Bilanca plaćanja.

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Presentation transcript:

Bilanca plaćanja

Bilanca plaćanja (balance of payments) Skup računa (zapisa) o svim transakcijama između subjekata u toj zemlji i ostatka svijeta. Izvoz i uvoz dobara i usluga, Prihod od turizma Kamate ili dividende primljene iz inozemstva ili plaćene u inozemstvu, Kupovina i prodaja financijskih ili drugih aseta u inozemstvu Ekonomska transakcija je događaj koji može rezultirati ili potražnjom za domaćom valutom ili ponudom domaće valute na inozemnim tržištima Konvencija: Transakcija koja rezultira potražnjom za domaćom valutom na inozemnim tržištima oznacuje se sa + (donosi više strane valute) Transakcija koja rezultira ponudom domaće valute na inozemnim tržištima označuje se sa -- (smanjuje naše zalihe strane valute)

Izvor: Državni zavod za statistiku

Komponente bilance plaćanja (1) Bilanca plaćanja ima 3 komponente: 1. Tekući računi (current accounts) Sadrži svu trgovinsku razmjenu sa svijetom te rente, dividende, kamate i ostale tekuće transakcije. 1.Vidljiva razmjena Sadrži izvoz (+) i uvoz (-) dobara (ne usluga) 2. Nevidljiva razmjena Sadrži izvoz (+) i uvoz (-) usluga Zarada od investicija, transferi etc.

Komponente bilance plaćanja (2) 2. Računi kapitala Popis svih tokova isplata od prodaje ili kupovine financijskih (npr. vladine obveznice) ili stvarnih aseta (npr. zgrada za poslovni prostor) Since 1973, the two principle divisions on the BOP have been the current account and the capital account. The current account shows the net amount a country is earning if it is in surplus, or spending if it is in deficit. It is the sum of the balance of trade (net earnings on exports - payments for imports) , factor income (earnings on foreign investments - payments made to foreign investors) and cash transfers. The capital account records the net change in ownership of foreign assets. It includes the reserve account (the international operations of a nations central bank), along with loans and investments between the country and the rest of world (but not the future regular repayments / dividends that the loans and investments yield, those are earnings and will be recorded in the current account). Expressed with the standard meaning for the capital account, the BOP =current account-capital account (+ or - Balancing item)

Komponente bilance plaćanja (3) 3. Službene transakcije Središnja banka drži kod sebe zalihe stranih valuta – službene rezerve (official reserves) Država može povući nešto od tih rezervi da pokrije deficit u bilancama (funkcionira slično kao štednja za pojedince) – pojavljuje se kao (+) Kad je bilanca pozitivna, tada taj višak strane valute ide u službene rezerve – pojavljuje se kao (–) Posudba od organizacija kao MMF (+) Posudba drugim središnjim bankama (-) 4. Statistička pogreška The IMF use a particular set of definitions for the BOP, which is also used by the OECD , and the United Nations' SNA. [4] The main difference with the IMF definition is that they use the term financial account to capture transaction that in the standard definition are recorded in the capital account. The IMF do use the term capital account, to designate a sub set of transactions that according to usage common in the rest of the world form a small part of the overall capital account. [5] The IMF separate these transaction out to form an additional top level division of the BOP sheet.

Kako tečaj djeluje na uvoz i izvoz Aprecijacija domaće valute  veća potražnja za uvozom Deprecijacija domaće valute  manja potražnja za uvozom (izvoz izgleda bolje) Uvoz se smanjuje Cijena uvezenih proizvoda veća Bilanca plaćanja U kratkom roku je lošija (dok uvoz ne padne) U srednjem roku bolja (uvoz pao, izvoz izgleda bolje) Dugoročno se vraća u ravnotežu

Mjere reduciranja negativne trgovinske bilance Deprecijacija domaće valute Reduciranje agregatne potražnje (drastična mjera) Poslijedica: Manji uvoz (opća potražnja pada) Povećani izvoz (u nedostatku domaće potražnje firme se okreću inozemnom tržištu) Potpomaganje izvoznika Financijske potpore izvoznicima Pomoć pri marketingu Unaprijeđivanje infrastrukture (građenje luka, cesta) Ohrabrenja (npr. nagrade za najbolje izvoznike) Obeshrabrivanje uvoza Tarife (porezi na uvezena dobra) Kvote (ograničenja na količinu uvezenih dobara)