Delphi: giving citizens a voice Jim Longhurst (UWE) ClairCity Meeting Sosnowiec, Poland 25th April 2018 This project has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No. 689289.

WP4 Objectives & Tasks This WP will engage key stakeholders across all of our partner cities from different European regions to give them the platform to generate their vision for a low carbon, clean air futures towards 2050. We will achieve this through: Citizen Delphi Engagement (Task 4.1) ClairCity Game (Task 4.2) ClairCity App (Task 4.3) Citizens and their Health (Task 4.4)

What is Delphi? Delphi method was developed at the beginning of the cold war (1944) by the US Air Force as part of Project Rand to forecast the impact of technology on warfare. Delphi may be characterized as a method for structuring a group communication process so that the process is effective in allowing a group of individuals, as a whole, to deal with a complex problem. (Linstone and Turoff, 2002) What is Delphi in ClairCity? We use the DELPHI process as a platform to engage citizens and stakeholder and empowering them to describe their personal future visions of their city.

Pilot of the Delphi Process London – January to March 2017 Testing the engagement mechanisms online surveys, face to face interviews workshops format how to obtain diversity Recommendations Identify and engage local delivery partners early Make use of local social networks to achieve diversity Guidance on ‘how’ and ‘what’ to record in sessions and in participants responses.

The ClairCity Delphi Process Round 1: Questionnaire 1 Method: Face to face at public events and online Target: 100+ participants Round 2: Questionnaire 2 Method: Online Round 3: Delphi workshop Method: Workshop (takes place 1-3 times) Target: 30+ participants ClairCity Skylines Game Stakeholder Dialogue workshop Method: Workshop

Delphi – Round 1 / Questionnaire 1 Face-to-face and online surveys. Main questions: Citizens’ main day-to-day activities, Citizens’ concerns – likes and dislikes Citizens’ views about how these may change over the next 35 years (to 2050).

Delphi – Round 2 / Questionnaire 2 Mainly online (but promoted at events). This round is about beginning to shape consensus/dissensus around common theme(s). It enables respondents to think about the themes highlighted by respondents in Round 1. Part 1 follows on from the activity-based travel/home heating/other city specific questions from Round 1; Part 2 asks respondents to state whether they agree or disagree with a set of ambitious policy measures that would affect their day-to-day activities.

Delphi – Round 3 / Delphi Workshop Representative sub-group of Round 2 participants were invited to attend one or more 2-3-hour Delphi workshop(s). Participants were presented with information about air quality, climate change and health. They were presented with the responses to the Round 2 and asked to consider how the ambitious policy measures would affect their lives if implemented, and how their implementation could be facilitated.

Delphi – From Bristol to Sosnowiec City/region Round 1 Round 2 Round 3 Total Bristol 500 230 59 789 Amsterdam 638 269 6 913 Sosnowiec 283 116 29 428 Ljubljana 198 72 3 273 Liguria Region 646 456 19 1121 Aveiro Region 794 280 33 1107 3,049 1,423 149 4,631

Sosnowiec: Preliminary Results What do we like? What do we dislike? What can we improve?

Sosnowiec: ‘Positive’ Policy Measures

Sosnowiec: ‘Negative’ Policy Measures

Delphi – Cross city lessons Not just about one city but what can we learn from multiple cities Can the perceived social and policy barriers of City X be overcome buy the opportunities and experience of City Y? For example: Pedestrianisation of the city centre in Ljubljana Active travel in Amsterdam Solid fuel burning in Sosnowiec Mopeds in Liguria region Clean air zones in Bristol Multi governance collaboration in Aveiro region

What happens next? Delphi results act as the foundation for future policy development Delphi process provides a platform to raise awareness and great understanding. Results inform our understanding of social behaviour, public perceptions, supposed constraints and opportunities (WP3) Results feed into the database behind the ClairCity Skylines Game (WP4.2) Results underpin the ClairCity Scenarios and final ClairCity Policy Packages (WP7)

Thank You! Jim Longhurst (UWE) ClairCity Meeting Sosnowiec, Poland 25th April 2018 This project has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No. 689289.