Elections and campaigns Chapter 10

Copyright © 2018 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved. Learning Objectives 10.1 Describe the ideas that molded the Framers’ thinking about elections 10.2 Outline the steps in presidential campaigns 10.3 Identify the issues that shape presidential campaigns 10.4 Outline the steps in congressional campaigns 10.5 Determine which issues shape congressional campaigns Copyright © 2018 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved.

The Constitutional Requirements for Elections 1 of 6 Presidential Elections The Electoral College Problems with the Electoral College Never worked as Framers envisioned Electoral College Reform Eliminating it would decrease the role of states Small states see merit in the system L.O. 10.1: Describe the ideas that molded the Framers’ thinking about elections. Electoral College: The presidential electors, selected every four years to represent the votes of their respective states, who meet to cast the electoral votes for president and vice president. popular vote: Tally of total votes from individual citizens, as opposed to the electoral vote. Key Questions Why did the Framers set up gates against popular participation in elections? Why did the Framers give so much authority over presidential elections to the states? Is the winner-take-all system fair? How did the emergence of political parties change the way the Framers hoped elections would work? What inequalities does state control of elections introduce? Should the Electoral College be eliminated? What would be the consequences? Copyright © 2018 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved.

How the Electoral College Works Figure 10.1 This map shows each state’s number of electors for the 2016 election, allocated on the basis of the 2010 census. In every state but two, the winner of the popular vote takes all of the electoral votes. Maine and Nebraska allocate votes by congressional district and so can split their electoral votes. The flowchart on the left shows the process by which popular votes are transferred to Electoral College votes. Copyright © 2018 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved.

The Constitutional Requirements for Elections 2 of 6 The 1876 election was contested, and its outcome was determined by an electoral commission. Some feared public disturbances at the inauguration, so Rutherford B. Hayes, who had won the Electoral College but not the popular vote, took the oath of office privately in the White House. The formal ceremony at the Capitol, two days later, was peaceful. Source: Library of Congress Prints and Photographs Division [ LC-DIG-ggbain-03138] Copyright © 2018 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved.

The Constitutional Requirements for Elections 3 of 6 The 2000 Presidential Election Albert Gore Jr. and George W. Bush Gore received more votes Florida too close to call on election night Demand for a recount Raised distrust of system (short-term) Copyright © 2018 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved.

The Constitutional Requirements for Elections 4 of 6 Congressional Elections Senate Elections Seventeenth Amendment One-third up for election at a time House Elections and Redistricting Entire House up for election every two years Always been elected by the people Representatives based on population Gerrymandering redistricting: Process whereby state legislatures redraw the boundaries of congressional districts in the state to make them equal in population size. gerrymandering: Redistricting that blatantly benefits one political party over the other or concentrates (or dilutes) the voting impact of racial and ethnic groups. Key Questions How do differences in term lengths and constituencies affect how senators and House members behave? Do majority-minority districts help advance equality or introduce inequalities? Copyright © 2018 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved.

The Constitutional Requirements for Elections 5 of 6 The term gerrymander comes from the salamander-shaped district in Massachusetts (above left), which Governor Elbridge Gerry approved following the census of 1810. Political rivals denounced the blatant seeking of political advantage that had produced such an oddly shaped congressional district, and the taunt stuck, passing into common usage in politics. Nevertheless, gerrymandered districts remain. In 1991, a North Carolina redistricting was designed to create a district with African Americans in the majority (above right). Federal courts later ruled that North Carolina had to revise these district lines so that the congressional district was more compact. NorthWindPicture Archives/Alamy Election Data Services, Inc. Copyright © 2018 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved.

The Constitutional Requirements for Elections 6 of 6 Other Elections Only election in Constitution is for the House Many types of elections today Public sees elections as way to make political choice Key Questions: Do you think more elections mean more democracy? Copyright © 2018 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved.

Presidential Campaign 1 of 4 Evolution of the Modern Campaign George Washington didn’t want to be seen as a monarch Allowed political parties to work on his behalf Early 20th century saw presidential candidates campaigning too Concern over the permanent campaign L.O. 10.2: Outline the steps in presidential campaigns. permanent campaign: Charge that presidents and members of Congress focus more on winning the next election than on governing. Key Questions Do presidential campaigns ensure that the best person for the office wins? Copyright © 2018 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved.

Presidential Campaign (2 of 4) In 1896, William McKinley, former House member and governor of Ohio, ran for president from his front porch in Canton, Ohio. Visitors arrived by train, and he spoke to groups of them, sometimes several times a day. In contrast, his opponent, William Jennings Bryan, traveled all over the country by train, speaking to crowds from the back of train cars. McKinley won. Source: The Granger Collection, NYC Copyright © 2018 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved.

