Upstream Innovations in Shale Production Energy Technologies and Innovations: A Disturbance in the [Market] Force George Washington University / April 12, 2018 Panel 2: Hydrocarbons Strike Back: Innovations to Maintain the Status Quo Upstream Innovations in Shale Production Sidney Green Enhanced Production, Inc. / Univ. of Utah
Crude Oil Price Natural Gas Price $/BBL 2013 to Today Natural Gas Price $/1000 BTU 2013 to Today
Changes from 2013 to 2018 Drilling Efficiency (BBL/Day per Drill Rig)…..…..…..…. up 300-400 % Hydraulic Fracturing Efficiency ……………………………….….……… up 30 % Pad Drilling Efficiency ………………….……………… cost down 30 % to 50% (Walking Rigs & 30+ Wells / Pad) Well-to-Well Production Variation……… from 4-6 fold down to 2 fold (Measurement While Drilling Guidance) Production from Drilling Better Properties ………….…..….…… up 30 % (Focus on Specific Properties) Completion Cost Reduction ……………………………….……… down 20-25 % Breakeven Cost / BBL …………………...………from $70 down to $30--$40 Estimates by Sidney Green 3-2018
Changes in Past Five Years 2013 2018 Lateral Well Length (feet) …….… 6,000….…..…… 10,000 (up to 15,000) Pounds Sand / Foot ………………….600-700 ………..…………. 1,900-2000 Cluster Spacing (feet) ………………… 80 …………..………………… 20 Fracture Stages Per Well …………… 15 ……………………… … 80-- >100 Well Spacing (feet) …………….……… 5,000 .......…….. 1,000 down to 200 Well Production BBL/Day …… 600-700 …. 3,000-5,000 (up to 8,000) (early production but not IP) US Oil Production BBL / Day ……8.5 million ………… over 10 million . Estimates by Sidney Green 3-2018
Potential Large-Impact Innovations Longer Laterals and Injection of More Sand Leading to Increased Recovery Factor Big Data Analysis Enhanced Recovery Techniques Reduction of Wasted Injected Water & Sand Reconsidering “Rocks Matter” for New Plays New Data Becoming Available