What can CREATE contribute to SUMPs? Peter Jones Scientific Coordinator SUMPS Co-ordinating Group Meeting, Brussels, 7th and 8th June, 2017

The Proposition The SUMP is an important policy tool that encourages cities to look well beyond providing for private motor vehicles and instead to promote sustainable urban mobility But it is now recognised by leading cities that transport systems play a much wider role in delivering city visions Although SUMP guidance alludes to this, it seems that it is not yet well embedded in SUMP practice CREATE can assist in this, in several ways

What is CREATE? ‘Transport Policy Development Process’ Planning for people movement: public transport, walking & cycling; car restraint Planning for city life: transport as ‘place’, remove obtrusive transport infrastructure, support other objectives (e.g. health) Planning for motor vehicles: road building, parking

Car Driver Modal Shares over Time

Observed Stages of Policy Development Stage 1: vehicles - promoting car ownership and car use 1A: colonisation of carriageways and footways by motorised vehicles 1B: investment in urban motorways and multi-storey car parks Stage 2: person movement – encouraging efficiency and sustainability 2A: investment in high-capacity public transport systems, for station-to-station flows 2B: emphasis on ‘seamless’ travel, inclusive, door-to-door journeys and encouraging walking and cycling; reallocation of road space and restraint of car traffic Stage 3: city life – encouraging place making and liveability 3A: ‘place-making’ in transport infrastructure (railway stations, urban streets); remove obtrusive transport infrastructure 3B: heavily involvement of transport in achieving non-transport policies (e.g. health, regeneration)

Focus of Most Existing SUMPs Stage 1: vehicles - promoting car ownership and car use 1A: colonisation of carriageways and footways by motorised vehicles 1B: investment in urban motorways and multi-storey car parks Stage 2: person movement – encouraging efficiency and sustainability 2A: investment in high-capacity public transport systems, for station-to-station flows 2B: emphasis on ‘seamless’ travel, inclusive, door-to-door journeys and encouraging walking and cycling; reallocation of road space and restraint of car traffic Stage 3: city life – encouraging place making and liveability 3A: ‘place-making’ in transport infrastructure (railway stations, urban streets); remove obtrusive transport infrastructure 3B: heavily involvement of transport in achieving non-transport policies (e.g. health, regeneration)

Dubrovnik SUMP conference 30/03/17

CREATE’s Contribution Articulating what a Stage 3 city looks like Including forecasting and appraisal implications Advising cities on how to compress the journey from Stage 1 to Stage 3 Setting out ideas for future city development – a possible Stage 4?

‘Stage 3’ Characteristics Focus on place-making and liveability New types of objectives, indicators and appraisal Re-assessment of the transport planning process: from ‘predict and provide’ to ‘vision and validate’

Stage 3A: Motorway Removal and Place Making Portland Seoul Stage 1 Stage 3A

Stage 3: Street Redesign 1

Stage 3: TfL’s London-wide Street Classification

Indicators by Stage Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 Average network speeds Day-to-day variability Vehicle congestion Car parking availability Road traffic accidents Noise Air pollution PT frequency and reliability Access to bus stops & stations Safety and security Seamless travel PT modal split Walking/cycling modal shares Door-to-door travel times by mode Time use in transport modes Intensity of street activities Time spent in local area Value of high quality public space Health of the population Social interaction Social equity and inclusion Community severance

New indicator: severance caused by different types of roads UK EPSRC Research Project Provisional unpublished results

Severance index vs. willingness to pay Provisional unpublished results

‘Predict and Provide’ Can be traced back to 1960s Urban Land Use/ Transportation Studies: Forecast likely growth in car ownership and use Demonstrate inability of existing road networks to cope with this increased demand Propose major road building to avoid extreme congestion and gridlock (maybe with demand management) Iterate plans until major problems addressed (or budget/political limits reached)

Proposal: ‘Vision and Validation’ - 1 Develop comprehensive future city/country vision, with strong stakeholder engagement: desired living patterns and achievement of a set of agreed outcomes Identify what transport can contribute to delivering the vision: major/minor investments - plus (more flexible) pricing and regulatory measures Ensure co-ordinated with other sector strategies (e.g. health, education)

Proposal: ‘Vision and Validation’ - 2 Determine under what future range of conditions and behavioural responses this package of policies would provide good value for money – stress test Then see how the programme can be tweaked to increase robustness, by covering more of the fan of possibilities – ‘Real Options Analysis’ Iterate with appraisal – but multi-sector, as many benefits from transport will accrue to other sectors, and actions by other sectors affect travel demand

‘P & P’ vs ‘V & V’ ‘P & P’ ‘V & V’ Present Future 1. Forecasts, with uncertainty 2. Develop set of schemes which meet some parts of fan of possible demands, plus other objectives ‘P & P’ 2. Generate ‘fan of possibilities’ 1. Develop vision for future living 3. Stress test to see over what range of futures valid, and seek to expand robustness 4. Develop feasible trajectory from ‘then’ to ‘now’ by backcasing ‘V & V’

And more... A Possible ‘Stage 4’? Many cities are experiencing rapid population growth, and fear that all transport networks will become overloaded – ‘Stage 3’ is not enough CREATE is exploring a possible ‘Stage 4’ Maybe with a stronger emphasis on optimising infrastructure use through cross-sector planning (e.g. retail, health) ‘systems of ‘systems’ approaches Or will AVs take us back to Stage 1?!!

A progression to Stage 4? Stage 4?

On-going Development of Stages 1 and 2 MaaS AVs Stage 4?

Potential impact of AVs – do we repeat history? AV-dominated cities?? Stage 4? …OR?

Alternative city trajectories Source: analysis by Roger Teoh, MSc Dissertation Imperial/UCL 2016

Thank you ! peter.jones@ucl.ac.uk http://www.create-mobility.eu