Vulnerability and Adaptation in Agriculture: the Thai’s Experiences The study Approach Results Lessons learned and Potential improvement Implication

Yields (controlled climate) Approach Controlled climate GHG 1% climate Crop growth models Yields (controlled climate) Yields (GHG 1% climate) Difference in yields

Climate Scenarios Using the simulation of the GCMs Various GCMs Transient (CO2 increases 1% per year) Various GCMs CCCMA ECHAM CSIRO HADLEY

From Global to Local Direct Interpolation Use 30 years monthly average to reduce short term climate variation 1990s(1960-89) 2020s(2010-2039) 2050s (2040-2069) 2080s(2070-2099) Develop daily climate scenarios for specific locations

Crops: Models and Areas Crop models CERES MAIZE, CERES RICE Crops and areas Fragrant Rice in two provinces Maize in two provinces

Scenarios Four climate inputs from different GCMs Two crops x two areas With and without fertilizer With and without C effects on crop Four intervals ( 1990s, 2020s, 2050s and 2080s)

Some Results

Maize, Nakhonsawan, no fertilizer

Maize, Nakhonrachasima, no fertilizer

Rice, Roi-et, no fertilizer

Rice, Surin, no fertilizer

Major observations Results from different GCMs vary quite a lot Yields tend to drop overtime Yields of maize are not much different between the two provinces, the reverse is true for rice There are some positive carbon effects on yield

Lessons learned High uncertainty of climate models Crop models need to be improved Impacts could vary substantially between areas Vulnerability analysis is not sufficient to be used for adaptation study Local climate data are limited

How to improve Reduce uncertainty of climate models develop regional or sub-regional models improve downscaling methods Improve crop growth models Cover the areas and crops adequately Develop other approaches

Implications Research and development on vulnerability is urgently needed Soft technology transfer Indigenous capacity building Sub-regional network is important to facilitate the technology development and capacity building A need for strong participation in international research and development on vulnerability Existing mechanisms make vulnerability and adaptation relatively much behind others