2010 Census Report Guide

Interpreting the numbers Objective – to look at all groups/districts/counties and identify their individual needs All Groups/districts are individual can’t compare unless normalised (ie looking at each individual history and drawing conclusions based on individual trends) –not comparing to other groups in the same county or district. Use census results to look at underlying trends in following areas… Actual numbers over 10 years Trend over 10 years Year on Year trends % of females Numbers per group Retention / attrition between sections Each Pack has the following pages…. Overall District / County / Regional Summary sheet with all the tables and graphs A similar statistic sheet for each County / District / Group etc within the District / County / Region A summary sheet which details all the RAG statuses for category and group / district / county etc with an overall RAG based on number of green / Amber and red statuses A sectional summary for ACC’s or ADCs to look at trends in their section – this includes a Leaders (sectional leaders and assistants) and Adults (commissioners, fellowship activity instructors, administrators etc)

Understanding the tables Year of Census Census 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 Beavers 137 139 153 144 129 138 143 170 Cubs 147 149 142 150 152 185 205 Scouts 111 118 134 145 140 146 128 130 160 Explorers (inc VS) 58 51 36 29 35 37 33 19 23 28 Network Total Youth 453 457 465 469 450 436 439 503 563 Leaders 91 90 94 92 88 96 104 Other Adults 13 5 11 18 34 25 9 Total Membership 557 553 566 577 589 579 558 555 624 676 No Of Groups 12 14 15 Sections Explorer numbers before 2004 include Venture Scout numbers – These are NOT Included in Network figures Sectional Leaders & Sectional Assistants Does not include Network registered elsewhere No of groups registered (this can include dormant groups if not officially closed) Other adults – Includes Commissioners, Activity iIstructors, Administrators, Scout Active Support, Fellowship etc

Interpreting the numbers – RAG Statuses RAG status are showing significant changes in trend (ie the following statistics) Greater than the mean (over last 10 years) – GREEN (ie statistic higher than average over last 10 years) Greater than the mean minus 1 standard deviation – GREEN (ie statistic lower than average but not a significant change) Greater than mean minus 2 standard deviations – AMBER (within 95% of the statistics over the last 10 years but approaching the threshold for a significant change) Less than the mean minus 2 standard deviations – RED (ie statistic falls outside the 95% confidence interval and hence a significant change from last 10 years) 2 stdev 1 stdev Mean < Mean – 2 St dev Over last 10 years Over last 10 years Mean – 1 stdev <= < Mean – 1 St dev Over last 10 years >= Mean Over last 10 years 1 std Deviation 2 std Deviation

Example - Interpreting the 10 year figures This table should be used in conjunction with the change over time table Table displays actual numbers since 2001 – the volume over time graphs display this graphically Census 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 Beavers 137 139 153 144 129 138 143 170 Cubs 147 149 142 150 152 185 205 Scouts 111 118 134 145 140 146 128 130 160 Explorers (inc VS) 58 51 36 29 35 37 33 19 23 28 Network Total Youth 453 457 465 469 450 436 439 503 563 Leaders 91 90 94 92 88 96 104 Other Adults 13 5 11 18 34 25 9 Total Membership 557 553 566 577 589 579 558 555 624 676 No Of Groups 12 14 15 Total Youth Figures are reducing but still green so not yet significant Scout Figures have been dropping over 10 years but are nearing significant over the last 2 years

Example - Interpreting the 10 year % Change figures This table should be used in conjunction with the change over time graphs Table looks at % increase / decrease from current year to baseline year of 2001 ie % change in numbers since 2001 Change over time 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 Beavers -30% -24% -19% -13% -16% -15% -23% -29% 0% Cubs -7% -3% -14% -10% -17% 6% 20% Scouts -25% -21% -9% -20% 3% 9% -12% Explorers (inc VS) 62% 81% 104% 92% 100% 73% 35% 27% Network Total Youth -8% -2% Leaders -6% -5% -11% Total Membership -4% All figures 0 as no network Introduction of Explorer Scouting had significant improvement in age range figures Scout Reduction now approaching significant All 0 as this is The benchmark Total membership reduction now approaching significant

