ITS ROLE IN WEST VIRGINIA J. Michael Mullen TERTIARY EDUCATION ITS ROLE IN WEST VIRGINIA J. Michael Mullen

WHAT IS IT? OECD concept used in economic and policy analysis comparing member countries. (Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, Paris) Refers to a level of broadly defined studies, provided through established forms of higher education, but also in other ways – through new kinds of institutions, by enterprises and in other non-formal settings. 11/16/2018 HEPC

ECONOMIC & SOCIAL DEVELOPMENT Chicken or Egg Jobs or Educated Workforce US competitive advantage eroding Post-WWII education policy Productivity and technology driven Industrial nations have adopted educational policies focused on economic competition 11/16/2018 HEPC

US Economy Survey by OECD Faster medium-term growth in living standards to households than any time since the 1960s. Economic growth & welfare reform have increased employment, and reduced welfare rolls, while poverty rates have fallen. Labor productivity growth has doubled the rate seen in the previous 20 years. Improving education and health of the least advantaged is crucial to continued growth. Central has been the robust technical progress in the computer and communications industries. 11/16/2018 HEPC

Competitive Advantage Until 1985, USA had significant advantage in education levels. Advantage disappearing as industrial countries adopt more aggressive goals – 75% participation of recent graduates and focus on 25-35 cohort. Further losses since 1995 as “Rim” and “EU” competition grows. 11/16/2018 HEPC

RELATED OBSERVATIONS SB653, the Market Street Report, and the follow up Implementation Plan all identify the need for community college and technical education as critical. Significant regional variations in economic and education measures. Major adult literacy and workforce preparation issues. Projected decline in new high school grads. Education, health, and quality of life agenda stressed. 11/16/2018 HEPC

BACKGROUND Economic Indicators Population Trends Research Market Issues 11/16/2018 HEPC

Percent of U.S. Average, 1959 and 1999 Per-Capita Income Percent of U.S. Average, 1959 and 1999 Maryland Delaware Virginia Florida Georgia Texas North Carolina Tennessee South Carolina Alabama Kentucky Louisiana Oklahoma Arkansas West Virginia Mississippi 114% 108% 104% 97% 96% 94% 91% 90% 83% 81% 1959 1999 81% 80% Now, eight SREB states (out of 33 nationwide) have average per-capita incomes equal to at least 90 percent of the U.S. average — up from only three in the 1950s. 1959 difference 1999 Alabama 69% 12% 81% Arkansas 64% 14% 78% Florida 91% 6% 97% Georgia 75% 21% 96% Kentucky 73% 8% 81% Louisiana 77% 3% 80% Maryland 104% 10% 114% Delaware 126% -18% 108% Mississippi 57% 16% 73% North Carolina 72% 19% 91% Oklahoma 85% -5% 80% South Carolina 63% 20% 83% Tennessee 72% 18% 90% Texas 89% 5% 94% Virginia 85% 19% 104% West Virginia 72% 2% 74% Yet, in half of the SREB states, at least 25 percent of children live in poverty. Region wide, almost 6 million children live in poverty. $ 80% 78% 74% 73% $20,688 Source: SREB Fact Book 2001 11/16/2018 HEPC

West Virginia/U.S. Per Capita Personal Income Gap Nears 1989 High 1969 1972 1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 Source: WVU Bureau of Business and Economic Research, Economic Outlook 2001 11/16/2018 HEPC

MEDIAN FAMILY INCOME Source: Educational Opportunity 11/16/2018 HEPC

Adults with Bachelor’s Degrees, 1960 and 2000 College Education Adults with Bachelor’s Degrees, 1960 and 2000 26% United States SREB states Maryland Virginia Delaware Texas North Carolina Georgia Florida Louisiana Oklahoma Tennessee Kentucky Alabama South Carolina Mississippi Arkansas West Virginia 23% 32% 32% 24% 24% 23% 23% 23% 23% 23% 22% 21% Only two SREB states have college attainment levels above the national average. In the 1990s, college attainment in only six SREB states increased faster than the national increase of 5..3 percentage points. But things look promising for the future. While only four SREB states have high school attainment levels above the national average, 13 SREB states had higher increases in high school attainment levels than the national increase of 8.9 percentage points. 20% 1960 2000 19% 19% 19% 15% Source: SREB Fact Book 2001 11/16/2018 HEPC

