Determinants of Residential Heating System Choice: An Analysis of Irish Households ESRI-UCC-MaREI Energy Research Workshop: National Energy & Climate Policy.

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Determinants of Residential Heating System Choice: An Analysis of Irish Households ESRI-UCC-MaREI Energy Research Workshop: National Energy & Climate Policy 17 May 2018 John Curtis Daire McCoy Claudia Aravena @ESRIDublin #ESRIevents #ESRIpublications www.esri.ie

Research Funding PC3 Gas Innovation Fund Grant No. 12/RC/2302 Energy Policy Research Centre (EPRC) ESRC Centre for Climate Change Economics and Policy Grant No. ES/K006576/1 11/16/2018

Residential Heating System Upgrades “Residential Heating System Upgrades: the role of knowledge, socio-demographics, building attributes and energy infrastructure” John Curtis, Daire McCoy, Claudia Aravena Forthcoming in Energy Policy (2018) 11/16/2018

Context & Motivation Transition to low carbon economy 40% EU final energy in buildings 17% EU GHG emissions residential 81% space & water heating Ireland: 10% emissions, 15% excl. Agric. 51% domestic IE heating not-networked What drives heating system upgrades? What drives fuel switching? 11/16/2018

SEAI: Unlocking Energy Efficiency Opportunity 11/16/2018

Questions Data: National Survey of Households Who contemplates heating system upgrades? If upgrading, what do they choose? Why? (incl. fuel switching, to what extent) Systematic differences by home-owners e.g. socio-demographics, “pro-environmental” Can we identify factors for policy levers? Data: National Survey of Households 11/16/2018

Contemplating heating upgrade? Compare across 3 outcomes – in past 10 yrs Not considered Considered, not upgraded Upgraded Predisposed to upgrade but don’t: mortgage holders, Uni Ed, 35+, not employed 2x more likely upgrade if aware/proximate to gas network compared ‘considered, not upgraded’ “Non findings”: dwelling attributes, socio-demo, energy knowledge or ‘pro environment behaviours’ 11/16/2018

If upgrading, upgrade choice? 3 fuel types: Not networked Gas+ Electricity+ Key dwelling attribute: Aware/proximity gas. Gas+ 59% points more likely Some socio-d traits important – working status, mortgage holder No overall trend on knowledge/pro-environmental behaviours 11/16/2018

Upgrade decisions Home-owners All households upgraded heating 'Not Considered' 77% 66% - 'Considered, Not upgraded' 8% 12% 'Upgraded' 15% 23% 100% 'Not-networked' 51% 57% 47% 'Gas+' 35% 34% 42% 'Electricity+' 14% 10% 11% N= 1506 991 229 11/16/2018

Fuel switching patterns Previous fuel Coal Electricity Heat Pump LPG Gas Oil Peat Wood Total 5 1 7 12 2 28 8 4 15 Heat pump 3 Natural Gas 58 65 27 46 6 97 9 Of 28 people previously using coal, 5 still use coal in upgraded system, 7 switched to gas 12 switched to oil, etc. 11/16/2018

Replacing heating system Reason for changing Agree Disagree System broke 33% 56% Not working well 59% 30% Carbon emissions 45% 29% Fuel Costs 69% 17% Received government grant 19% 71% 11/16/2018

Replacement: info source Information source for heating replacement Percent My own research 37% Recommendation of plumber / trades person 33% Recommendation of friend/neighbour/relative 15% Recommendation of energy consultant 7% Recommendation of energy company (obligated party) 6% Other (please specify) 1% 11/16/2018

Reasons for not upgrading Reason for keeping current system Percent I don't think a replacement will be any better 44% I would like to but it is too expensive 24% I'm planning on replacing it in the future 10% It doesn’t need to be changed 8% It's not something I think about very often Other (please specify) 4% Replacement is too disruptive 3% 11/16/2018

Key points Home-owners making decisions with incomplete information Path dependency/technology lock-in are powerful forces facing low carbon transition Home-owners knowledge or actions on energy/environment are not critical drivers Appealing to do the ‘right thing’ won’t get far Gas infrastructure important driver Future biogas network obviates need to convert multitudes 11/16/2018