Real Driving Emission A proposal for a realistic temperature range Bart Degraeuwe 17 November 2018.

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The Normal Distribution

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Presentation transcript:

Real Driving Emission A proposal for a realistic temperature range Bart Degraeuwe 17 November 2018

Main objective Determine a realistic temperature range for real driving emission measurements. Following aspects are taken into account: Temperature distribution over Europe Population distribution over Europe Activity patern during the day (rush hours) 17 November 2018

Methodology Ideally the cold start temperature should be registerd during a whole year all over Europe. Then the probability distribution of this temperatures should be determined. Depending on which share (99%, 95%,...) of cold starts the regulator wants to cover, temperature limits can be derived from the temperature distribution. Practically this is not feasable. Hence, the location of cold starts was aproximated with the population density and the time of cold start was aproximated with time factors derived from traffic counts. 17 November 2018

Source data Population for 2006 data were obtained from Eurostat at 1x1km resolution Temperature data at a 28x28 km resolution were used for the year 2009 (a rather average year in terms of temperature) Time factors are based on loop detector data on Belgian roads and give a relative trafic intensity for each hour of the day 17 November 2018

Calculation Calculate for each combination of position (28x28 grid), hour (0-23) and temperature the number of occurrences. Multiply occurrences with population of the grid cell and the time factor of the hour. Aggregate this table to get occurrences per temperature and normalize the sum to 1 (100%) Remark Because we are looking for a distribution of the temperature the absolute value of the scaling factors (population and time factor) is not important 17 November 2018

Results: population and time factor weighted temperature distribution in Europe Avg: 11.9 degC Std: 7.9 degC 17 November 2018

Results: cumulative temperature distribution Some quantiles: 99% > -7 degC 95% > -2 degC 90% > 1 degC 62% > 9 deg C 17 November 2018

Day time temperature quantiles of major European cities The population and time factor weighted temperature for Europe is very similar to the temperature distribution of the major central European cities (Brussels, Strasbourg, Paris) 17 November 2018