Suicide & Poverty in the US Is there a relationship? Based on data collected between 1986 - 2015 Nicolette Whitfield

What is the correlation between the amount of poverty stricken families each year versus the number of deaths caused by suicide each year? Do more or less people commit suicide based on poverty levels?

How is poverty defined by the Us Census? Independent / Explanatory Number of poverty stricken families per year Data collected from US Census website. How is poverty defined by the Us Census? The Census Bureau uses a set of money income thresholds that vary by family size and composition to determine who is in poverty. If a family's total income is less than the family's threshold, then that family and every individual in it is considered in poverty. The official poverty thresholds do not vary geographically. The official poverty definition uses money income before taxes and does not include capital gains or noncash benefits (such as public housing, Medicaid, and food stamps). The Variables

Poverty Stricken Families Sample Size 30 Minimum 6400 Mean 7,805 Q1 7,098 median 7,640 q3 8,147 maximum 9,645 YEAR Families 1985 7,223 2000 6,400 1986 7,023 2001 6,813 1987 7,005 2002 7,229 1988 6,874 2003 7,607 1989 6,784 2004 7,835 1990 7,098 2005 7,657 1991 7,712 2006 7,668 1992 8,144 2007 7,623 1993 8,393 2008 8,147 1994 8,053 2009 8,792 1995 7,532 2010 9,400 1996 7,708 2011 9,497 1997 7,324 2012 9,520 1998 7,186 2013 9,645 1999 6,792 2014 9,467

The Variables Dependent / Response Number of suicides per year Data collected from Centers for Disease Control & Prevention website. How is suicide defined by the CDC? Suicide is when people direct violence at themselves with the intent to end their lives, and they die as a result of their actions. *Suicide attempts are also recorded by the CDC. However, these numbers were not included in the sample population. The Variables

Suicide Rates Sample Size 30 minimum 29,199 Mean 33,006 Q1 30,575 median 31,122 q3 34,598 maximum 42,773 YEAR Suicides 1985 29,453 2000 29,350 1986 30,904 2001 30,622 1987 30,796 2002 31,655 1988 30,407 2003 31,484 1989 30,232 2004 32,439 1990 30,906 2005 32,637 1991 30,810 2006 33,300 1992 30,484 2007 34,598 1993 31,102 2008 36,035 1994 31,142 2009 36,909 1995 31,284 2010 38,364 1996 30,903 2011 39,518 1997 30,535 2012 40,600 1998 30,575 2013 41,149 1999 29,199 2014 42,773

Data Collection Methods/Sources http://www.census.gov/data/tables/time-series/demo/income-poverty/historical-poverty-people.html United States Suicide Deaths and Rates per 100,000 All Races, Both Sexes, All Ages Produced by: National Center for Injury Prevention and Control, CDC Data Source: NCHS Vital Statistics System for numbers of deaths. Bureau of Census for population estimates. https://http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/suicide.htm Centers for Disease Control & Prevention Data Collection Methods/Sources

Scatter Plot w/o the Outliers 1993 8,393 31,102 1992 8,144 30,484 1994 8,053 31,142 Scatter Plot w/o the Outliers

the slope, the amount by which 𝑦 changes when 𝑥 increases by one unit Correlation = 0.952780723 The correlation measures the relationship of the linear relationship between the two variables. The correlation between poverty and suicide is very strong making it easier to make estimates regarding future changes. = 0.9078 is the fraction of the variation in the values of y that is explained by the least-squares regression of y on x. Slope = 4 the slope, the amount by which 𝑦 changes when 𝑥 increases by one unit

Predictions y = 3.9274x + 2755.9 If the number of poverty stricken families increased to 15,000 The number of suicides would be expected to reach 61,666. If the number of poverty stricken families decreased to 3,000 The number of suicides is expected to lower to 14,538. Even very strong correlations may not correspond to a real causal relationship (changes in x actually causing changes in y). Correlation may be explained by a lurking variable including other factors that effect poverty stricken families.