R&D Funding in 2018 and Beyond: An Update Matt Hourihan December 14, 2017 For the NCURA Region 1 Research Administrators Discussion Group AAAS R&D Budget and Policy Program http://www.aaas.org/program/rd-budget-and-policy-program

Congress has had somewhat different ideas…

1. The Fiscal Context – a.k.a. the size of the sandbox

But Congress has mostly not gone along with these proposed cap changes… Senate rules: need 60 votes to change, giving Dems (who want defense and nondefense increases) power Defense hawks: want to see even bigger defense increase, and many willing to accept an increase in nondefense spending to get it Moderate Republicans: not in favor of the harsh fiscal choices in FY18 budget, or otherwise are “Senate realists” "This is once again an act of Senate denial," Rep. Charlie Dent (R-PA), on current talks to get defense bill through alone Fiscal conservatives: not generally in favor of more nondefense spending, but can accept in return for bigger fish entitlement spending, tax reform, border wall, etc Thus, appropriators’ working framework has been fairly close to current law for nondefense, while busting far past the caps for defense

2. What Congress Actually Does on Science Spending

Some Factors That Bear on Appropriations Decisions “All politics is local” Jobs Outreach by constituents Values and ideology Role of government versus role of industry (Anti) Regulation Public interest concerns Competitiveness, health, energy security, national security Eliminating waste, inefficiency, duplication Individual legislator interests Balance and tradeoffs: need to achieve a bill that attracts sufficient votes

Labor, HHS, Education Subcommittee House Senate Chair Tom Cole (OK) Roy Blunt (MO) Ranking Member Rosa DeLauro (CT) Patty Murray (WA) Deep divisions over public health programs, education, DOL Everybody likes NIH lately House: +3.2% (+$1.1 billion) Senate: +5.6% (+$2.0 billion) Especially Alzheimer’s research F&A changes prohibited, Fogarty protected Includes 21st Century Cures funding Others: BioShield and BARDA flat IES flat or trimmed CDC cut Opioids funding

Energy & Water Subcommittee House Senate Chair Mike Simpson (ID) Lamar Alexander (TN) Ranking Member Marcy Kaptur (OH) Dianne Feinstein (CA) Tradeoffs: Balancing basic research and facilities, labs, tech portfolio, NNSA; also Army Corps, Bureau of Reclamation NNSA prioritized Office of Science: flat in House, +3% in Senate ASCR boosted in both (exascale, facilities) BES: facilities prioritized over research Variation on Fusion Science Applied tech: Mixed reductions ARPA-E zeroed in House Very mixed for EERE, Fossil, Nuclear, grid Hubs, manufacturing institutes, other research centers mostly preserved

Commerce, Justice, Science Subcommittee House Senate Chair John Culberson (TX) Richard Shelby (AL) Ranking Member Jose Serrano (NY) Jeanne Shaheen (NH) Tradeoffs: Balancing Justice, Commerce, NASA, NSF; smaller bills this year NSF: Cut by ~2% in both House: no funding for vessels; social science targeted on floor Senate: research, EHR trimmed NASA: recent priority, but modest this year Variation in Science Directorate funding; Exploration favored; Education protected NOAA: Sea Grant, most research protected Climate research cut by 19% in House Major differences re: Polar Follow-On NIST: Senate more generous; labs fare better than industrial innovation programs Census: boosted by 4%, but is it enough?

3. Where Are We Headed?

Looking Ahead FY18 spending caps: Where do we end up? Looking like we’re getting a good cap deal? FY18 appropriations: CR in place until later December Last time we got a cap deal, most agencies fared pretty well in the final omnibus Will the White House ultimately go along with any of this? Signaled willingness to sign House omnibus, and at the table for cap discussions now Implications of other issues: tax reform, border wall, DACA, etc? FY 2019 budget coming soon: don’t expect too many changes FY 2020: major cliff, then caps expire after FY 2021

Ultimately: Decent Odds This 2018 Picture Ends up Looking Better…we’ll know soon

mhouriha@aaas.org 202-326-6607 http://www.aaas.org/RD For more info… mhouriha@aaas.org 202-326-6607 http://www.aaas.org/RD