Defense Intelligence & Infectious Disease Modeling Interest and Need

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Presentation transcript:

Defense Intelligence & Infectious Disease Modeling Interest and Need James T. Kvach, Ph.D. Defense Intelligence Agency Armed Forces Medical Intelligence Center Ft. Detrick, Maryland

Why the Interest & Need? Operational Policy Acquisition Force health protection Policy Crisis management Acquisition Forecasts

Disease Risks -- Recurring Impact U.S. ARMY HOSPITAL ADMISSIONS DURING WAR Responsible for 2 of 3 U.S. Wartime Hospital Admissions

New Roles and Missions MISSION REGIONAL WARFIGHTING COUNTERDRUG OPERATIONS PEACEKEEPING HUMANITARIAN INTENSITY OF CONFLICT PROBABILITY DEPLOYMENT FREQUENCY BATTLE CASUALTIES DNBI * MODERATE LOW HIGH NONE MISSION *WITHOUT PREVENTIVE MEDICINE COUNTERMEASURES

Civilian Health Care Status

Nation Building/Failure Civilian Health Care & Nation Building/Failure How to advise? Where can you make a difference?

Evolving Defense Strategy Health Protection Implications Unfamiliar/Hostile Environments Infectious Disease & Environmental Risks Multinational Task Force Alignments Medical Support Capabilities Disease Prevalence Reduced Military Health Services Footprint Reliance on Host Nation Support Food and Water Medical Care/Support and Pharmaceuticals Short- and Long-Term Health and Liability Concerns

Modeling Focus Disease spread Conditions for outbreaks National Regional International Conditions for outbreaks Disease control nodes

Defense Intelligence View Behavior Infectious Disease Individual Militarily Relevant Group Humanitarian Societal Economic

Ideal Model Country/disease neutral Real time data Predictive Tailorable Real time data Predictive Control nodes Crisis management/analytical tool National, regional, international capable