Political Socialization/ Public Opinion How do we learn about politics and develop our political attitudes? How do political scientists measure political knowledge and political attitudes (public opinion)?

Political Socialization Defined: process by which an individual acquires his/her political orientations—knowledge, attitudes, opinions When? Basics by age 12, but continues Agents? Family School Peers Media Church

Differential Political Socialization Race/Ethnicity Immigration Status Gender Region/Location Events Age Cohort

Measuring Public Opinion Polling: Market research Literary Digest Election forecasting (1916-1936) 1936 Election Literary Digest vs. Gallup 10 million vs. 1,500 respondents

Are Polls Always Right? 1948 Election – “Dewey Defeats Truman”

Where Do Polls Go Wrong?, I Unrepresentative Sample Question Wording

Question Wording: Potential Problems Biased / Leading Questions: Encourages a particular response. Examples:  Democratic Congressman in Texas: “A drive has recently been announced to destroy the independence of Congress by purging Congressmen who refuse to be rubber stamps for the executive arm of government. Would you want your representative in Congress to surrender to the purge threat and become a rubber-stamped Congressman?” Perot mail survey: “Should we eliminate foreign lobbyists completely – no loopholes – and make it a criminal offense?” “Should laws be passed to eliminate all possibilities of special interest giving huge sums of money to candidates?”

Question Wording: Potential Problems Double-barreled questions (i.e., multiple stimuli): including more than one attitude object or stimuli in the question. Examples: “Do you agree with the statement that the situation in Iraq is deteriorating and that the US should increase the number of troops in Iraq?” Should Congress cut taxes and increase defense spending?

Question Wording: Potential Problems Ambiguous questions: Asks for evaluation of a concept that is not clearly defined. Often undefined time/location Examples: Bad: What is your income? Better: What was your total family income last year? Bad: Who did you vote for? Better: Which candidate did you vote for in the last presidential election?

Question Wording: Potential Problems Negative & Double Negatives: Negative and double negative statements can confuse R’s and bias results Examples: Do you agree or disagree that speed limits should not be lowered? Holocaust Poll: Bad (Roper): “Does is seem possible, or does it seem impossible to you that the Nazi extermination of the Jews never happened?” (~34%) Better (Gallup): “Does it seem possible to you that the Nazi extermination of the Jews never happened, or do you feel certain that it happened?” (<10%)

Question Wording: Potential Problems Balanced Arguments – must include options for support and opposition. R’s more likely to agree with a statement Examples: “Do you favor the death penalty?” vs. “Do you favor or oppose the death penalty?” “Do you think spending on welfare should be cut?” vs. “Do you think spending on welfare should be cut, kept the same, or increased?”

Question Wording: Potential Problems The Middle Position – must include a middle/neutral option Otherwise R’s forced to choose agree or disagree Example: “Do you think spending on welfare should be increased or decreased?” “Do you think spending on welfare should be increased, decreased, or stay the same?”

Question Wording: Potential Problems Response Acquiescence: People tend to agree rather than disagree when they have no opinion or don’t understand the question. Example (from same survey): a. “Should people have the right to purchase a sexually explicit book, magazine, or movie?” (80% agree) b. “Community authorities should be able to prohibit the selling of pornography?” (65% agree)

Other Problems, I Social Desirability Distortion (Bradley Effect): Questions that request answer that would reveal socially undesirable trait/opinion Sensitive issues most susceptible Expressing an Opinion without having one/Misreporting Gender/Race of Interviewer Examples: Did you vote? Racially sensitive questions Duke Experiment

Other Problems,II Assuming Political Knowledge: Wording of questions must be accessible to most R’s—pitch at 6th Grade level Example: “Do you agree or disagree that a proportional system of representation should be established for the city council?”

Other Problems Late Deciders Cell Phones Margin of Error Misleading Presentation

Use of Polling Data Public opinion data Election “horserace” (Mis)interpretation of data Margin of Error Rasmussen poll – MoE ± 3

Figure 3: Election Results Reflect Geographic Pattern Fig. 4-3, p. 112

Figure 4: Most States Are Purple Fig. 4-4, p. 113

Testing Political Knowledge Name the 5 1st Amendment rights 1 in 1000 Name these 5 Simpsons: 1 in 5

Does low political knowledge threaten democracy? “The best argument against democracy is a five minute conversation with the average voter.” Winston Churchill Does low political knowledge threaten democracy?