Corn and Soybean Price Outlook Dec. 20, 2013 Chad Hart Associate Professor/Crop Markets Specialist chart@iastate.edu 515-294-9911 1 1

U.S. Corn Supply and Use 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Area Planted (mil. acres) 86.4 88.2 91.9 97.2 95.3 Yield (bu./acre) 164.7 152.8 147.2 123.4 160.4 Production (mil. bu.) 13,092 12,447 12,360 10,780 13,989 Beg. Stocks 1,673 1,708 1,128 989 824 Imports 8 28 29 162 30 Total Supply 14,774 14,182 13,517 11,932 14,842 Feed & Residual 5,125 4,795 4,557 4,333 5,200 Ethanol 4,591 5,019 5,000 4,648 4,950 Food, Seed, & Other 1,370 1,407 1,428 1,396 1,450 Exports 1,980 1,834 1,543 731 Total Use 13,066 13,055 12,528 11,108 13,050 Ending Stocks 1,792 Season-Average Price ($/bu.) 3.55 5.18 6.22 6.89 4.40 Source: USDA-WAOB 2 2

U.S. Soybean Supply and Use 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Area Planted (mil. acres) 77.5 77.4 75.0 77.2 76.5 Yield (bu./acre) 44.0 43.5 41.9 39.8 43.0 Production (mil. bu.) 3,359 3,329 3,094 3,034 3,258 Beg. Stocks 138 151 215 169 141 Imports 15 14 16 36 25 Total Supply 3,512 3,495 3,325 3,239 3,423 Crush 1,752 1,648 1,703 1,689 1,690 Seed & Residual 110 130 88 90 109 Exports 1,499 1,501 1,365 1,320 1,475 Total Use 3,361 3,280 3,155 3,098 3,274 Ending Stocks 150 Season-Average Price ($/bu.) 9.59 11.30 12.50 14.40 Source: USDA-WAOB 3 3

World Corn Production Source: USDA-WAOB 4 4

World Soybean Production Source: USDA-WAOB 5 5

U.S. Meat Production & Prices Source: USDA-WAOB 6 6

Corn Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS

Soy Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS

Corn Grind for Ethanol

Current Corn Futures 4.30 4.22 4.13 Source: CME Group, 12/19/2013

Current Soybean Futures 12.45 11.02 10.83 Source: CME Group, 12/19/2013

Crop Shifts Source: USDA-NASS

Thoughts for 2014 and Beyond Supply/demand concerns Corn demand rebounding? Yes, so far, so good Acreage allocation for 2014: Where do the extra corn acres go? Markets favoring soybeans in the short term and corn longer term 2012/13 USDA 2013/14 USDA 2013/14 Futures (12/19/13) Corn $6.89 $4.40 $4.13 Soybeans $14.40 $12.50 $12.45