Presidential Campaign 3 of 4 The Decision to Run and the Invisible Primary Caucuses and Primaries 70% of states use primaries 30% of states use caucuses Take place January to June invisible primary: Period just before the primaries begin during which candidates attempt to capture party support and media coverage. Key Questions Were you satisfied with the option you were offered in 2016, a choice between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump? Why or why not? Copyright © 2018 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved.

The Road to the White House Time Frame Event Beginning two to three years prior to the election year Decision to run, in which candidates weigh their options and make formal announcements Invisible primary, in which candidates jockey for position and build momentum Beginning in the election year Caucuses and primaries, in which the people vote, and one candidate in each party emerges as the frontrunner Summer of election year National party conventions, in which the front-runner in each party is formally nominated and gives an acceptance speech that kicks off the fall campaign Fall of election year National campaign, during which televised debates are a highlight November of election year Election day, in which the people vote December of election year Electoral College, in which electors meet in their state capitals and formally elect the president January after election year Inauguration day Table 10.1 © Cengage Learning Copyright © 2018 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved.

Presidential Campaign 4 of 4 The National Convention Prior to 1960s unclear who would be nominee Today chance for activists/party leaders to gather Presidential Debates Managed by non-partisan, nonprofit Commission on Presidential Debates First debate between Kennedy and Nixon Debates have more risk than reward Key Questions: Do you recall any of the 2016 elections? If so, what do you remember? Copyright © 2018 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved.

Issues in Presidential Campaigns 1 of 6 Fundraising and Money Federal Election Campaign Act (1971) Candidates raise money outside of public system Super PACs Concerns about influence of money on election process Less transparency today L.O. 10.3: Identify the issues that shape presidential campaigns. Super PACs: Independent groups that can raise unlimited amounts of money from individuals, labor unions, and corporations and can spend it to support or oppose political candidates but cannot coordinate directly with candidates or political parties. Key Questions What are the pros and cons of laws that regulate campaign finance? Are presidential campaigns too expensive? Are presidential campaigns fair? Copyright © 2018 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved.

Total Spending by Presidential Candidates, 1976-2016 Figure 10.2 Spending in presidential campaigns has been increasing greatly in the past four decades, with particularly large increases in the past decade. A few weeks before Election Day in 2016, spending by presidential candidates had reached almost $1.9 billion. Source: From “presidential Fundraising and Spending 1976-2008,” center for responsive politics, 2008; https://www.opensecrets.org/pres12; https://www.opensecrets.org/pres16. Copyright © 2018 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved.

Issues in Presidential Campaigns 2 of 6 Swing Voters and States Might vote either Republican or Democrat 90% of campaign visits to battleground states Microtargeting Replacing traditional polling techniques Many versions of the same message swing voters: Voters who are neither reliably Republican nor reliably Democratic and who are pursued by each party during an election, as they can determine which candidate wins. swing states: States that are not clearly pro-Republican or pro- Democrat and therefore are of vital interest to presidential candidates, as they can determine election outcomes. battleground state: State in which the outcome of the presidential election is uncertain and in which both candidates invest much time and money, especially if its votes are vital for a victory in the Electoral College. microtargeting: Gathering detailed information on cross sections of the electorate to track potential supporters and tailor political messages for them; also called narrowcasting. Key Questions Do you live in a swing or battleground state? What is the impact on you? What is your microtargeting profile? Can the category predict how you will vote? Copyright © 2018 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved.

Issues in Presidential Campaigns 3 of 6 Campaign Issues Valence issues: vague claim to a goal Position issues: voters understand plan Wedge issues: can break up opposition’s coalition Negativity President Johnson’s “Daisy spot” valence issues: Noncontroversial or widely supported campaign issues that are unlikely to differ among candidates. position issues: Political issues that offer specific policy choices and often differentiate candidates’ views and plans of action. wedge issue: Divisive issue focused on a particular group of the electorate that candidates use to gain more support by taking votes away from their opponents. negativity: Campaign strategy of telling voters why they should not vote for the opponent and of highlighting information that raises doubts about the opponent. Key Questions What should shape a presidential campaign- issue or character? Identify three wedge issues that are important to you. Do they determine your vote? What is your response to negative ads? Copyright © 2018 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved.

Issues in Presidential Campaigns 4 of 6 Negative campaigning is not new. This poster from the 1864 election shows Abraham Lincoln defining his opponent, General George McClellan, as the ally of Confederate President Jefferson Davis and perpetuator of the slave system. Lincoln, on the other hand, is for the workingman and freedom. Notice the integrated school with happy children. The Granger Collection NYC Copyright © 2018 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved.

