A survey on opinions about climate change, climate policy and the concept of science - among young scientists in Qingdao and Hamburg (2015 and 2017) Hans von Storch123, Chen Xueen2 (陈学恩), Dennis Bray1 und Andreas Ullmann3 1Institut für Küstenforschung, Helmholtz Zentrum Geesthacht 2Institute of Physical Oceanography, Ocean University of China 中国海洋大学 3Universität Hamburg 6. März 2018 - 11. DKT, Frankfurt

Surveys: Among environmental students in Qingdao: at the Ocean University of China (OUC) in two periods from May 1 to December 31, 2015 and from September 1 to 30 2016. The respondents were recruited both from the undergraduates and from the post-graduates (master level and PhD level). About 200 Chinese students were informed about the research project through a telephone request or through social network. A total of 87 undergraduates and post-graduates completed the online survey, which was drawn up both in English and in Chinese. Among climate science students in Hamburg at the Cluster of Excellence “Integrated Climate System Analysis and Prediction” (CliSAP) at the Universität Hamburg from June 1 to June 26, 2017. The respondents were recruited from both the graduate school „School of Integrated Climate System Science“ (SICSS) and the CliSAP master's course. 42% were German nationals, 5% from Brazil and fewer from 24 other countries. A total of 116 graduates and post-graduates were contacted via email and invited to participate in the online survey. 72 individuals finished the survey leading to an overall response rate of 62 percent. The questions in the two surveys among students were identical. No publications so far.

Surveys of international climate scholars Five “Bray-and-von Storch”-surveys among international populations of climate scientists were designed and conducted, with the first in 1996 and the last in 2015, for studying their opinions on climate change, on climate models but also about the role of science and scientists in society and for policymaking. While questions were not strictly identical, many of the questions remained the same, and allow now an assessment to what extent opinions and perceptions among climate scientists have changed over time. In the presentation, some results derived from these surveys are reviewed. In the following we use results of the latest survey. Surveys of Climate Scientists’ Perceptions of the Issue of Global Warming   1996 2003 2008 2013 2015 Sample (scientists) 1000 unknown 2677 4491 3879 Distribution (countries) 5 30 35 53 Distribution means Hard Copy Electronic - uncontrolled - posting request for participation on institutional lists Electronic, controlled invitation Response Rate approximatley 40% 558 (undetermined response rate) 18% 7% 17% Number of Questions 74 106 76 132 126

Frequency of choices 1-7, in % to the question if “Climate change, whether real or anthropogenic is occurring now.” sample Not at all 2 3 4 5 6 Very much Qingdao 2.4 10.7 14.3 20.2 47.6 Hamburg 1.3 2.7 17.3 76.0 international 0.2 1.7 5.3 12.2 79.3

Summary We have run surveys among Qingdao and Hamburg students, featuring a set of identical questions, which have also been used in a series of five „Bray and von Storch“ surveys among climate researchers since 1996. We do not claim that your results would be representative for Chinese or German students; however, we propose a number of hypotheses, which need independent confirmation. There is high confidence among Hamburg that climate change is real, and that the driving case is anthropogenic; this confidence is considerably smaller in Qingdao. In Qingdao the dominant task of science is disentangling causes and effects, while in Hamburg it is „the motivation of people to act“. The simulation of clouds and precipitation is not considered good, but hydrodynamics and radiation are considered much better. Hamburg students have more confidence in models than in the other two samples.

Surveys of Climate Scientists’ Perceptions of the Issue of Global Warming   1996 2003 2008 2013 2015 Sample 1000 scientists unknown Non-probability convenience – 2677 scientists Non-probability convenience – 4491 scientists Non-probability convenience – 3879 scientists Distribution 5 countries 30 countries 35 countries 53 Distribution means Hard Copy Electronic - uncontrolled - posting request for participation on institutional lists Electronic, controlled invitation Electronic, controlled invitations Response Rate Appx. 40% 558 (undetermined response rate) Appx 18% Appx 7% Appx 17% No. Questions 74 106 76 132 126

Material and reports available on http://www.academia.edu 2015, data+code book at https://www.academia.edu/31140180/2015_survey_data.xls 2013 data+code book  at https://www.academia.edu/7454421/CliSci_2013_Data_Set_Excel_Format_with_code_book 2013 report https://www.academia.edu/5211187/A_survey_of_the_perceptions_of_climate_scientists_2013 2008 report https://www.academia.edu/5068617/CliSci2008_A_Survey_of_the_Perspectives_of_Climate_Scientist s_Concerning_Climate_Science_and_Climate_Change   1996+2003 report https://www.academia.edu/3077309/The_Perspectives_of_Climate_Scientists_on_Global_Climate_Ch ange_1996_and_2003