WHY SOUTH AFRICAN CITIES ARE DIFFERENT WHY SOUTH AFRICAN CITIES ARE DIFFERENT? Comparing rea vaya with its latin American siblings Thank NT, SECO and CoJ Pleasure to be here presenting some of our knowledge work Work to better understand how does BRT work in the SA context We will provide unequivocal evidence of how BRT, as implemented, will not cover its operational costs and some recommendations for SA cities This experience is of critical importance since Joburg and other cities are rolling out BRT systems Ramon Munoz-Raskin Senior Urban Transport Specialist Southern African Transport Conference 12 July 2017

INTEGRATED RAPID PUBLIC TRANSPORT NETWORK PROGRAMS BRT inspired by Latin American Cities’ BRT model for dense cities Most CAPEX with National Funds. Expectations of no/reduced OPEX subsides Joburg, Cape Town, NMB and Tshwane launched IRPTN service. Other to follow. Source: http://mimoa.eu/images/26501_l.jpg Source: MyCiti

REA VAYA Pioneer in SA, along with CPT

Rea vaya REA VAYA LOWER THAN ESTIMATED REPORTED JOURNEYS Average weekday: 60K (vs. 130K) (AS OF 2016) TYPICAL REASONS (found elsewhere) STRUCTURAL REASONS Presence of parallel informal/taxi services Urban form Difficulties in user understanding Travel patterns Fare media challenges Fare evasion Other… (convenience, etc) Reported journeys and operating cost recovery at 1/3 of original estimates Structural reasons prescribe BRT potential Source: Rea Vaya

South Africa’s unique urban form Apartheid-legacy urban form. Post-1994: spatial segregation has remained stark. City core with employment and opportunities High-density low-income “townships” Low density suburbs with single family detached housing

Gauteng’s DENSITY MAP Source: Compiled from difference sources

SOUTH AFRICAN CITIES, INCLUDING JOBURG, ARE NOT LIKE LATIN AMERICAN CITIES Compare densities of cities of similar population Latin American Cities are typically dense, South African cities are not.

LATIN AMERICAN CITIES DENSItY MAPS BOGOTA, COLOMBIA SAO PAULO, BRAZIL Mexico City (Peak residential density: 48,300 people/km2, 2009) São Paulo (Peak residential density: 29,380 people/km2, 2009) MEXICO CITY Source: LSE Cities. https://lsecities.net/media/objects/articles/measuring-density/en-gb/ http://brandondonnelly.com/post/140880939048/residential-population-densities-compared Source: http://brandondonnelly.com/post/140880939048/residential-population-densities-compared

JOBURG TRIPS ARE NOT LIKE THOSE FOR LATIN AMERICAN CITIES South Africa metros: long, unidirectional, highly concentrated peak travel. South Africa paratransit: Mature vs. LAC. And very capable of providing long distance, one-seat rides quickly adapting to market and urban form.

AND… REA VAYA is not like her lac siblings (I) While some indicators may not be comparative outliers…

AND… REA VAYA is not like her lac siblings (Ii) Other indicators definitely are comparative outliers (ii)

AND… REA VAYA is not like her lac siblings (III) Other indicators definitely are comparative outliers (iii) * Using bus operating cost as defined in South Africa: Payment to operators for all costs of contract, including overheads, labor, fuel, tires, and vehicle maintenance.

AND… REA VAYA is not like her lac siblings (Iv) 1.7 2.8 8.9 Other indicators definitely are comparative outliers (iv)

Vs. < 3 times (LAC Siblings) AND… REA VAYA is not like her lac siblings (v) Vs. < 3 times (LAC Siblings)

AND… REA VAYA is not like her lac siblings (vI) TRANSMILENIO (BOGOTA, COLOMBIA) REA VAYA (JOHANNESBURG, SA)- Data 2014 METROLINEA (BUCARAMANGA, COLOMBIA) Fleet, labor, fuel productivity Oversupply at off-peak Other indicators definitely are comparative outliers (iv)

SO could we characterize rea vaya as a commuter bus service? FAIRFAX COMMUTER BUSES (VA. USA) REA VAYA (JOHANNESBURG, SA)- Data 2015 LONDOUN COMMUTER BUS (VA. USA) Fairfax: Similar ridership. Much closer demand vs. supply Londoun: System shut down during midday. Special arrangements for part-time labor. And if so, which BRT features are the most valuable?

KEY takeaways Joburg (and South Africa’s) travel demand patters and urban form are structurally different to LAC cities- and so should their BRTs Structural differences are unequivocally reflected in operational and performance indicators Some similar indicators, but not for travel demand and for urban form. More closely resemble traditional commuter services. Greater resources needed (labor, equipment, fuel, etc) and low productivity. Source: LSE Cities. https://lsecities.net/media/objects/articles/measuring-density/en-gb/ http://brandondonnelly.com/post/140880939048/residential-population-densities-compared

RECOMMENDATIONS FOR SOUTH AFRICA (i) Any PT solution introduced in SA must be context sensitive For Joburg, structural attributes of travel demand and urban form dictate that there need to be some degree of OPEX subsidies to run it (as designed) Lessons apply to ANY MODE (rail, trams, BRT, etc.): Context-sensitive service plan Axiomatic assumptions (e.g. BRT = Fare recovery) have serious policy implications

RECOMMENDATIONS FOR SOUTH AFRICA (iI) BRT “flexibility of bus service” features would be more critical than BRT “Mas-level transit capacity” attributes. Multi-modalism AND integration as a response to demand patterns. Demand-responsive services (e.g. minibus taxis/e- hauling) for low density environment BRT does, and should continue to have a role in SA mobility

IF YOU WANT TO KNOW MORE information… http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/487841496920482443/pdf/115786-BRI-TransportICTConnectionsNoteweb-PUBLIC.pdf

WHY SOUTH AFRICAN CITIES ARE DIFFERENT WHY SOUTH AFRICAN CITIES ARE DIFFERENT? Comparing rea vaya with its latin American siblings THANK YOU Ramon Munoz-Raskin Senior Urban Transport Specialist rmunozraskin@worldbank.org Southern African Transport Conference 12 July 2017