Corn Supply Demand Situation McDonald Pelz Global Commodities A PRESENTATION BY McDonald Pelz Global Commodities
P” Factors Population Precipitation Precipitation Peripheral Consuming Countries population possibly will increased steadily Producing Countries will see stagnate population Welcome to Asian and African Markets Indian population will overtake china around 2025 and will only slow down growing in 2045 (in normal situation)
Direction of Global Population Consuming Countries population – To increase steadily Producing Countries- Stagnated population Welcome to Asian and African Markets Indian population will overtake china around 2025 and will only slow down growing in 2045 ( in normal situation) Population in Million
We are going to cover …. In next 30 mins Source: Economist India demand is function of availability of domestic supply not the consumption potential Population pressure is increasing- demand elasticity is very high Map not true representation of Indian Geo Borders- Just rep
Weather & Production La Niña conditions are present ENSO-neutral expected during the spring Corn crop this year down by 31 MMT mostly due to unfavourable weather and exports are expected to decline by 8 MMT. Major losses from US, China, Brazil & Ukraine. La-Nina usually create more rains to south east Asia & dryness to South America.
Global Corn Supply and India
Myth Busters- India Is a Veg Pro Country ? Vegetable Protein- Animal Protein… Changing Dynamics
% Growth of meat products Source: USDA, McDonald Pelz Analysis SA + SE is fastest growing meat market in the region… It means more oilseed and feed grain demand
India’s Role in Global Corn market ‘000mt, Source: USDA India Corn exports act as hedge against US supplies fluctuations (Weather Pattern) So Buy Chicago- Sell India gives a good trading hedge to cover for short positions
Growth in Corn demand
Why Indian Grain Complex is volatile ???? ‘000mt, Source: USDA Observation on difference of Grain demand between India and china is important
Global Stocks to use Ratio 1.3 Billion People to Feed and stock ratio of 12pct just represents a month of stock in country We have witnessed Pulses, wheat, sugar supply shocks already- not geared up to absorb more India is not prepared for next drought or crop disaster
World Trade and Prices Globally Low price scenario MSP is continuously going up Corn is more of domestic grain- on Argentina and Ukraine produce to export largely Market demand is growing due expansion in meat demand
World Snd Source: USDA, All no in MMT
India Snd Source: USDA, All no in MMT
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