ATMOS. MODEL (MM5/COAMPS/WRF) OCEAN MODEL (HYCOM or 3DUOM) WAVE MODEL

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Presentation transcript:

ATMOS. MODEL (MM5/COAMPS/WRF) OCEAN MODEL (HYCOM or 3DUOM) WAVE MODEL (WAVEWATCH III or WAM) Roughness length Wind-induced stress Surface fluxes SST SSH & current velocity Wave-Induced stress Coupled Atmosphere-Wave-Ocean Modeling System for Hurricane Predictions

Coupled Modeling System MM5 (PSU/NCAR) (vortex-following nests with 45, 15, 5, and 1.67 km grid spacing, NCEP analysis and AVHRR or TMI/AMSR-E SST) WAVEWATCH III (NOAA/EMC) (1/12o, 25 frequency bands, 48 directional frequency bands) HYCOM (UMiami/NRL) (1/12o, 22 vertical levels with 4-6 in the ocean mixed layer) 3DUOM (Price’s 3-D Upper Ocean Circulation Models)

(meter)

(meter)

Hurricane Frances

Tom Sanford’s floats

Float 1633: 50 km to Right in Highest Wind Tom Sanford, APL/University of Washington

Landfall Aug 27 Sept 6

Landfall

Coupled MM5-WAVEWATCH III Roughness Length (non-directional) t = tt + tw zo zo - wave-age dependent Stress Vector (directional) Mx = - tx My = - ty tx , ty - components of stress from integral of momentum input to the wave spectrum. V t

Wind-Wave Coupling Parameterization Spectra Tail Parameterization: X-component of stress from integral of momentum input to the spectrum: Growth rate of each component from measurement of pressure-slope correlation Spectrum of long waves from WAVEWATCH III; spectrum of short waves from fit to tail given below. a is adjusted to fit the highest modeled wavenumbers. b is the spreading function for the short waves.

Hurricane Frances (2004) FR RR FR RR FL RL FL RL CD CD Ck Ck

Coupled GPS Dropsondes Uncoupled

Total Surface Heat Flux Uncoupled Coupled Atmos-Wave-Ocean

Coupled Uncoupled

Coupled Atmosphere-Wave-Ocean Modeling CBLAST-Hurricane Coupled Atmosphere-Wave-Ocean Modeling Conclusions Atmosphere-Ocean coupling improves tropical cyclone intensity forecasts, especially at very high resolution when eyewalls are explicitly resolved. Wind-Wave coupling contributes to storm asymmetry that very significantly from storm-to-storm. We have developed and tested a number of air-sea coupling parameterizations for fully coupled atmosphere-wave-ocean modeling systems for hurricane prediction, which are designed to be general and easy to be implemented in both research and operational coupled models.