Harnessing a demographic dividend for equitable, sustainable and environment-friendly growth from a gender perspective Jose Miguel Guzman ICF josemiguel.guzman@icf.com Intersessional Expert Meeting on the full enjoyment of human rights by all women and girls and the systematic mainstreaming of a gender perspective into the implementation of the 2030 Agenda 2-3 May, OHCHR, Palais des Nations, Geneva

What is the demographic dividend What happens as a result of a sustained decline in fertility and the subsequent decrease of the size and weight of the young population and increase in the working age population. So the dependency ratio decrease. Provides an opportunity for smarter economic and social investments (human capital) and increased countries' output and the possibility for long-term development. The demographic dividend is not a given. It is an windows of opportunity. Requires the right policies. What happens as a result of a decline in fertility and the subsequent decrease of the size and weight of the young population and an increase in the working age population Provide a large, young and energetic workforce Generate a decrease in the dependency ratio Stabilization or even a decrease in the number of births and the number of children and young people attending school. Provides an opportunity for smarter economic and social investments and increased countries' output and the possibility for long-term development, if: Productive employment is created Human capital investments for the younger generations are implemented People, and particularly young girls, are empowered and their wellbeing is promoted The demographic dividend is not a given. It is an windows of opportunity. With preparation and the right policies, it may positively transform countries With no actionable policies, the risk of having a large number of jobless people due to a growing mass of unemployed young adults will increased

What is the demographic dividend Nigeria and Brazil presents two very different situations: Both starts at the same level, but because of declining fertility in Brazil, there is a decline on total dependency ratio that creates a demographic dividend (DD). But it is now basically over. Nigeria, on the other side will benefit for the DD provide fertility continue to decline.

What is the demographic dividend Nigeria and Brazil presents two very different situations: Both starts at the same level, but because of declining fertility in Brazil, there is a decline on total dependency ratio that creates a demographic dividend (DD). But it is now basically over. Nigeria, on the other side will benefit for the DD provide fertility continue to decline.

What is the demographic dividend The increase in the working age population. Brazil is at the maximum now, but it will start declining. Nigeria, on the coontrary is just starting.

Harnessing a Demographic Dividend The 3 E’s Framework Empowerment Education Employment Source: World Economic Forum: Harnessing The Opportunity Of The Demographic Dividend. Publication by the Global Agenda Council on the Demographic Dividend., 2015.

Labor and trade policies The 3 E’s Framework for Harnessing a Demographic Dividend Areas for intervention: some examples Empowerment (Goal 3, 5, 6,10,16) Gender equality at all levels Early marriage and childbearing Female genital cutting Violence against women and girls Health Sexual and reproductive and family planning Education: (Goal 4 ) Access and equal opportunities for education for girls and boys Access to sexual education Increased investments in education to complete coverage and increase quality Employment (Goal 8, 11) Employment/labor opportunities for young people, including contexts of rapid urban growth Labor and trade policies Empowerment (Goal 3, 5, 6,10,16) Eradicate early age of marriage and early childbearing Eradicate female genital cutting Ensure gender equality at all levels Ensure access to appropriate health Ensure universal access to sexual and reproductive health-care services and reproductive health/family planning services Education: (Goal 4 ) Access and equal opportunities for education for girls and boys Ensure access to sexual education Increase investments in education to complete coverage and increased quality Employment (Goal 8, 11) Create opportunities to ensure employment/labor opportunities for young people, including contexts of rapid urban growth Labor and trade policies Source: World Economic Forum: Harnessing The Opportunity Of The Demographic Dividend. Publication by the Global Agenda Council on the Demographic Dividend., 2015.

Harnessing the demographic dividend Policy implementation: sustainability, and gender Climate change and its consequences can undermine the conditions for harnessing a demographic dividend. Best scenario: more consumers Investing in the green economy Example of Bangladesh Fertility decline More women employment Environmental degradation Climate change and its consequences with the potential to undermine the conditions under which a demographic dividend may materialize (Bloom, 2016) Creating new employment opportunities, advance social and gender equity and eliminate poverty means more people will become consumers. It is imperative to invest in the green economy to contribute to these goals without compromising the sustainability. Bad example: The environmentally degradation component: Textiles and pollution in Bangladesh. Fertility decline and significant women's employment but desperate conditions in Dhaka and elsewhere related to pollution, flooding, climate change, urbanization, informality) 

Harnessing the demographic dividend Policy implementation: Challenges, with emphasis in poorest countries Rapid and unplanned urbanization Skilled migration In situation of crisis and conflicts: Instability in the economy: low incentives for investments affects employment creation, particularly for young people Focus in solving daily crisis: lack of long-term vision needed to generate a demographic dividend and reap the benefits of it. Disruption of school cycles: low incentives for girls/boys to attend school. Less opportunities for gender sensitive policies and increased risks for gender-based violence

Harnessing the demographic dividend Some conclusions Opportunity is coming for demographic dividend in many countries, particularly Africa. If well planned it can have positive impacts on development, sustainability and gender equality. Requires a long-term vision and a national commitment, There is no possibility of harnessing the DD without a strong on gender equality, women and girls empowerment and its synergies with the other two set of policies But it is not only about creating employment opportunities for young people; it is about quality employment that allows for growth and sustainability

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