Interpreting the numbers – % Change over 10 years graphs The graphs are of the % change over time tables They also have added in the % of females at each year Solid lines are the group / district / county in question, dotted lines are the county / district/ region that they belong to Dramatic decline in numbers of cubs at the start of the decade, female numbers also declined Following centenary Cub numbers increasing However female % are Static at around 12% so increase is both male and female in equal proportions Numbers still dropping from 2003 to 2007, however decline is flattening probably due to programme re-launches, uniforms and media campaign building up to centenary. During this time female numbers are increasing which will also be slowing down the decline

Interpreting the numbers – Year on Year Change This table should be used in conjunction with the change over time table to identify differences between significant statistics in the two tables which give an early view of trends which are starting to change Year on Year Change 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 Beavers 4% 1% -4% 8% 9% -2% -7% 6% -6% 0% Cubs -1% Scouts 2% 7% -5% Explorers (inc VS) 16% 22% 53% Network -80% 30% 130% -41% 100% Total Youth 5% Leaders -3% Total Membership Similarly on the change over time this is a significant drop of 9% since 2001, however this table shows the year on year drop was smaller and hence the trend was changing which was borne out in 2006 when the figures increased In the change over time table this statistic is green showing a 65% steady decline which is not yet significant, however the % change on last year is yellow showing a bigger drop than previous years and giving an early warning that numbers have dropped more dramatically this year

Interpreting the numbers – Females There are two tables on females. The first is the actual numbers and should be interpreted in the same way as the overall numbers. The second is the % of females each year – the key points to look for in this table are trends in numbers going up or down. This must be used in conjunction with overall numbers ie if numbers are overall going up but % of females is going down the group is not necessarily losing females, rather the recruitment is bringing in more males than females % of females 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 Beavers 18% 11% 16% 12% 13% 10% 8% 4% 1% Cubs 20% 9% 6% 3% 0% Scouts 32% 25% 19% 15% 14% 5% Explorers (inc VS) 26% 31% 46% 36% 23% Network Total Youth 17% 2% Leaders 44% 47% 41% 42% 43% 48% 49% 50% 45% Other Adults 29% 28% Total Membership 27% 24% 22% % of females going up over time No of females as section leaders going up, but no of other adult females going down. Overall female membership going up.

Interpreting the numbers – Retention / Attrition Tables It’s not currently possible to track individuals on the census so to look at retention / attrition we have to look at overall numbers in each section and assume that if numbers in beavers are greater than numbers in cubs that the difference is the attrition rate from beavers to cubs. The purpose of this table is to identify any specific sections or groups losing large numbers between sections. The percentages are the attrition / loss rates between sections Retention between Sections 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 District Beavers to Cubs 35% 28% 24% 20% 23% 27% 33% 22% 41% District Cubs to Scouts -17% -18% -19% -21% -20% -24% -29% District Scouts to explorers -64% -66% -65% -69% -71% -72% -82% -83% District Explorers to network -95% -96% -98% -97% -100% Introduction of Explorer Scouting reduced attrition rates from scouts Explorer to network attrition rates slowly reducing but still high

Interpreting the numbers – Number per group This table shows the overall number in each section divided by the number of groups. This section is not applied to network so all network figures are blank The purpose is to identify if groups are getting bigger or smaller over time (both at a sectional level and also looking at numbers of leaders) Its also important to use this table in conjunction with overall numbers to identify if groups have closed or whether overall numbers are going up No per Group 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 Beavers 10 8 6 7 9 Cubs 16 13 11 12 Scouts Explorers (inc VS) 5 4 3 2 1 Network - Total Youth 40 36 31 33 28 25 27 30 Leaders Total Membership 46 42 39 32 35 Number per group has increase this year, but when looking at overall figures, one group has closed and numbers overall in all groups are up. So the increase per group is as expected – however numbers of scouts per group is down overall (and down in the table of number per group)

Interpreting the numbers – Summary Tab The summary sheet is a summary of the 2010 data, giving a summary of the numbers of greens and reds per district / group / county etc. This summary is then compared to the rest of the groups / districts / counties in the area and (in a similar way to the individual statistic RAGs) the mean, and significance levels (based on number of green statuses each group etc has) are worked out to give an overall RAG for each based on the local area. There are also graphs showing the total numbers per section in each area

Interpreting the numbers – Sectional Sheets The sectional sheets have the same tables as each area sheet however they have a waterfall graph which shows the trend and differences over time since 2001. The way to interpret is to look at the trend by block colour over time Above 0 is a positive change over time Below 0 is a negative change over time Trend over time increasing Bigger blocks show bigger changes compared to other years (if below 0 bigger decrease, if above 0 bigger increase)