 (a +479 student gain or +12.8% over nine years) from 3,752 to 4,231 9-12 HEAD COUNT enrollments generally decreased from 2006-07 to 2011- 12 (a -154 student loss or -3.6% over five years) from 4,231 to 4,077 The High projection indicates a moderate increase (a +226 student gain or +5.5% over five years) from 2011-12 to 2016-17 (from 4,077 to 4,303) The Most Likely projection indicates a slight loss (-17 students loss or -0.4% over five years) from 2011-12 to 2016-2017 (from 4,077 to 4,060) The Low projection indicates a moderate loss (-244 student loss or -6.0% over five years) from 2011-12 to 2016-2017 (from 4,077 to 3,833) The ten year long range projections from 2011-12 to 2021-22 indicate: for the High a +902 student gain or +22.1%, for the Most Likely a +403 student gain or +9.9%, and for the Low a -55 student loss or -1.3% F. Ignatovich - November 2, 2011

F. Ignatovich - November 2, 2011

TROY SD SENIOR CLASS HEAD COUNT OUTLOOK Senior Class HEAD COUNT enrollments generally increased from 1997-98 to 2007-08 (a +232 student gain or +24.8% over ten years) from 934 to 1,166 Senior Class HEAD COUNT enrollments generally decreased from 2007-08 to 2011-12 (a -122 student loss or -10.5% over four years) from 1,166 to 1,044 The High projection indicates a substantial increase (a +75 student gain or +7.2% over five years) from 2011-12 to 2016-17 (from 1,044 to 1,119) The Most Likely projection indicates virtually no change (a +1 student gain of less than +0.1% over five years) from 2011-12 to 2016-2017 (from 1,044 to 1,045) The Low projection indicates a substantial decrease (-69 student loss or -6.6% over five years) from 2011-12 to 2016-2017 (from 1,044 to 975) The ten year long range projections from 2011-12 to 2021-22 indicate: for the High a +219 student gain or +21.0%, for the Most Likely a +88 student gain or +8.4%, and for the Low a -32 student loss or -3.1% F. Ignatovich - November 2, 2011

-4.3% +0.7% +5.8% -7.0% -2.1% +2.8% +3.0% +7.4% +11.8% -6.0% -0.4% SUMMARY OF HEAD COUNT PROJECTIONS TROY SCHOOL DISTRICT FROM 2011-12 TO 2016-17 GRADE LEVEL TROY SCHOOL DISTRICT LOW TROY SCHOOL DISTRICT MOST LIKELY TROY SCHOOL DISTRICT HIGH K-12 -4.3% +0.7% +5.8% K-5 -7.0% -2.1% +2.8% 6-8 +3.0% +7.4% +11.8% 9-12 -6.0% -0.4% +5.5% SENIOR CLASS -6.6% + 0.1% +7.2% F. Ignatovich - November 2, 2011

F. Ignatovich - November 2, 2011 So what should we expect? For Facilities Planning Purposes: We suggest expecting future enrollments to fall between the Most Likely and High projections closer to the Most Likely –- two times the Most Likely plus the High divided by three. F. Ignatovich - November 2, 2011

F. Ignatovich - November 2, 2011 Listen To Advice And Accept Instruction, That You May Gain Wisdom For The Future. (Proverbs 19:20) F. Ignatovich - November 2, 2011