Per-capita Income Rank and Adults with Bachelor’s Degrees College Education Per-capita Income Rank and Adults with Bachelor’s Degrees PCI Rank ColEd Rank Alabama 22,987 11 20 12 Arkansas 22,244 14 18 15 Delaware 30,778 2 24 3 Florida 27,780 4 23 7 Georgia 27,340 5 23 6 Kentucky 23,237 10 21 11 Louisiana 22,847 13 23 9 Maryland 32,465 1 32 1 Mississippi 20,688 16 19 14 North Carolina 26,003 7 23 5 Oklahoma 22,953 12 23 8 South Carolina 23,545 9 19 13 Tennessee 25,574 8 22 10 Texas 26,858 6 24 4 Virginia 29,789 3 32 2 West Virginia 20,966 15 15 16 Source: SREB Fact Book 2001 11/16/2018 HEPC

Total Change in Employment, 1995-1999 Grant Pocahontas Randolph Upshur Putnam Cabell Wetzel Ohio Brooke Hancock Marshall Monongalia Jackson Nicholas Lewis Doddridge Harrison Ritchie Hampshire Mineral Berkeley Boone Braxton Calhoun Clay Fayette Gilmer Greenbrier Hardy Jefferson Kanawha Lincoln Logan Marion Mason Mcdowell Mercer Mingo Monroe Morgan Pendleton Pleasants Preston Raleigh Roane Summers Taylor Tucker Tyler Wayne Webster Wirt Wood Wyoming Barbour 1,000 < 500 to -500 < -500 West Virginia = 26,872 Source: West Virginia Bureau of Employment Programs Prepared by John Clark on 6-13-01 11/16/2018 HEPC

West Virginia and U.S. Population Growth by Age Group 1990-1999 Total 0-19 20-44 45-64 65+ Age Group Source: US Census Bureau; WVU Bureau of Business and Economic Research, WV Economic Outlook 2001 11/16/2018 HEPC

Percent Population Change from 1990-2015 15- to 19-Year-Olds Hancock Brooke Ohio Marshall Wetzel Monongalia Morgan Tyler Marion Preston Berkeley Pleasants Mineral Harrison Taylor Hampshire Jefferson Doddridge Wood Ritchie Barbour Tucker Grant Wirt Lewis Hardy Gilmer Calhoun Upshur Jackson Randolph Mason Roane Braxton Pendleton Putnam Webster Clay Cabell Kanawha Pocahontas Nicholas >16% Wayne Lincoln 0-13% Boone Fayette (-0.1)-(-6.0%) Greenbrier Logan (-6.1)-(-19.9%) Mingo Raleigh (-20)-(-39.9%) Wyoming Summers Monroe <(-40%) Mercer Mcdowell Note: State average is –6.9% Source: 1990 U.S. Census; Regional Research Institute, West Virginia University 11/16/2018 HEPC

West Virginia High School Graduates Source: Knocking at the Door: Projections of High School Graduates, 1996-2012 Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education 11/16/2018 HEPC

Projected Change in 15- to 19-Year-Old Population for Selected Counties, 1990-2015 – Concord College Grant Pocahontas Randolph Upshur Putnam Cabell Wetzel Ohio Brooke Hancock Marshall Monongalia Jackson Nicholas Lewis Doddridge Harrison Ritchie Hampshire Mineral Berkeley Boone Braxton Calhoun Clay Fayette Gilmer Greenbrier Hardy Kanawha Lincoln Logan Marion Mason Mcdowell Mercer Mingo Monroe Morgan Pendleton Pleasants Preston Raleigh Roane Summers Taylor Tucker Tyler Wayne Webster Wirt Wood Wyoming Barbour 10 % < to -10 < -10% Note: 9 counties that sent 83.7% of Fall 1998 first-time, full-time freshmen. Source: State College and University Systems of West Virginia Central Office; Regional Research Institute, West Virginia University 11/16/2018 HEPC