Issues in Presidential Campaigns 5 of 6 Source: AP Images/Democratic National Committee The “Daisy spot” is perhaps the most famous negative ad in American history. It was aired only once by President Lyndon Johnson in the 1964 campaign, and it never explicitly mentioned his opponent, Senator Barry Goldwater. But Goldwater had made statements about the possible use of nuclear weapons, and those statements made the meaning of this ad clear and emotionally resonant. Copyright © 2018 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved.

Copyright © 2018 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved. Share of Positive, Contrast, and Negative Ads in President Campaigns 2000-2016 Figure 10.3 Negativity in presidential campaigns is clearly on the rise. In 2016, only 60% of ads were negative ads, but this was largely a result of Donald Trump running primarily positive ads. Of the Trump campaign’s ads, 37% were negative, whereas 51.5% of the Hillary Clinton campaign’s ads were negative. Note: Data from 2000, 2004 and 2008 come from the Wisconsin Advertising Project. Data from 2012 come from the Wesleyan Media Project. Data from 2012 and 2016 come from the Wesleyan Media Project. Source: Erika Franklin Fowler* and Travis N. Ridout, “Negative, Angry, and Ubiquitous: Political Advertising in 2012,” DOI 10.1515/forum-2013-0004, The Forum 2012, 10(4): 51–61. Source: John G. Geer, © Cengage Learning. Copyright © 2018 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved.

Issues in Presidential Campaigns 6 of 6 Polls and Prediction Models Best prediction models use Economy Presidential popularity Incumbent party’s time in office Retrospective voting retrospective voting Theory that voting is driven by a citizen’s assessment of an officeholder’s performance since the last election. Copyright © 2018 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved.

Congressional Campaigns The Decision to Run and the Primaries Midterm elections The Fall Campaign After primaries, candidates try to attract moderate voters Geographic size of district affects strategy L.O. 10.4: Outline the steps in congressional campaigns. midterm elections Congressional elections held between the presidential elections. Key Questions What is the personal background of your representative? Of your senators? Did you vote in a 2016 Senate election? Why or why not? Copyright © 2018 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved.

Issues in Congressional Campaigns 1 of 2 Fundraising and Money In 2014 elections, candidates spent more than $4 billion in congressional races Personal wealth provides an advantage The Role of Political Parties Can only engage in general activities Voter registration drives Partisan rallies L.O. 10.5: Determine which issues shape congressional campaigns. Key Questions Are term limits for Congress a good idea? What are the pros and the cons? Copyright © 2018 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved.

Reelection Rates of Incumbents in Congress, 1996–2016 Figure 10.5 Once elected, U.S. Senators and Representatives often are reelected to office as many times as they choose to run again. Source: https://www.opensecrets.org/bigpicture/reelect.php. Copyright © 2018 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved.

Issues in Congressional Campaigns 2 of 2 Incumbency Advantage Vanishing marginals Safe seats A call for term limits Relative Lack of Interest Presidential coattails Strategic politician hypothesis vanishing marginals: Trend marking the decline of competitive congressional elections. safe seat: Seat in Congress considered to be reliably held by one party or the other. term limits: Rule restricting the number of terms an elected official can serve in a given office. presidential coattails: Effect of a popular president or presidential candidate on congressional elections, boosting votes for members of his party. strategic politician hypothesis: Effect that the strength of the economy and the popularity of the sitting president have on the decision to run for Congress. Key Questions If Congress is supposed to be the branch closest to the people, why do congressional campaigns generate less interest than do presidential campaigns? What might be the basis for your vote in the upcoming 2016 congressional elections? Copyright © 2018 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved.

Copyright © 2018 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved. Loss of Seats in the House of Representatives by the President’s Party in Midterm Elections, 1938-2014 Figure 10.6 The president’s party usually loses seats in midterm elections, sometimes with the consequence that the majority in the House of Representatives or the Senate changes hands. Source: Gerhard Peters, “Seats in Congress Gained/Lost by the President’s Party in Mid-Term Elections,” The American Presidency Project, Ed. John T. Woolley and Gerhard Peters, Santa Barbara, CA: University of California, 1999-2012, http://www.presidency.ucsb. edu/data/mid-term elections.php. © 1999-2012, Gerhard Peters, The American Presidency Project. Reproduced by permission. Data for 2014, http://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/live_results/2014/house/. Copyright © 2018 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved.

Elections, Campaigns, and Democracy Need to set aside partisanship to assess American political system Elections and campaigns ensure government responsiveness Votes forge accountability Copyright © 2018 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved.