QRA Guideline - update Marcello Oliverio February 6, 2018 Business Development

History ~ 2015 PSMD decision made to update the 2004 risk assessment guideline Regulatory need – Ontario, B.C. Initial decision QRA only - focused on Total Risk Public Risk only Draft 00 written by MO  reviewed by FH / SM October 2016 (Quebec City conference) – decision made (by vote) to add: Occupational risk from process safety events Appendix providing technical details Draft 01 currently being written

Updated Purpose Develop a guideline that can be used for completing QRAs People risk only Manny Marta  Environmental risk Document that can be adopted by regulators Linked to CSA Z767 PSM standard Process risk assessment and risk reduction element Technical Purpose Risk management / QRA framework Risk tolerance criteria – individual risk / societal risk / public / workers Point to other technical sources for modelling Include guidance on assumptions and modelling inputs Goal  increase QRA quality & consistency

Linkage to CSA Z767

Quality Assurance Main Body Appendices Section 1 Introduction Background & purpose Scope Appendix 1 Public and Occupational Accident Statistics Section 2 Risk Management Framework Defining safety / Defining risk Risk Management Evaluation of risk (+ criteria) Appendix 2 Hazard identification additional information Risk reduction / ALARP Life cycle QRA Appendix 3 Consequence analysis additional information Section 3 Risk Analysis Hazard identification Consequence analysis Frequency analysis Risk estimation Uncertainties Appendix 4 Frequency analysis additional information Section 4 Project Tasks QRA Work Plan / 3rd party proposal Calculation Notes QRA Report Quality Assurance

Current status of Draft 01 guideline All writing by Marcello Oliverio Main Body Section 1 – completed Section 2 – completed Section 3 – 80% complete Section 4 – not started Appendices Appendix 1 – complete Appendix 2 – complete Appendix 3 – 50% complete Appendix 4 – not started Appendices 2, 3 and 4 contain technical information to support “accurate” and “reproducible” QRA Example of information: Default hole sizes Jet fire exposure time Dispersion concentration averaging time Sources of information, include Dutch BEVI IOGP documents CCPS QRA handbook HSE FRED database

Path forward – for discussion Tentative dates Reviewers by invitation ?????