MSc. Project management RANEPA MOSCOW October 2017 PROFESSOR ROBIN MATTHEWS KINGSTON UNIVERSITY BUSINESS SCHOOL LONDON RANEPA MOSCOW MOSI YOSHKAR-OLA ECONOMIC STRATEGIES PRESIDENT OF THE LEAGUE OF CORPORATE STRATEGY AND ACCOUNTING http/www.robindcmatthews.com http://www.tcib.org.uk/about.html http://kpp-russia.ru 17/11/2018 03:20:59 ROBINDCMATTHEWS

ORGANIZATIONS ARE (COLLECTIONS OF) NETWORKS OF PROJECTS 17/11/2018 03:20:59 ROBINDCMATTHEWS

(current system state) T Past Future upside System state possible futures possible causes probable futures Probable causes possible causes possible futures FUTURE SCENARIOS Now (current system state) T downside PATH DEPENDENCE 17/11/2018 03:20:59 ROBINDCMATTHEWS

FUTURE SCENARIOS (outer dynamics) an example 17/11/2018 03:20:59 ROBINDCMATTHEWS

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Complex adaptive systems can self organise spontaneously 1. continuous and dynamic interaction within and between levels of hierarchy 2. Non-linear interactions that are unpredictable; the scale of effects can’t be predicted for example. 3. Positive and negative feedbacks. 4. Large numbers of elements 5 open and closed systems 6. Co-evolution. 7. Unpredictable patterns emerge which become attractors influence future directions. 8. Attractors may be orderly or chaotic. 9. Far from equilibrium. 10. No single entity has complete knowledge of the system. 11. Path dependence. 12. adaptation through learning imagination. 13. Unpredictable time lags 17/11/2018 03:20:59 ROBINDCMATTHEWS

Rich pictures Represent structures, processes & organisational issues relevant to the problem/issue. What are the key issues what problem to address represent and communicate Provide a way of thinking creatively; using emotion instinct and intuition and the intellect. Attempt to use your artistic faculties. Knowledge by presence rather than knowledge by correspondence. Become aware of your mindsets;your habits of looking /thinking/ and decide Antenarratives: before responses become habitual. 2. Problem situation not the problem itself 17/11/2018 03:20:59 ROBINDCMATTHEWS

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META MODEL PAYOFFS Meta Model Mandala INNER DYNAMICS DYNAMICS GRAMMAR OUTER DYNAMICSOUTER DYNAMICS Meta Model Mandala 17/11/2018 03:20:59 ROBINDCMATTHEWS

Assumption of definite goals & solutions Hard problems Problems well defined Assumption of definite goals & solutions Can pre-define success criteria Technically/operationally oriented Soft problems Difficult to define - they are problem situations High social, political & human activity component Wicked 17/11/2018 03:20:59 ROBINDCMATTHEWS

Checkland’s Soft Systems Methodology Premise reality is socially constructed, therefore requirements are not objective systems thinking is not reductionist Rationale Problem/issues are fuzzy, unstructured often without solutions defining the objective is part of the problem Example Integrated computerisation in the NHS largely failed. Why? 17/11/2018 03:20:59 ROBINDCMATTHEWS

Stage 1: Problem situation unstructured Checkland’s Soft Systems Methodology Stage 1: Problem situation unstructured Stage 2: Problem situation expressed (rich pictures) Stage 3: Naming of relevant systems (root definitions; CATWOE) Stage 4: Conceptual models Stage 5: Comparing conceptual models with reality Stage 6: Debating feasible & desirable changes Stage 7: Implementing changes 17/11/2018 03:20:59 ROBINDCMATTHEWS

organization grammar conceptual Action 17/11/2018 03:20:59 ROBINDCMATTHEWS

RISK GRAMMAR SSM AND THE ENNEAGRAM MANDALA SSM AND THE ENNEAGRAM OUTER DYNAMICS 9 GRAMMAR Evaluation, 8 reflection 1 vision, intention SSM AND THE ENNEAGRAM MANDALA Stage 5: Comparing conceptual models with reality Stage 6: Debating feasible & desirable changes Stage 7: Implementing changes SSM AND THE ENNEAGRAM MANDALA Stage 1: Problem situation unstructured Stage 2: Problem situation expressed (rich pictures) Stage 3: Naming of relevant systems (root definitions; CATWOE) Stage 4: Conceptual models ADAPTATION implementation 7 2 values REALISATION SEARCH PAYOFFS 6 3 CAPABILITIES choice commitment 5 4 alternative scenarios GRAMMAR RISK GRAMMAR 17/11/2018 03:20:59 ROBINDCMATTHEWS

Global situation Postwar recovery 1945 – 70 Stagflation 1970 -1980 Keynesian policies Stagflation 1970 -1980 Monetarism and supply side economics 1980 – 2007 2008- 2017 17/11/2018 03:20:59 ROBINDCMATTHEWS

GLOBAL POSITIVE FEEDBACKS FINANCIAL REVOLUTION Flexible exchange rates Deregulation New asset pricing models TECHNOLOGICAL Investment funds Shorter product cycles Pressure to reduce costs Outsourcing GLOBAL DEMAND FDI Consumption Investment Asset prices Sovereign wealth funds Securitization GLOBAL POSITIVE FEEDBACKS 1980 – 2006 (circa) 17/11/2018 03:21:00 ROBINDCMATTHEWS

ENTROPY AND EVOLUTION EVOLUTION/EMERGENCE 17/11/2018 03:21:00 ROBINDCMATTHEWS

The global economy as a complex adaptive system   The direction of the economy emerges from the interaction of many dispersed and interdependent units (firms, institutions, people, demographics, urbanization, cultures, religions, ethnicities personalities and so on) in parallel. The action of any one unit depends on the state and action of others units. The global economy has many levels of interaction; coalitions at many levels ranging from teams to business units and mergers. Tangled interactions (associations, communications) occur within and between levels. Coalitions are building blocks. They are recombined and revised continually as the system accumulates experience and adapts. There are many niches created by new technologies that can be exploited by adaptation. Thus large and small local and global firms coexist and coevolve on the global economy; glocalisation. There is no universal super-competitor, such as the USA or China or massive corporation or institution that can fill all niches; often they are helpless, global terrorism for example. There are so many niches serving many purposes and needs the system operates far from equilibrium or optimum. Despite the talk about progress and world growth recent developments have seen a resurgence of real politique; struggle for resources, struggle for dominance 17/11/2018 03:21:00 ROBINDCMATTHEWS