Dr John Stone, Urban Planning Program Westgate Tunnel EES IAC: Expert Witness Statement (additional material) Dr John Stone, Urban Planning Program Faculty of Architecture, Building and Planning  'An alternative future that serves both climate and urbanist goals is possible, but only with farsighted planning and steady policy support. It will not happen on its own.‘ Fragmented or integrated supply?

Explanations suggested in the literature: Unexpected events Understanding problems with forecasting in major urban transport project assessment Over many years, researchers have consistently observed forecasting inaccuracies in both road and rail project assessments on jurisdictions across the world (including misleading analyses of the ‘no build’ case). Explanations suggested in the literature: Unexpected events Technical problems with models Optimism bias Strategic misrepresentation Whilst there was a general recognition that the public sector needed to ‘upskill’, there was scant information on initiatives underway to do this. It would be useful to know what training programmes are being rolled out across the planning agencies to prepare for the new technologies; again this is a function of the desired role of the public sector, and overarching policy objectives. A big area left underexplored by the interviewees was the extent of the knowledge already possessed by the public sector to plan cities. While much emphasis was placed on up-skilling to better understand and engage with the technology, there was little mention of the need for the technology to engage with existing planning regulations and policy goals. For instance, in what form will discussions between the public sector and the innovators take to ensure that AV technology will act in concert with land use and built environment goals. This is essentially a question of governance, and as the rollout of AV technology draws nearer, further research will be required to understand and extend our knowledge of public-private relations as they continue to be shaped by the prospect for an AV future. Naess P. et al, 2015 Forecasting inaccuracies: “A result of unexpected events, optimism bias, technical problems, or strategic misrepresentation?”, Journal of Transport and Land Use, Vol. 8, No. 3, pp. 39–55 Flyvbjerg, B. 2013, "Quality Control and Due Diligence in Project Management: Getting Decisions Right by Taking the Outside View," International Journal of Project Management, vol. 31, no. 5, May, pp. 760–774 Flyvbjerg, B. 2008, “Curbing Optimism Bias and Strategic Misrepresentation in Planning: Reference Class Forecasting in Practice, European Planning Studies, Vol. 16, no. 1, pp. 3-21

Flyvbjerg, 2008. p. 7

Alternative ways to meet Project objectives: the question of ‘balance’ The EES dismisses several alternatives, but many State strategic planning objectives rely on a achieving a better competitive balance between passenger car and public transport for many transport tasks. The imperatives of climate change and rising inequality mean that all major investment must improve this balance. It seems highly challenging for planners to manage such an evolving area with an abundance of players inhabiting the market. Should integration be a goal, however, (and this remains a matter where there was no consensus) there was a sense in the transcripts that this wasn’t being fostered directly. E.

Vuchic, V R 1999, Transportation for Livable Cities, Rutgers University Press, New Brunswick, NJ. p. 240.

Vuchic, V R 1999, Transportation for Livable Cities, Rutgers University Press, New Brunswick, NJ. p. 242.