The World Bank Group & Knowledge Supply for Climate Change Adaptation Regional Consultation Meeting on the Development of the LAC Regional Climate Change Adaptation Network October 29-30, 2009 David N. Sislen

Agenda The WBG & Climate Change Case Studies The Adaptation Agenda Going Forward

What is the World Bank Group doing on Climate Change? Principles of involvement Strategic Framework for Development and Climate Change (SFDCC) Major analytic work and key findings: WDR, Economics of Adaptation Various types of financing already provided Number of new mechanisms recently launched under the SFDCC Substantial focus in LCR

Key Principles of Involvement of WBG work on Climate Change WBG adheres to UNFCCC principles, policies and directions and supports decisions of UNFCCC process WBG is working to reform its governance to be more balanced, equitable and suitable for the development trends and challenges of the 21st century WBG supports clients’ adaptation and mitigation efforts in country-led programs to mobilize finance, deploy new technology, and develop policy, knowledge and capacity WBG respects primacy of UNFCCC process and will support any CF governance model that emerges from negotiations in Copenhagen and thereafter

WBG Strategic Framework for Development and Climate Change Key Principles and Actions: Objective: support sustainable development and poverty reduction and facilitate global action and interactions among all countries in partnerships guided by UNFCCC process Ensure a country-led, country-driven approach tailored to specific needs of diverse clients Mobilize additional concessional & innovative finance Facilitate development of market-based financing mechanisms and leverage private sector resources Support accelerated development and deployment of new technologies

Policy Research and Analysis Bankwide WDR 2010 on Development and Climate Change Economics of Adaptation to Climate Change: global adaptation costs with case studies in seven countries Regional studies: LCR report on Low Carbon High Growth; adaptation in ECA countries; climate risks and food security (Bangladesh); climate change economics program in SSA, etc. Low-carbon growth country studies completed for Mexico; final review stage for Brazil and India; on-going for China, Indonesia, South Africa, Poland; growing demand from other countries Major Adaptation Reports on ecosystem-based approaches to adaptation Social Dimensions of Climate Change Analytical Work in Progress: Transport and CC; Managing Terrestrial Carbon; 10 Years Experience with Carbon Market; Climate Finance & ODA; GHG Analysis - Testing Methodologies for Energy, Transport, & Forestry

WDR - Climate Change as a Development Challenge Meeting the challenge is not a choice between growth and climate change A climate smart world is within reach if we act now, act together and act differently… … building on new finance, technology and capacity at scale

Financing for Climate Change Development policy loans: Brazil (Sustainable Environmental Management DPL ), India (Himachal Pradesh DPL), Mexico (First dedicated climate change DPL) Climate investment funds: Clean technology Fund (CTF), Strategic Climate Fund (SCF) Pilot Program for Climate Resilience (PPCR): First operational program under the Strategic Climate Fund, grants and IDA-like resources Carbon market: Carbon partnership Facility (CPF), Forest carbon Partnership Facility (FCPF) Capital markets: weather-based crop insurance (CCRIF, LCR pioneering) Future—new financial instrument

Agenda The WBG & Climate Change Case Studies The Adaptation Agenda Going Forward

Central America Probabilistic Risk Assessment (CAPRA) What is CAPRA? CAPRA is an ongoing initiative to develop and enhance a set of GIS-based tools to understand, communicate and support decisions related to disaster risk at the local, national and regional levels in Central America. Primary Products: Compendium of hazard and risk maps: Printed Atlas CAPRA Geo Node: Online data and maps Hazard and risk reports: Country Risk profiles, Indicators of Risk and Risk management Software to evaluate risk: Hazard models, vulnerability and risk visualization Training courses & materials Series of user-friendly applications: hazard assessment report for territorial planning; cost-benefit application for analysis of retrofitting projects; calculator of technical premiums for insurance

Disaster Impact Analysis –Scenario or Stochastic— Probabilistic Risk Modeling Hazard (i.e. wind) Exposure (i.e. houses) Vulnerability (of house to wind) Risk (i.e probable loss) Disaster Impact Analysis –Scenario or Stochastic— Infrastructure Economic Social Environmental

GROUND SHAKING / LIQUEFACTION Multiple Natural Hazards EARTHQUAKE HURRICANE INTENSE RAIN VOLCANO TSUNAMI GROUND SHAKING / LIQUEFACTION LANDSLIDES - GROUND SHAKING - HURRICANE RAINFALL - OTHER RAINFALL STRONG WINDS STORM SURGE HURRICANE RAINFALL FLOODS ASH FALLS BALLISTIC EJECTIONS PYROCLASTIC FLOWS LAVA FLOWS

CAPRA: San Juan del Sur, Nicaragua

Mass Collaboration Changes Everything— (CAPRA) We are infusing this open architecture at all levels of CAPRA User community level Software architecture level Data level ....to ultimately improve Disaster Risk management “To harness the collective work of thousands of contributors, creating a ‘living instrument’ ” World Wind

Mexico’s Comprehensive Approach to Climate Change Adaptation Strategic Framework: MOU with SEMARNAT that lays out a long-term support to the government, including the subnational CC and social agenda, Subnational Climate Action and Sustainability plans supported by WBG 2. Mayor Analytical Work: Economics of Adaptation Study, Social Impacts of Climate Change Study 3. Various Types of Financing: Climate Change DPL (2008), Adaptation in the Gulf of Mexico Project, Adaptation in Agriculture in the State of Sonora Project, upcoming work in the Municipality of Chetumal on Climate Change and Sustainability at the Municipal level, CTF

Mexico’s Comprehensive Approach to Climate Change Adaptation Strategic Framework: MOU with SEMARNAT that lays out a long-term support to the government, including the subnational CC and social agenda, Subnational Climate Action and Sustainability plans supported by WBG 2. Mayor Analytical Work: Economics of Adaptation Study, Social Impacts of Climate Change Study, MEDEC 3. Various Types of Financing: Climate Change DPL (2008), Adaptation in the Gulf of Mexico Project, Adaptation in Agriculture in the State of Sonora Project, upcoming work in the Municipality of Chetumal on Climate Change and Sustainability at the Municipal level, CTF

Agenda The WBG & Climate Change Case Studies The Adaptation Agenda Going Forward

The Adaptation Agenda Going Forward Massive resource needs: WDR estimate US$ 75-100 billion / year Mainstreaming the adaptation agenda in sector development policies Avoiding white elephants and gold plating Critical ecosystems and the “human” aspects (urban, water, agriculture, disaster management, etc.)

Thank You David N. Sislen Sector Leader, Colombia dsislen@worldbank.org Gustavo Saltiel Sector Leader, Mexico gsaltiel@worldbank.org