South Louisiana: Will We Adapt to Ocean Rise? Edward P. Richards Professor of Law LSU Law Center richards@lsu.edu

Thesis Worldwide, hard choices need to made about global warming and adaption Ocean rise threatens the lives and communities of hundreds of millions The US must lead by example Most of south La will be inundated by 2100 Are we denying global warming by our actions in South LA?

2100

Is 2100 Realistic? Green house gasses have a long residence time, so there is a 30-50 year lag It will be decades before there are meaningful reductions Southern LA independent of ocean rise Consolidating river delta on a sinking crustal plate Huge lose of land due to sinking, NOT erosion

Can Coastal Restoration Save Us?

Coastal Elevations

What about Levees? Destroy the land on both sides Cannot resist hurricanes Katrina did not hit NO, just brushed it Structural issues Feds and state will lose interest Damage to wetlands to get the clay Require maintenance - LA? USA? The Dutch do not have hurricanes

Possible Future 1 - Punctuated Catastrophe Southern LA and NO continue on current lines Feds put in enough money to limit criticism and keep projects going Everyone says we are safe now Region has catastrophic flood Relative sea level continues to increase Repeat until there is nothing left to rebuild on

Example to the World Same thing is happening in Bangladesh We are trying to avoid regional war over where the refugees will go India says, what are you doing in LA? Why don't you build levees and restore our coast? Can the US say that is crazy and cannot work?

Possible Future 2 Same as 1, but some local adaptation like floating houses, but no real changes Catastrophic storm Population scatters, this time we restrict development, make some land use changes to protect the core Buys 50 years for the rich and business Still not a very good example

Possible Future 3 - Strategic Relocation We think of south LA and NO as if it were one of those island nations that is going to either wash away or be relocated. We preserve NO-Atlantis We create cultural NO up river

How Do We Get to 3? Reimagine land use Charge mitigation against owners ?? Change Incentives in Flood Insurance You can get bought out before you flood You can never rebuild You fill in the rest - this is intergenerational This is what we want to work on at LSU