Assistant Professor/Grain Markets Specialist Adaptive Strategies for Maximizing Profit While Reducing the Impact of Climate-Related Risks AAEA Meetings Seattle, WA August 13, 2012 Chad Hart Assistant Professor/Grain Markets Specialist chart@iastate.edu 515-294-9911 1 1

Useful to Usable (U2U) Project Overall Goal: To improve the usability of climate information for the agricultural community and lead to more sustainable farming operations 3 Major Objectives: Research biophysical, climatic, and economic risks on crop production and farm profitability Evaluate and assess information needs and methods for agricultural producers Create decision support tools that address agronomic, climatic, and economic issues for agricultural producers

U2U Team

https://drinet.hubzero.org/u2utools Current Resources https://drinet.hubzero.org/u2utools

Current Resources

1st Year Goals Identify impacts of climate and management decisions on crop production and profitability Utilize several crop simulation models to create a database on crop-climate interaction Historical data: 1980-2010 Broad coverage across the Corn Belt Data links climate, soil conditions, and crop productivity

Decisions Targeted Crop rotation choice Seed purchases and seeding rates Fertilizer purchases and timing Pesticide purchases and timing Crop insurance selection Fuel purchases for irrigation or drying Cover crop usage Tillage timing

Information Currently Used %

Decisions That Could Be Affected %

Crop Modeling 3 crop simulation models Use models to examine: Hybrid-Maize Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) and CERES-Maize Integrated Science Assessment Model (ISAM) Use models to examine: Yield variability and the influence of climate and soils on it Early planting season moisture patterns and fieldwork opportunities Timing of fertilizer applications and leaching potential

Target: Decision Support Tool Example: Tool for fertilizer application Producer inputs farm location and fertilizer type Tool draws on data, based on producer inputs, to address: Climate projections Expected field days Yield projections and patterns Market information and projections Output presents possible production and profit results with uncertainty measures

Here’s the team! http://www.AgClimate4U.org Purdue University: Linda Prokopy (Lead), Corinne Alexander, Larry Biehl, Otto Doering, Bruce Erickson, Ani Elias, Sajeeve E.M., Patrick Freeland, Ben Gramig, Olivia Kellner, Xing Liu, Amber Mase, Dev Niyogi, Paul Preckel, Carol Song, Melissa Widhalm, Lan Zhao Iowa State University: Roger Elmore, Chad Hart, Jean McGuire, Lois Wright Morton, Gene Takle, Adam Wilke Michigan State University: Gopal Alagarswamy, Jeff Andresen, Jim Hilker, Mike Holp South Dakota State University: Dennis Todey University of Illinois: Jim Angel, Beth Hall, Steve Hilberg, Atul Jain University of Michigan: Yun-Jia Lo, Maria Lemos, Jennifer Perron University of Minnesota: Tom Bartholomay, Whitney Meridith University of Missouri: Pat Guinan, Ray Massey University of Nebraska-Lincoln: Juliana Dai, Tonya Haigh, Cody Knutson, Tapan Pathak, Martha Shulski University of Wisconsin: Tom Blewett, Rebecca Power, John Kriva http://www.AgClimate4U.org This project is supported by Agriculture and Food Research Initiative Competitive Grant no. 2011-68002-30220 from the USDA National Institute of Food and Agriculture.

Thank you for your time.