Holger Mahlke, Ulrich Corsmeier, Christoph Kottmeier

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Presentation transcript:

Holger Mahlke, Ulrich Corsmeier, Christoph Kottmeier Driving Processes for Convection Initiation over Complex Terrain: COPS Observations of July 20, 2007, and Respective COSMO-DE Simulations. Holger Mahlke, Ulrich Corsmeier, Christoph Kottmeier

Holger Mahlke, Ulrich Corsmeier, Christoph Kottmeier Driving Processes for Convection Initiation over Complex Terrain: COPS Observations of July 20, 2007, and Respective COSMO-DE Simulations. Holger Mahlke, Ulrich Corsmeier, Christoph Kottmeier With thanks to: Christian Barthlott, Jan Handwerker, Heike Konow, Norbert Kalthoff, Stephen Mobbs, Bernhard Mühr, and the “dropup” teams.

Scientific Problem: COPS overview paper: „The relative importance of forcing mechanisms leading to convection initiation (CI) is neither well understood nor adequately reproduced by weather forecast models.“ Case Study of July, 20, 2007 (IOP 9c): Interaction of convection initiating processes on different scales and respective simulations with the COSMO-DE model (DWD) 17.11.2018 Holger Mahlke – Institut für Meteorologie und Klimaforschung: Case Study of 20.07.2007

Large Scale Midtropospheric trough over Western Europe and a surface low over eastern France 12:00 UTC GFS model, 06:00 UTC 17.11.2018 Holger Mahlke – Institut für Meteorologie und Klimaforschung: Case Study of 20.07.2007

A weak cold front was passing the COPS area during the morning Large Scale A weak cold front was passing the COPS area during the morning 12:00 UTC GFS model, 06:00 UTC 17.11.2018 Holger Mahlke – Institut für Meteorologie und Klimaforschung: Case Study of 20.07.2007

Mesoscale convective system (MCS) A MCS was triggered over eastern France 07:30 UTC 17.11.2018 Holger Mahlke – Institut für Meteorologie und Klimaforschung: Case Study of 20.07.2007

Mesoscale convective system (MCS) A MCS was triggered over eastern France The MCS dissipated over the Rhine valley due to slight subsidence decreased solar insolation (nighttime fog + cloudiness of the MCS) advection of warm air in a lower level during the morning high values of CIN 10:00 UTC 17.11.2018 Holger Mahlke – Institut für Meteorologie und Klimaforschung: Case Study of 20.07.2007

Observations Gust front of the MCS passing the Rhine valley and the Black Forest 10:00 UTC wind vectors and temperature (colour coded) Ground station at Hornisgrinde Mountain 17.11.2018 Holger Mahlke – Institut für Meteorologie und Klimaforschung: Case Study of 20.07.2007

Observations Gust front of the MCS passing the Rhine valley and the Black Forest Station UTC CAPE [J/kg] CIN Calw-Hirsau 10:04 1099 13 Stuttgart 12:00 1212 130 10:00 UTC wind vectors and temperature (colour coded) 17.11.2018 Holger Mahlke – Institut für Meteorologie und Klimaforschung: Case Study of 20.07.2007

Observations Initiation of deep convection over the northern Black Forest Driving processes: gust front and orographic effects 10:05 UTC 17.11.2018 Holger Mahlke – Institut für Meteorologie und Klimaforschung: Case Study of 20.07.2007

a squall line over west Germany and the Benelux countries Observations In the east: thermally driven convergence line severe convective systems a squall line over west Germany and the Benelux countries 11:25 UTC 17.11.2018 Holger Mahlke – Institut für Meteorologie und Klimaforschung: Case Study of 20.07.2007

Model simulations (COSMO-DE 2.8 km, Init: 0 UTC). no deep convection over the Black Forest and in the east 10:00 UTC precipitation 11:30 UTC precipitation 17.11.2018 Holger Mahlke – Institut für Meteorologie und Klimaforschung: Case Study of 20.07.2007

CAPE: band-like structure where in reality CI occurred Model simulations CAPE: band-like structure where in reality CI occurred 10:00 UTC CAPE (ML) 10:00 UTC spec. humidity (ML) 17.11.2018 Holger Mahlke – Institut für Meteorologie und Klimaforschung: Case Study of 20.07.2007

wind vectors (10 m above ground) and precipitation Model simulations wind vectors (10 m above ground) and precipitation 09:00 UTC 10:00 UTC 17.11.2018 Holger Mahlke – Institut für Meteorologie und Klimaforschung: Case Study of 20.07.2007

Comparison: Measurement (left) and model results (right) Hornisgrinde Mountain Hornisgrinde Mountain 17.11.2018 Holger Mahlke – Institut für Meteorologie und Klimaforschung: Case Study of 20.07.2007

West to east cross section at latitude of Hornisgrinde mountain Model simulations West to east cross section at latitude of Hornisgrinde mountain Vertical winds 10:00 UTC specific humidity 10:00 UTC 17.11.2018 Holger Mahlke – Institut für Meteorologie und Klimaforschung: Case Study of 20.07.2007

Summary COPS IOP 9c – a case with interaction of multiple scale processes Gust front resulting from the MCS and interaction with orography decisive process for convection initiation over the Black Forest Comparison between COSMO-DE model and observations: Large scale features of the development reasonably well predicted gust front, convergence line poorly simulated CAPE and moisture convergence simulated roughly at the right location But model did not capture the initiation of deep convection and subsequent precipitation over the Black Forest and in the east model simulations did not represent the sub synoptic scale processes adequately that drove the deep convection during this case 17.11.2018 Holger Mahlke – Institut für Meteorologie und Klimaforschung: Case Study of 20.07.2007

Thank you for your attention! 17.11.2018 Holger Mahlke – Institut für Meteorologie und Klimaforschung: Case Study of 20.07.2007

Thank you for your attention! 17.11.2018 Holger Mahlke – Institut für Meteorologie und Klimaforschung: Case Study of 20.07.2007

Thank you for your attention! 17.11.2018 Holger Mahlke – Institut für Meteorologie und Klimaforschung: Case Study of 20.07.2007

Thank you for your attention! 17.11.2018 Holger Mahlke – Institut für Meteorologie und Klimaforschung: Case Study of 20.07.2007

17.11.2018 Holger Mahlke – Institut für Meteorologie und Klimaforschung: Case Study of 20.07.2007

Comparison: Measurement (black) and model results (red) Hornisgrinde Mountain 17.11.2018 Holger Mahlke – Institut für Meteorologie und Klimaforschung: Case Study of 20.07.2007

West to east cross section at latitude of Hornisgrinde mountain Simulations West to east cross section at latitude of Hornisgrinde mountain 11:00 UTC 11:00 UTC 17.11.2018 Holger Mahlke – Institut für Meteorologie und Klimaforschung: Case Study of 20.07.2007