Projected Change in 15- to 19-Year-Old Population for Selected Counties, 1990-2015 – Potomac State College of West Virginia University Grant Pocahontas Randolph Upshur Putnam Cabell Wetzel Ohio Brooke Hancock Marshall Monongalia Jackson Nicholas Lewis Doddridge Harrison Ritchie Hampshire Mineral Berkeley Boone Braxton Calhoun Clay Fayette Gilmer Greenbrier Hardy Jefferson Kanawha Lincoln Logan Marion Mason Mcdowell Mercer Mingo Monroe Morgan Pendleton Pleasants Preston Raleigh Roane Summers Taylor Tucker Tyler Wayne Webster Wirt Wood Wyoming Barbour 10 % < to -10 < -10% Note: 6 counties that sent 84.6% of Fall 1998 first-time, full-time freshmen. Source: State College and University Systems of West Virginia Central Office; Regional Research Institute, West Virginia University 11/16/2018 HEPC

Projected Change in 15- to 19-Year-Old Population for Selected Counties, 1990-2015 – Marshall University Grant Pocahontas Randolph Upshur Putnam Cabell Wetzel Ohio Brooke Hancock Marshall Monongalia Jackson Nicholas Lewis Doddridge Harrison Ritchie Hampshire Mineral Berkeley Boone Braxton Calhoun Clay Fayette Gilmer Greenbrier Hardy Jefferson Kanawha Lincoln Logan Marion Mason Mcdowell Mercer Mingo Monroe Morgan Pendleton Pleasants Preston Raleigh Roane Summers Taylor Tucker Tyler Wayne Webster Wirt Wood Wyoming Barbour 10 % < to -10 < -10% Note: 14 counties that sent 85.1% of Fall 1998 first-time, full-time freshmen. Source: State College and University Systems of West Virginia Central Office; Regional Research Institute, West Virginia University 11/16/2018 HEPC

Projected Change in 15- to 19-Year-Old Population for Selected Counties, 1990-2015 – West Virginia University Grant Pocahontas Randolph Upshur Putnam Cabell Wetzel Ohio Brooke Hancock Marshall Monongalia Jackson Nicholas Lewis Doddridge Harrison Ritchie Hampshire Mineral Berkeley Boone Braxton Calhoun Clay Fayette Gilmer Greenbrier Hardy Jefferson Kanawha Lincoln Logan Marion Mason Mcdowell Mercer Mingo Monroe Morgan Pendleton Pleasants Preston Raleigh Roane Summers Taylor Tucker Tyler Wayne Webster Wirt Wood Wyoming Barbour 10 % < to -10 < -10% Note: 25 counties that sent 85.0% of Fall 1998 first-time, full-time freshmen. Source: State College and University Systems of West Virginia Central Office; Regional Research Institute, West Virginia University 11/16/2018 HEPC

PIPELINE PROBLEM 20 -- 9th grade students 15 -- high school graduates 8 -- enroll in college in/out-of-state 3 -- BA graduates Source: HEPC Data Files 11/16/2018 HEPC

FACTORS IN PIPELINE High school graduation rates High school curriculum Remediation 40% of all freshmen and 50% of students enroll in remedial courses if WVU is excluded. Math is the major issue. Out-migration and out-of-state students Adult market is critical to workforce development 11/16/2018 HEPC

Total R&D Expenditures per Capita 1999 Note: Doctoral Granting Institutions Only Source: 1999 WebCASPAR, 2000 U.S. Census 11/16/2018 HEPC

MARKETPLACE Business courses Business Programs Nursing 40 Accounting 56 Economics 39 Finance Business Programs 5 associate 3 BBA completion 8 MBA (Auburn, U of Maryland) Nursing 4 BSN, 1 MSN (Alabama), and 1 DSN (Tennessee) SREB Electronic Campus Fall, 2001 11/16/2018 HEPC

Tuition as a Proportion of Personal Disposable Income per Capita – West Virginia vs. U.S. Average National Average Source: Research Associates of Washington 11/16/2018 HEPC

SUSTAINING ASSETS 11/16/2018 HEPC

PRINCIPLES FOR COMPACT Focus on the needs of the state – not the needs of institutions Focus on students/clients - not on providers Emphasize aggressive strategies for change Emphasize doing better at lower cost per unit Develop both the capacity of WV institutions and draw on the best of out-of-state programs Emphasize accountability 11/16/2018 HEPC

WHERE DO WE GO FROM HERE? Preparation for tertiary education Participation in tertiary education Affordability Completion Competitive Workforce Research agenda Focus, efficiency, and alignment 11/16/2018 HEPC

ITS ROLE IN WEST VIRGINIA J. Michael Mullen TERTIARY EDUCATION ITS ROLE IN WEST VIRGINIA J. Michael Mullen